What if Gustavus Adolphus hadn't been killed at the Battle of Lützen? Would his survival have shortened the Thirty Years' War? What other effects might it have had?
 
One immediate consequence would be that the Swedish kept their momentum as IOTL the protestant league suffered from a lack of leadership after the death of Gustavus Adolphus.
The Swedish are also unlikely to suffer a defeat, or at least avoid a total disaster at Nordlingen 2 years later which result was the peace of Prague which most of the German princes were willing to sign and the direct intervention of France in the war which so far only provided a financial help to the protestants.
 

gurgu

Banned
as @Legault says we would have a better Sweden, also if he lives way longer maybe a male heir would be born and thus Vasa extinction avoided. Maybe, with french intervention Sweden wins the 30 year war, give territories to France as thanks and then enforces protestant religion in the empire and take the imperial crown.
In my opinion a protestant empire might be able to regain some centralization( no more papal influence) and thus at least make hereditary the crown( Sweden or Prussia). with no Westphalia but protestant victory, Protestantism might spread even more( Poland trying to take the crown might become protestant, Ireland and few others).
i repeat it a very BIG maybe, not sure( although Gustavus boy is my favorite king, lion from the north Sabaton)
 
What if Gustavus Adolphus hadn't been killed at the Battle of Lützen? Would his survival have shortened the Thirty Years' War? What other effects might it have had?

The main problem with GA was an absence of the clear political goals beyond making Baltic into the Swedish Lake. So we can make any number of the plausible guesses. However, it seems that even the Protestant princes of Germany started getting fed up with the Swedish looting and extortions (and with not being treated as the equal partners) so they could be willing to make a deal with the Hapsburgs earlier than in OTL. This would not necessarily stop GA so the war could keep going even with a changed set of the alliances. The end game is unclear. Would GA agree to the peace that suits the Germans or would he keep fighting until running out of soldiers and money?

Another side of a coin is that with GA alive Wallenstein is still needed, which means that he has more time to build up his army and oppose GA in more favorable position: he already won at Alte Viste and Montgomery considered him a better strategist. If during the earlier stage of the war the German princes considered him too bossy, now he can pass for a relatively mild and modest creature and the imperial side may look more attractive. If the Swedes are finally crushed by the imperial-led coalition, the peace within the HRE can be more favorable for the imperial power but, OTOH, one never should underestimate possibility of a political screwup (Ferdinand III seems to be more pragmatic than his father so the earlier peace post 1637 is more likely).

Of course, even Wallenstein part is anything but certain: FII still may want to replace him with his son because the conditions on which he agreed to take charge gave him too much freedom of action. As someone remarked, he was trying to conduct the imperial policy without an emperor, which is dangerous (especially when the emperor is a fool with overinflated ego). :)

This still leaves the Spanish and French as significant factors because both had been interested in a continued war and both possessed considerable resources for enforcing their policies.
 
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gurgu

Banned
The main problem with GA was an absence of the clear political goals beyond making Baltic into the Swedish Lake. So we can make any number of the plausible guesses. However, it seems that even the Protestant princes of Germany started getting fed up with the Swedish looting and extortions (and with not being treated as the equal partners) so they could be willing to make a deal with the Hapsburgs earlier than in OTL. This would not necessarily stop GA so the war could keep going even with a changed set of the alliances. The end game is unclear. Would GA agree to the peace that suits the Germans or would he keep fighting until running out of soldiers and money?

Another side of a coin is that with GA alive Wallenstein is still needed, which means that he has more time to build up his army and oppose GA in more favorable position: he already won at Alte Viste and Montgomery considered him a better strategist. If during the earlier stage of the war the German princes considered him too bossy, now he can pass for a relatively mild and modest creature and the imperial side may look more attractive. If the Swedes are finally crushed by the imperial-led coalition, the peace within the HRE can be more favorable for the imperial power but, OTOH, one never should underestimate possibility of a political screwup (Ferdinand III seems to be more pragmatic than his father so the earlier peace post 1637 is more likely).

Of course, even Wallenstein part is anything but certain: FII still may want to replace him with his son because the conditions on which he agreed to take charge gave him too much freedom of action. As someone remarked, he was trying to conduct the imperial policy without an emperor, which is dangerous (especially when the emperor is a fool with overinflated ego). :)

This still leaves the Spanish and French as significant factors because both had been interested in a continued war and both possessed considerable resources for enforcing their policies.
There was a theory that Wallenstein after being dismissed without the honors deserved was thinking about joining forces with GA and thus bringing on his side a good portion of bohemians, if this happens the Hapsburg are screwed.
 
There was a theory that Wallenstein after being dismissed without the honors deserved was thinking about joining forces with GA and thus bringing on his side a good portion of bohemians, if this happens the Hapsburg are screwed.
Well, there are plenty of theories and it seems that, while still being in charge (2nd time), he was trying to negotiate peace with the Swedes (which he had right to do) and that after the 1st dismissal he was in some negotiations with the Swedes about coming to their service (again, completely legitimate within a contempiray framework as long as a person is not breaking an effective contract, look at von Arnim, for example).

The problem is that most of what we do know comes from the hostile sources, either Protestant writers/historians or from the Hapsburgs (with an obvious need to provide an excuse for their abysmal behavior toward a man whom they betrayed twice). The fact remains that he took his 1st dismissal obediently, not trying to rebel or to use his troops as a leverage and that after Lutzen there were just suspicions generated by the Hapsburg side to justify his dismissal and appointment of emperor’s son as a head of an army that he created. Actually, when he was called back to the service second time, he initially agreed just to raise an army and it was emperor’s insistence that he should led it. Conditions that he set and to which emperor agreed were only slightly above the standard level and could be explained by his wish to avoid repetition of the earlier scenario. He clearly underestimated Hapsburg’s dishonesty.
 

gurgu

Banned
Well, there are plenty of theories and it seems that, while still being in charge (2nd time), he was trying to negotiate peace with the Swedes (which he had right to do) and that after the 1st dismissal he was in some negotiations with the Swedes about coming to their service (again, completely legitimate within a contempiray framework as long as a person is not breaking an effective contract, look at von Arnim, for example).

The problem is that most of what we do know comes from the hostile sources, either Protestant writers/historians or from the Hapsburgs (with an obvious need to provide an excuse for their abysmal behavior toward a man whom they betrayed twice). The fact remains that he took his 1st dismissal obediently, not trying to rebel or to use his troops as a leverage and that after Lutzen there were just suspicions generated by the Hapsburg side to justify his dismissal and appointment of emperor’s son as a head of an army that he created. Actually, when he was called back to the service second time, he initially agreed just to raise an army and it was emperor’s insistence that he should led it. Conditions that he set and to which emperor agreed were only slightly above the standard level and could be explained by his wish to avoid repetition of the earlier scenario. He clearly underestimated Hapsburg’s dishonesty.
well yes, but with a surving GA he might take that decision, so...
 
well yes, but with a surving GA he might take that decision, so...

According to the known rumors, GA was not very interested. Again, hard to tell what was really going on. At least, IIRC, during the siege of Prague the Swedes were not firing at W’s palace, which was a show of respect that not 100% compatible with a theory that GA did not trust him.

But scenario of W coming to the Swedish service is quite interesting (among other things there would not be Swedish genocidal activities in Mecklenburg).
 
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Gustav Adolf was toying with the idea of splitting the Empire before Lützen - ie one protestant part and one catholic part, with himself as protestant Emperor of the northern/protestant part. The plan included marching north to subjugate the Danes, force them to cede all territory north of the Sound (ie Halland, Skåne, Blekinge, Bohuslän) and become a part of the protestant Empire. Exactly how this would be accomplished or even maintained was not really planned at that point.

If Gustav Adolf survives Lützen and the battle goes slighly better from the Swedish perspective (perhaps a better pursuit led by the King post-battle) and Nördlingen or an equilent is another Swedish victory, perhaps something could be ironed out.

Then again, in 1635 the cease fire with the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth will run out, and Sweden will have to return several very profitable Prussian ports, which will force it to gain money elsewhere - which will most likely be the protestant princes of Germany, which they won't like.
 
Gustav Adolf was toying with the idea of splitting the Empire before Lützen - ie one protestant part and one catholic part, with himself as protestant Emperor of the northern/protestant part. The plan included marching north to subjugate the Danes, force them to cede all territory north of the Sound (ie Halland, Skåne, Blekinge, Bohuslän) and become a part of the protestant Empire. Exactly how this would be accomplished or even maintained was not really planned at that point.

If Gustav Adolf survives Lützen and the battle goes slighly better from the Swedish perspective (perhaps a better pursuit led by the King post-battle) and Nördlingen or an equilent is another Swedish victory, perhaps something could be ironed out.

Then again, in 1635 the cease fire with the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth will run out, and Sweden will have to return several very profitable Prussian ports, which will force it to gain money elsewhere - which will most likely be the protestant princes of Germany, which they won't like.
IIRC, GA already was squeezing money from all parts of the HRE, including the Protestant ones, so it is a matter f how soon the Protestant princes would have to start evaluating the options and Sweden is not necessary going to be their choice of preference, especially if FII or FIII shows some flexibility.

IMO, political side of GA operations is very unclear beyond conquest and looting.
 
IIRC, GA already was squeezing money from all parts of the HRE, including the Protestant ones, so it is a matter f how soon the Protestant princes would have to start evaluating the options and Sweden is not necessary going to be their choice of preference, especially if FII or FIII shows some flexibility.

IMO, political side of GA operations is very unclear beyond conquest and looting.

That was the politics of it. Sweden could not afford to keep Gustav Adolf's new innovative army - after the campaigns in Livonia and Prussia, the 30 years' war was the only place to go to suppor the army through conquest and looting - the peasants' estate was convinced in the parliament by "better we tie our horses to their fences than they at ours" as Wallenstein had been made admiral of the Baltic Sea.

Keeping that army kept Sweden safe from Danish invasion (this was before the Dano-Swedish conflicts tilted in Sweden's favour) akin to the recent Kalmar War and the ransom of Älvsborg that nearly bankrupted Sweden.
 
He was shot or otherwise injured like in every other battle he took part in. Chances are he wont live long anyway.
 
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