WI: Gustav II Vasa lives?

In this scenario, Gustav II Vasa doesn't die in the Battle of Lützen in 1637. In fact he lives for another 20 years.

What are the likely prospects for Europe in this case?

Be inventive.........
 

Redbeard

Banned
In this scenario, Gustav II Vasa doesn't die in the Battle of Lützen in 1637. In fact he lives for another 20 years.

What are the likely prospects for Europe in this case?

Be inventive.........

If it means that Sweden and Denmark-Norway aren't at war in 1657-58 and/or a Swedish army isn't present to cross the frozen belts in the winter of 1657/58 then the consequences in Scandinavia might be huge - i.e. Denmark-Norway keeping the provinces east of Oeresund. That again will probably mean Denmark-Norway interferring more strongly in Northern Germany. Might go well, meaing a Denmark on steroids and less chances of a later German Reich based on Prussia. It might go terribly wrong meaning Denmark ending up part of some German Reich...
 
If he lives for another 20 years then there is almost a fact that Kristina will not be the queen of Sweden. He fathers atleast one more child, and a male.

But how to keep him alive for 20 years if he continues to lead the army into battle and throws himself into dangerous spots?

And i think that had he lived after Lutzen he might have gotten the idea of invading Denmark atleast once.
 
In this scenario, Gustav II Vasa doesn't die in the Battle of Lützen in 1637. In fact he lives for another 20 years.

What are the likely prospects for Europe in this case?

Be inventive.........

Please refer to him as Gustav II Adolf in the future. Though of the Vasa family we usually don't refer to him as Gustav II Vasa.

EDIT:

As for future predicaments, I agree that he would have another child if he returns home victorious. I also think that the absence of Christina will be both good (since we don't need to have a regency for fifteen years) and bad (since Karl X Gustav would not take the throne. He may have been portly, but a military genius he was).
 
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If Gustav II Adolf doesn't die in the Battle of Lützen in 1632, the 30-year war probably would've ended earlier.
 
Why? Richelieu has no desire to see Sweden rule Germany anymore than it wanted to see Austria do so. Without French funding, what can Gustavus really do?
 
If he lives for another 20 years then there is almost a fact that Kristina will not be the queen of Sweden. He fathers atleast one more child, and a male.

Why are you so sure of this? Christina was his wife's (Maria Eleonora) fourth pregnancy, and all the others ended in miscarriage or the child was stillborn. Given this history I would rather bet against a healthy son than the contrary.

Even Gustav didn't have many hopes he would have other heir - if so, why would have he ordered to educate Christina like a boy? Probably the biggest change ITTL is that he would have arranged Christina's marriage in order to secure the succession of the throne within his descendents.
 
Gustav II Adolf was toying with the idea of declaring himself a protestant Emperor of Sweden and Denmark north of the straits (meaning a direct declaration of war against Denmark) just before Lützen.

If Gustav II Adolf wins at Lützen and at Nördlingen 1634, the 30 years war might be cut ten years short - and the Danish disaster might come earlier. The breed of Generals under Gustav II Adolf, paired with him and the administrative skills of Axel Oxenstierna is probably unparalleled at this time. They can probably do what Karl X Gustav could do.
 
If Gustav II Adolf doesn't die in the Battle of Lützen in 1632, the 30-year war probably would've ended earlier.

I am not sure about that at all. Aside from the fact that it was in France's interest for the war to continue as long as possible in order to weaken its primary adversaries (the Hapsbourgs of the HRE and Spain) there was Gustav II's ambitions. Nothing I have read about the man seems to agree entirely on his character, and why exactly he decided to intervene in the 30 Years War to begin with. His stated rationale was something along the lines of "The Austrians are building a fleet in the Baltic and threatening our Empire." Later his ambition seemed to evolve into becoming some sort of quasi-overlord or "Protector" of Protestant Germany, perhaps forming a kind of league that would supplant the Holy Roman Empire in Protestant regions.
 
Gustav II Adolf was toying with the idea of declaring himself a protestant Emperor of Sweden and Denmark north of the straits (meaning a direct declaration of war against Denmark) just before Lützen.

If Gustav II Adolf wins at Lützen and at Nördlingen 1634, the 30 years war might be cut ten years short - and the Danish disaster might come earlier. The breed of Generals under Gustav II Adolf, paired with him and the administrative skills of Axel Oxenstierna is probably unparalleled at this time. They can probably do what Karl X Gustav could do.

I think Gustav alive would butterfly away the Nördlingenbattle altogether. He would see the hopelessness in attacking that position when he could have other options.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Gustav II Adolf was toying with the idea of declaring himself a protestant Emperor of Sweden and Denmark north of the straits (meaning a direct declaration of war against Denmark) just before Lützen.

If Gustav II Adolf wins at Lützen and at Nördlingen 1634, the 30 years war might be cut ten years short - and the Danish disaster might come earlier. The breed of Generals under Gustav II Adolf, paired with him and the administrative skills of Axel Oxenstierna is probably unparalleled at this time. They can probably do what Karl X Gustav could do.

Yes the only thing it would demand was that Gustav and his army could walk on water.
 
Why are you so sure of this? Christina was his wife's (Maria Eleonora) fourth pregnancy, and all the others ended in miscarriage or the child was stillborn. Given this history I would rather bet against a healthy son than the contrary.

Even Gustav didn't have many hopes he would have other heir - if so, why would have he ordered to educate Christina like a boy? Probably the biggest change ITTL is that he would have arranged Christina's marriage in order to secure the succession of the throne within his descendents.

Another probability would be that after being sure that Maria Eleonora's mental unstability was for live and she was also unable to gave birth another living child (especially the hoped son), Gustav II Adolphus probably divorce her and quickly remarried, perhaps with a Danish princess.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Another probability would be that after being sure that Maria Eleonora's mental unstability was for live and she was also unable to gave birth another living child (especially the hoped son), Gustav II Adolphus probably divorce her and quickly remarried, perhaps with a Danish princess.

The problem was that he didn't look like he was doing that in OTL, and while Christian IV did have a lot of daughters, their legitimicy was in question (they was with his wife to the left hand), through if Gustav offered a marriage, not only would Christian take the offer, it would likely intensely improve his relationship Gustav.
 
If Gustav Adolf doesn't have any more children but still lives longer he could still arrange Kristina's marriage to her cousin Karl Gustav in any case. Not being queen she doesn't have the luxury of choosing to back out, she will no doubt do what her father wishes and what is expected of her...So perhaps Karl Gustav is still king in any case, just under different auspices. The question becomes...would they be co-rulers a la William and Mary or would he be Queen's consort only. Or would Kristina pull an Ulrika Eleonora...and abdicate in his favour.

I do think the 30 years war could well end earlier... most likely in a peace brokered in some small measure by France, diminishing the power to their rivals the Hapsburgs and securing some influence for the Swedish King among the protestant northern states. A loose alliance of protection is the best I can see. The French don't want the Swedes replacing the Hapsburgs and the Electors of Saxony and Brandenburg won't want to have replaced one master with another, they probably want more independence and influence for themselves. Sweden would probably gain predominant influence though among the smaller protestant states, particularly along the Baltic littoral...could they even gain all of Pommerania in this case then instead of splitting it with Brandenburg if things are settled say 10 or so years earlier.
 
Perhaps Gustav is wounded in the battle but not killed and decides to be a bit more careful in the future and/or to take care of certain things, like his daughter's marriage and the birth of heirs, before going back to his old ways?

Of course, the army's morale might suffer if their badass king is seen as hiding away...
 
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