WI: Gustav II Adolf is captured by Poles in battle of Dirschau/Tczew

So, what if, while scouting the field before battle Gustav Adolf is attacked by polish cavalry. His horse breaks a leg and Poles manage to capture him. Royal escort's counter-attack is unsuccesful, Poles bring swedish king to their camp.
 
So, what if, while scouting the field before battle Gustav Adolf is attacked by polish cavalry. His horse breaks a leg and Poles manage to capture him. Royal escort's counter-attack is unsuccesful, Poles bring swedish king to their camp.

Fortunately, a Grantville remote-observation drone sees the whole thing, and the Grantville space-borne technoninjas drop down and kung-fu all of Poland into submission.

(Given the rate that the Ring of Fire Series is going, by 1660 Grantville will be well on the way to building an interstellar empire . . .)
 
So, what if, while scouting the field before battle Gustav Adolf is attacked by polish cavalry. His horse breaks a leg and Poles manage to capture him. Royal escort's counter-attack is unsuccesful, Poles bring swedish king to their camp.

Have any other head of goverment been captured like this? Its a bit hard to think a scenario without something like that happening
 
Gustav Adolph was actually very closed to being captured at the battle of Trzciana in 1629, when Polish cavalry destroyed Swedish cavalry ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Trzciana).
Anyway, the situation of GA is not good. Polish king, Sigismund III, still considers himself the rightful king of Sweden. OTOH, the Swedes generally do not want him back on Swedish throne. Neither do the Poles - they actually prefer him to remain in Poland and take care of Polish interests. Therefore Sigismund will have problems with Polish magnates. The Sejm will push for many territorial (whole Livonia), military and economical concessions, but IMO Poland and Lithuania will not be willing to keep fighting to get back the Swedish crown for Sigismund. Sigismund himself will of course demand that GA gives up any claims to the throne. GA will most probably refuse.
Swedish army will not be in disarray, but loss of morale will be significant. I'm not sure how many of Swedish soldiers were actually mercenaries, but many of them might defect, although Poles often were late with payment to their soldiers.
It is hard to say what Sweden's position in negotiations will be. GA is captured, therefore a regent will be nominated - most probably Axel Oxenstierna. His first duty will be to get his king back at as little cost as possible.
The most possible solution, IMO, will be more or less that the Sejm wins over the king: PLC signs a peace treaty or truce with Sweden for 20 years (or so?); the question of Swedish crown is postponed as long as the truce holds or GA is alive; Sigismund can still use the title of the King of Sweden; PLC regains all the territories taken by Sweden (Livonia, Prussia); there might also be some monetary compensations to the PLC from Sweden and GA swears he will not invade Polish territory again - after that he is free with quiet advise that if he wants military glory, there is a nice, war in Germany (which he wanted to join anyway).
Why the Sejm wins over the King? Because it happened 8 years later IOTL with the treaty of Stuhmdorf. ( Treaty of Stuhmsdorf ). Władysław IV was willing to fight, PLC finally organized really strong army - but Sweden agreed to most of Polish terms and the Sejm forced the king to accept the treaty - Poles simply didn't want to fight for more than they got by negotiations. Władysław was furious, but the Sejm didn't budge and one of the best trained and equipped armies in PLC history was mostly disbanded.

And
HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL AH.COM MEMBERS AND GUESTS!
 
Have any other head of goverment been captured like this? Its a bit hard to think a scenario without something like that happening

John II of France

Richard Lionheart (ok different situation but still imprisoned)

more recent Francis I of France

Gustav Adolph was actually very closed to being captured at the battle of Trzciana in 1629, when Polish cavalry destroyed Swedish cavalry ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Trzciana).
Anyway, the situation of GA is not good. Polish king, Sigismund III, still considers himself the rightful king of Sweden. OTOH, the Swedes generally do not want him back on Swedish throne. Neither do the Poles - they actually prefer him to remain in Poland and take care of Polish interests. Therefore Sigismund will have problems with Polish magnates. The Sejm will push for many territorial (whole Livonia), military and economical concessions, but IMO Poland and Lithuania will not be willing to keep fighting to get back the Swedish crown for Sigismund. Sigismund himself will of course demand that GA gives up any claims to the throne. GA will most probably refuse.
Swedish army will not be in disarray, but loss of morale will be significant. I'm not sure how many of Swedish soldiers were actually mercenaries, but many of them might defect, although Poles often were late with payment to their soldiers.
It is hard to say what Sweden's position in negotiations will be. GA is captured, therefore a regent will be nominated - most probably Axel Oxenstierna. His first duty will be to get his king back at as little cost as possible.
The most possible solution, IMO, will be more or less that the Sejm wins over the king: PLC signs a peace treaty or truce with Sweden for 20 years (or so?); the question of Swedish crown is postponed as long as the truce holds or GA is alive; Sigismund can still use the title of the King of Sweden; PLC regains all the territories taken by Sweden (Livonia, Prussia); there might also be some monetary compensations to the PLC from Sweden and GA swears he will not invade Polish territory again - after that he is free with quiet advise that if he wants military glory, there is a nice, war in Germany (which he wanted to join anyway).
Why the Sejm wins over the King? Because it happened 8 years later IOTL with the treaty of Stuhmdorf. ( Treaty of Stuhmsdorf ). Władysław IV was willing to fight, PLC finally organized really strong army - but Sweden agreed to most of Polish terms and the Sejm forced the king to accept the treaty - Poles simply didn't want to fight for more than they got by negotiations. Władysław was furious, but the Sejm didn't budge and one of the best trained and equipped armies in PLC history was mostly disbanded.

I think that if Poland goes for monetary compensation, peace treaty would be pretty ruinous for Sweden and Gustav would be kept until ransom is paid which may have interesting effects on Germany. As he not only doesnt have money he got from PLC otl but he lost his own funds and richest provinces of Sweden (Livonia, maybe even Estonia). And if Sigismund plays smart maybe he gets something from Sejm (yeah, thats a big if)
 
Fortunately, a Grantville remote-observation drone sees the whole thing, and the Grantville space-borne technoninjas drop down and kung-fu all of Poland into submission.

(Given the rate that the Ring of Fire Series is going, by 1660 Grantville will be well on the way to building an interstellar empire . . .)

WTF is this
 
Originally posted by MarcinL
I think that if Poland goes for monetary compensation, peace treaty would be pretty ruinous for Sweden and Gustav would be kept until ransom is paid which may have interesting effects on Germany. As he not only doesnt have money he got from PLC otl but he lost his own funds and richest provinces of Sweden (Livonia, maybe even Estonia). And if Sigismund plays smart maybe he gets something from Sejm (yeah, thats a big if)
Good point concerning the money, so Swedish role in 30 Years War is different than IOTL - Sweden gets involved later (if it gets involved at all) and with much smaller army.
As far as Sigismund getting something from the Sejm - he was not the smartest of Polish kings, and he still can use the title of the King of Sweden, that's something; or perhaps GA is forced to make Władysław his legal heir?
 
Originally posted by MarcinL
Good point concerning the money, so Swedish role in 30 Years War is different than IOTL - Sweden gets involved later (if it gets involved at all) and with much smaller army.
As far as Sigismund getting something from the Sejm - he was not the smartest of Polish kings, and he still can use the title of the King of Sweden, that's something; or perhaps GA is forced to make Władysław his legal heir?

That's may be tricky, with religious differences, Sigismund may screw this like with Moscow crown for Władysław. Maybe promising the marriage of (possible future) children of GIIA and Sigismund (or maybe future children of Władysław)?

Happy New Year!
 

CalBear

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Fortunately, a Grantville remote-observation drone sees the whole thing, and the Grantville space-borne technoninjas drop down and kung-fu all of Poland into submission.

(Given the rate that the Ring of Fire Series is going, by 1660 Grantville will be well on the way to building an interstellar empire . . .)

Do NOT ever do this again.
 
Originally posted by MarcinL
That's may be tricky, with religious differences, Sigismund may screw this like with Moscow crown for Władysław. Maybe promising the marriage of (possible future) children of GIIA and Sigismund (or maybe future children of Władysław)?

Well, Christina is only a 1 old, and Władysław is already over 30. Too much age gap, IMO - Władysław simply can not wait with marriage until his 45 or something. So perhaps a marriage between Christina and Władysław's son. He will start looking for a wife pretty quickly. He married when he was 37 IOTL. So who will the wife be? Marie Louise Gonzaga? Imprisoned by king Louis XIII at the time. Cecilia Renata of Austria? She was chosen by Polish noblemen IOTL, but she is also young.OTOH marriage made be finalized in, say, 1629 - she would be 18.
 

katchen

Banned
Originally posted by MarcinL
Good point concerning the money, so Swedish role in 30 Years War is different than IOTL - Sweden gets involved later (if it gets involved at all) and with much smaller army.
As far as Sigismund getting something from the Sejm - he was not the smartest of Polish kings, and he still can use the title of the King of Sweden, that's something; or perhaps GA is forced to make Władysław his legal heir?
That is actually good news for Sweden. Gustav Adolf;'s death at Lutzen is butterflied away and he actually stays alive for a number of years longer if he dosen't get himself killed in another battle.:)
 
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