WI: Guangxu Emperor's reforms more successful

After its defeat in the First Sino-Japanese war, the Guangxu Emperor started a series of reforms to modernize China in 1898 (Hundred Days' Reform), but was thwarted by a coup led by Empress Dowager Cixi, putting him under house arrest until his death, and reversing all his reforms.

Is there any way for the reforms to succeed? And what would be its effect in China?
 
Well, for one thing the evidence certainly doesn't suggest all the reforms were reversed- hell Cixi was part way through setting up an elected Parliament when she died in 1908 (planning started in 1906 with the first election scheduled for 1916 to give enough time to explain the idea of voting to the populace). That some reforms were rolled back is definitely true, but it's not as black and white as you're assuming.

One deeply ironic aspect is that during this period the Guangxu Emperor was deeply influenced by a collection of people, some of whom had strong links to Japan- I've seen it argued that this was essentially Tokyo's way to try and destabilise China and puppetise the country from within, or that Tokyo was unaware of a native plot to federate devised by the reformers. It's not a conclusive argument, but it's certainly possible that the first part may well have happened given that- unlike Cixi's reforms of a decade later- the Guangxu Emperor was acting without the support of the Manchu nobility and hadn't the same talent or experience with managing the complex court relationships.

Certainly the opinion at the time from British and Americans in China was that the reforms pushed by Kang and so forth and supported by the Guangxu Emperor had been devastating for the opinion of modernisation in China due to their inept planning and implementation, not to mention disconnect from reality and a strong degree of corruption and nepotism.

Overall, I think the Guangxu Emperor would probably have done a lot better to go at a slower pace and co-opt the Grand Council rather than trying to rush in and present the Manchu nobility with a fait accompli.
 
After its defeat in the First Sino-Japanese war, the Guangxu Emperor started a series of reforms to modernize China in 1898 (Hundred Days' Reform), but was thwarted by a coup led by Empress Dowager Cixi, putting him under house arrest until his death, and reversing all his reforms.

Is there any way for the reforms to succeed? And what would be its effect in China?

All measures of the 1898 reform were implemented, albeit with a four-year delay, after the Boxer War. And the result was Revolution.

The three key elements of the "late Qing Reform", known as "New Policy", were Expat Students in Japan, The Consultation Councils of the provinces, and a New Army with 28 divisions. All of these factors contributed to the revolution in 1911 (the students fermented it, the army carried it out, and the Consultation Councils legitimised it).

Not saying that such a reform would forestall the Boxer Rebellion. But even if the Boxer War didn't get as bad as OTL without Cixi's consent, Qing still had enough opportunities to be curbstomped, until the same foreign-radicalised students radicalises the New Army, who put on a revolution, which was then confirmed by some sort of consultation council.
 
All measures of the 1898 reform were implemented, albeit with a four-year delay, after the Boxer War. And the result was Revolution.

The three key elements of the "late Qing Reform", known as "New Policy", were Expat Students in Japan, The Consultation Councils of the provinces, and a New Army with 28 divisions. All of these factors contributed to the revolution in 1911 (the students fermented it, the army carried it out, and the Consultation Councils legitimised it).

Not saying that such a reform would forestall the Boxer Rebellion. But even if the Boxer War didn't get as bad as OTL without Cixi's consent, Qing still had enough opportunities to be curbstomped, until the same foreign-radicalised students radicalises the New Army, who put on a revolution, which was then confirmed by some sort of consultation council.

You shouldn't undermine the fact that Cixi executed most of the reformists and revoked all new policies beside the predecessor of the University of Beijing. Although Cixi had died by the time of the eventual revolution, trust in Qing dynasty didn't recover with her death and few people believed the second attempt of reformation was sincere unlike the last one.

Before Cixi messed things up, constitutionalists were more popular than republicans as they can give a example nearby which was known by pretty much everyone, closer culturally and turned from a country of pirates (as they were known) to a regional power that curbstomped them while the latter can only give a culture alien colonial country an ocean away that few people have ever heard of.
 
I wonder if part of the problem was that China was too bi for the monarchy to have survived.

Assuming you mean 'big' there, I don't think so. Let's say that the Guangxu Emperor is a bit more weak willed growing up. He ascends the throne with more of a feeling of reliance on Cixi, she remains 'part' of the government in an informal way (Scandalous, but no more so that being the power behind the curtain OTL) and isn't put in a position where she's left with nothing to do but try and push her pet project of rebuilding the Summer Palace, so the embezzlement from the naval funds is reduced and the government's a bit more stable. This probably isn't enough to completely avoid defeat in the First Sino-Japanese War, but it might be sufficient to make the peace less punitive- much lower and more manageable indemnities for example. Reforms are begun, but at a slower pace and are more gradual, but the end result is that without the gap and the Boxer Rebellion (because without being hit so hard in the Treaty of Shiminosheki China's able to rebuff more European advances and the Germans aren't able to stick missionaries and troops into Shangdong avoiding the initial spark and leaving the rest of the outposts either comfortably far away in the South, or close enough to be directly managed from the capital in Tianjin) the situation of 1906 is reached in 1902 or 3, and the OTL preparations for a constitutional Parliament are begun then.

We've temporarily avoided some major court arguments between the Emperor and Dowager Empress, but those are likely to blow up sooner or later. The advantage of pushing it to about a decade later is that the Guangxu Emperor is probably in better health, ditto Cixi without all the stress, so lets presume that they still fall out, only now it remains in the earlier stages of the conflict- with Cixi out of court in perhaps 1903 or 4. Her health would probably decline in the middle-to late part of the decade which might well prompt a reconciliation but the end result is that the Imperial Family makes it to 1912 or 3 to oversee the inauguration of the new parliament in a manner that can now act to defuse reformist tensions through an extended transition.

This is still requiring a lot to go right, and could still go horrendously wrong, but I don't think size is necessarily an issue.
 
Assuming you mean 'big' there, I don't think so. Let's say that the Guangxu Emperor is a bit more weak willed growing up. He ascends the throne with more of a feeling of reliance on Cixi, she remains 'part' of the government in an informal way (Scandalous, but no more so that being the power behind the curtain OTL) and isn't put in a position where she's left with nothing to do but try and push her pet project of rebuilding the Summer Palace, so the embezzlement from the naval funds is reduced and the government's a bit more stable. This probably isn't enough to completely avoid defeat in the First Sino-Japanese War, but it might be sufficient to make the peace less punitive- much lower and more manageable indemnities for example. Reforms are begun, but at a slower pace and are more gradual, but the end result is that without the gap and the Boxer Rebellion (because without being hit so hard in the Treaty of Shiminosheki China's able to rebuff more European advances and the Germans aren't able to stick missionaries and troops into Shangdong avoiding the initial spark and leaving the rest of the outposts either comfortably far away in the South, or close enough to be directly managed from the capital in Tianjin) the situation of 1906 is reached in 1902 or 3, and the OTL preparations for a constitutional Parliament are begun then.

We've temporarily avoided some major court arguments between the Emperor and Dowager Empress, but those are likely to blow up sooner or later. The advantage of pushing it to about a decade later is that the Guangxu Emperor is probably in better health, ditto Cixi without all the stress, so lets presume that they still fall out, only now it remains in the earlier stages of the conflict- with Cixi out of court in perhaps 1903 or 4. Her health would probably decline in the middle-to late part of the decade which might well prompt a reconciliation but the end result is that the Imperial Family makes it to 1912 or 3 to oversee the inauguration of the new parliament in a manner that can now act to defuse reformist tensions through an extended transition.

This is still requiring a lot to go right, and could still go horrendously wrong, but I don't think size is necessarily an issue.

I in fact did mean big :eek:
 
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