WI Guam

[Art]

Coral Sea early... And we get 2 of the 6 heavy carriers!

Hurrah! I don't think it's too much of an ameriwank, when the consider the weakness of ALL strike aircraft of the time and the early Kate/Val in particular... and so far as I know, our B-17's weren't destroyed in the air much by the A-6-M "Zero-sen." If Wake goes even as OTL, and the second invasion is cancelled, then yeah, the relief force will get through, and we'll make a Midway of Wake, instead of "Midway". And they have gone from having 300-400 first rate fighters and strike aircraft, on 6 of their heavy "fleet" carriers, to having MAYBE 200 or fewer TOTAL aircraft on 2 fleet carriers. The next fleet carrier they'll build is Taho, I think. I could be incorrect, but the next carrier that will be completed is in late '42, or early '43. The IJN is dead in the water. And the cream of their naval airforce is 50% dead by now. They only graduated 150 or less pilots every year from their naval air corps program. That was what destroyed them in the end. Their best pilots kept fighting and weren't pulled out of the line to train new ones, and all the "Kido Butai" pilots were killed in action. At Philippine Sea/Marianas Turkey Shoot, you had the greenest pilots in the most modern planes, instead of the other way round. It's worse in this scenario, because you have tons of pilots getting shot down over the sea or mostly enemy territory, and I read somewhere that often they didn't even have parachutes to save weight.

 

[Dave in St. Louis]

Hurrah! I don't think it's too much of an ameriwank, when the consider the weakness of ALL strike aircraft of the time and the early Kate/Val in particular... and so far as I know, our B-17's weren't destroyed in the air much by the A-6-M "Zero-sen." If Wake goes even as OTL, and the second invasion is cancelled, then yeah, the relief force will get through, and we'll make a Midway of Wake, instead of "Midway". And they have gone from having 300-400 first rate fighters and strike aircraft, on 6 of their heavy "fleet" carriers, to having MAYBE 200 or fewer TOTAL aircraft on 2 fleet carriers. The next fleet carrier they'll build is Taho, I think. I could be incorrect, but the next carrier that will be completed is in late '42, or early '43. The IJN is dead in the water.

Fleet carriers

Hiyō. 1942. A liner conversion.
Junyō. 1942. Another liner conversion.
Taiho. 1944. Purpose built.
Unryū. 1944. Purpose built - Modified Hiryu class.
Sninano. 1944. A battleship conversion - Yamato class.

 

[Bearcat]

The IJN has already lost the cream of its carrier aviation here. This is orders of magnitude worse than OTL.

Relieving Bataan is still a long shot. Running carriers in against strong land based air is counter to everyone's doctrine at this time.

One thought I have though is, what about Saipan. How strongly is it held?

Check out Calbear's Pacific War Redux for one view of how to take it before the IJA can build it up into a strong point.

If you unhinge the Japanese in the Marianas, nothing else much matters. they're screwed, and soon. Subs operating from there can amke many war patrols to the home islands. Even with crappy torpedoes, one in three or four will work.

Not to mention the air attrition that will ensue.

At that point, the clock is just ticking off the days to the mass arrival of the Essex class, amphibious shipping, and the B-San.

 

[kent]

The IJN has already lost the cream of its carrier aviation here. This is orders of magnitude worse than OTL.

Relieving Bataan is still a long shot. Running carriers in against strong land based air is counter to everyone's doctrine at this time.

One thought I have though is, what about Saipan. How strongly is it held?

Check out Calbear's Pacific War Redux for one view of how to take it before the IJA can build it up into a strong point.

If you unhinge the Japanese in the Marianas, nothing else much matters. they're screwed, and soon. Subs operating from there can amke many war patrols to the home islands. Even with crappy torpedoes, one in three or four will work.

Not to mention the air attrition that will ensue.

At that point, the clock is just ticking off the days to the mass arrival of the Essex class, amphibious shipping, and the B-San.

Saipan now has what is left the South Seas Detatchment about 2500 men out of almost 6000. All most all equipment on the bottom of the Pacific around Guam. But Guam only has three Marine Companies, two Batteries of 105mm guns, and the security company for the airfields. Oh and 5 M-3 tanks. I can not see planing to take Saipan at this time. Maybe some of the closer islands like Rotan. The story will continue....

 

[sloreck]

No way to take Saipan at this point. while the USMC had been developing amphib warfare doctrine, and finally equipment, beginning in the early 1930s there were not enough trained Marines nor landing craft (early non-ramp Higgins boats) to do an amphibious assault in early 1942. May/June timeframe (moving up Guadalcanal by 3 months or so is doable). Amphib trained army units were very minimal, they had gotten interested late in the game. Don't forget very soon the army will be focused on a landing in Europe, eventually settling on N. Africa (TORCH-OTL 11/42) & this will go as planned because of the "Germany first" strategy, the need to help the UK & the "second front" demands of the USSR.

 

[kent]

No way to take Saipan at this point. while the USMC had been developing amphib warfare doctrine, and finally equipment, beginning in the early 1930s there were not enough trained Marines nor landing craft (early non-ramp Higgins boats) to do an amphibious assault in early 1942. May/June timeframe (moving up Guadalcanal by 3 months or so is doable). Amphib trained army units were very minimal, they had gotten interested late in the game. Don't forget very soon the army will be focused on a landing in Europe, eventually settling on N. Africa (TORCH-OTL 11/42) & this will go as planned because of the "Germany first" strategy, the need to help the UK & the "second front" demands of the USSR.

The change here is that Guam and Wake are holding. The American public has heroes. More attention to Pacific not less to Europe just more to Pacific.

 

[Gridley]

This small convoy would be covered by the USS Yorktown and USS Hornet newly arrived at Pearl from the Atlantic.

IOTL USS Hornet didn't arrive until March 11th; a combination of working-up and a few preliminary tests for the Doolittle Raid. She'd only commissioned on October 20th of 1941; less than three months is really fast to work up a carrier and shift it to the Pacific.

Given how well Guam is doing Doolittle might not be seen as necessary or as high a priority, though I think it would still go ahead. As you noted, the public is saying "OK, we're holding them, why aren't we hitting back?" To the public, Doolittle looks like hitting back.

How are things in the Philippines? ABDA?

 

[kent]

IOTL USS Hornet didn't arrive until March 11th; a combination of working-up and a few preliminary tests for the Doolittle Raid. She'd only commissioned on October 20th of 1941; less than three months is really fast to work up a carrier and shift it to the Pacific.

Given how well Guam is doing Doolittle might not be seen as necessary or as high a priority, though I think it would still go ahead. As you noted, the public is saying "OK, we're holding them, why aren't we hitting back?" To the public, Doolittle looks like hitting back.

How are things in the Philippines? ABDA?

Your right timing is wrong for Hornet. Will change to Lexington.
Thanks for the input.

 

[kent]

Japanese Gains​

Japans Army and Navy except for Guam and Wake were having success in all the other areas,
Malaya was being occupied and the Singapore garrison was on it’s last legs and expected to fall by mid-February. IJA troops were ready to start the advance into the Dutch East Indies. Plans were for the first troops to land on Sumatra by January 10th. The American army in the Philippines had been driven onto Bataan, without most of it’s supplies. It was only a matter of time for it to surrender. All ready efforts to supply the Philippines had been reduced to what submarines could carry. Supplies to the DEI were having to be shipped to Australia then to Darwin and up the through the Java Sea to Java and Sumatra. Guam by holding had slowed the Japanese efforts to cut the supply lines in the South Pacific. Troops and ships planed to move South had been stopped. Two carriers were lost, two more damaged, numerous cruisers and destroyers damaged or lost. The South Seas Detachment reduced to 2500 men with no equipment on Saipan.

Plans had to be changed the IJN Zuikaku flight deck repairs would be speeded up and work to repair the torpedo damage on IJN Shokaku would be accomplished faster. Should it be needed work crews
for the Shokaku would be taken from other ship building projects. Aircraft and pilot losses were more than had been planed for. Training for new pilots would have to be looked at to see if the way training was being done would work for a longer war than originally planed for. Transfer of IJA air units to Saipan and additional troops and equipment would be accelerated. Additional transports and freighters would be moved to Yap then on to Saipan. The Marshall Islands would receive reinforcements of IJA air units so as to keep pressure on Wake Island but any invasion plans would be put on hold until after Guam was taken.

Guam had become a bottleneck that if left untaken could open the way for American reinforcement of the Philippines or provide a way to have supplies shipped there and the DEI without the long leg to Australia.
Orders were given, plans made, Guam to be taken by mid-March.

 

[Gridley]

I wonder if the IJN will send in some of its batteline? Guam is a fairly long haul, but with Kido Butai so weakened the idea of pounding the island flat with large-caliber fire (close the airfield for good by wrecking all the base infrastructure, smash the beach defenses, etc.) might have some appeal.

IOTL the IJN did bombard Guadalcanal with battleships on a few occasions.

 

[kent]

I wonder if the IJN will send in some of its batteline? Guam is a fairly long haul, but with Kido Butai so weakened the idea of pounding the island flat with large-caliber fire (close the airfield for good by wrecking all the base infrastructure, smash the beach defenses, etc.) might have some appeal.

IOTL the IJN did bombard Guadalcanal with battleships on a few occasions.

That just might work. I'll think about the use of not only Japanese fast Battleships, but maybe having one or two American BB with a supply convoy. This will take more thought. Doolittle raid will happen.

 

[kent]

St Patrick's Day

​

All during the rest of January and February 1942 Japanese and American forces on Saipan and Guam raided each other by air. The American edge of having B-17s able to keep the airfield on Saipan closed due to bomb damage was off set by the Japanese zeal to repair it each night. By the end of February Japanese losses had left Saipan with only three Zeros and no attack aircraft. American combat losses had been 2 more B-17s lost along with 2 of the SBD Dauntless and 5 of the F4F fighters. Guam had received 20 more P-40s and now had 10 B-17s at Barrigada, Also ten of the new P-38 Lightings had been shipped in. Guam had eight SPD Dauntless, five A-20 Havoc and three TBD Devastators as well as 23 P-40s (the three damaged had been repaired) and ten F4F wildcats along with the ten P-38 lightings. The next supply convoy would include the Oregon National Guard Division the 41st. And more Havocs and P-40s. Fifteen more SBD Dauntless dive bombers that would be flown in off the USS Yorktown so as to give Guam an even stronger combined Navy and Army airpower. The Army engineers started work on another airfield by Cocos Lagoon. No Japanese shipping had been seen off Saipan after the escorts remaining of the South Seas Detachment had retired to Yap.
　
Plans were made to land troops on Rota Island some 90 miles off Guam and build yet another air field there. Chamorro scouts reported no Japanese troops on Rota other than a small communications staff. To insure the success of this operation the Pacific Fleet Headquarters made the decision to send a strong taskforce that would have the USS Yorktown and Lexington and their escorts as a covering force. While two of the American battleships The USS Colorado BB-45, and the USS New Mexico BB-40 along with three heavy cruisers, the USS San Francisco, Salt lake City and Indianapolis, and eight destroyers would be used to shell Saipan and add further protection to the relief convoy to Guam. The decision to send the two battleships had been hard but this large convoy had to get to Guam as Guam had to be held. With Japan having no air assets left on Saipan it was a risk to be taken. Pacific Fleet intelligence thought that with most of Japans Central Pacific naval units at Yap, the largest of which was two heavy cruisers that everything should work out right.

The Oregon NG division had at the start of the war on it’s way to the Philippines and had been diverted to Australia then on to New Caledonia The transports to move it to Guam along with it’s escorts two American CA the San Francisco and Salt Lake City with 4 destroyers departed on March 3 from New Caledonia for Guam. The Lexington with it’s escorts would as act as an air covering force for the trip into the Central Pacific then would join with the Yorktown to cover the landing on Rota Island, and bombardment of Saipan.

The Naval department in Washington DC thought if this works as planed then maybe a convoy could go from Guam to Bataan. The knowledge that 4 of Japans top carriers were either sunk or damaged was changing minds about reinforcement of both the DEI and the Philippines. the taskforce from Pearl and New Caledonia were set to meet at Guam on St Patrick’s Day, the 17th of March.

Repairs on the flight deck of the Zuikaku were finished by February 25 1942. The Akagi, Soryu and repaired Zuikaku would act once again as a covering force to first reinforce Saipan and then to take Guam. Two fast Japanese battleships would be sent from the home fleet, the Kirishima and Hiei, along with three CA the Mikuma, Tone and Kinugasa, two light cruisers the Tenryu and Yura as well as 10 destroyers. They would join up with the remaining original escorts of the South Seas Detachment and proceed to Saipan to land an Army Division from the Home Islands as well as an Army air unit of bombers and fighters. Then the Army units and the Battle line would move on Guam. Plans were for everything to be in place by the 17 of March.
　

 

[Orry]

St Patrick's Day​

All during the rest of January and February 1942 Japanese and American forces on Saipan and Guam raided each other by air. The American edge of having B-17s able to keep the airfield on Saipan closed due to bomb damage was off set by the Japanese zeal to repair it each night. By the end of February Japanese losses had left Saipan with only three Zeros and no attack aircraft. American combat losses had been 2 more B-17s lost along with 2 of the SBD Dauntless and 5 of the F4F fighters. Guam had received 20 more P-40s and now had 10 B-17s at Barrigada, Also ten of the new P-38 Lightings had been shipped in. Guam had eight SPD Dauntless, five A-20 Havoc and three TBD Devastators as well as 23 P-40s (the three damaged had been repaired) and ten F4F wildcats along with the ten P-38 lightings. The next supply convoy would include the Oregon National Guard Division the 41st. And more Havocs and P-40s. Fifteen more SBD Dauntless dive bombers that would be flown in off the USS Yorktown so as to give Guam an even stronger combined Navy and Army airpower. The Army engineers started work on another airfield by Cocos Lagoon. No Japanese shipping had been seen off Saipan after the escorts remaining of the South Seas Detachment had retired to Yap.
　
Plans were made to land troops on Rota Island some 90 miles off Guam and build yet another air field there. Chamorro scouts reported no Japanese troops on Rota other than a small communications staff. To insure the success of this operation the Pacific Fleet Headquarters made the decision to send a strong taskforce that would have the USS Yorktown and Lexington and their escorts as a covering force. While two of the American battleships The USS Colorado BB-45, and the USS New Mexico BB-40 along with three heavy cruisers, the USS San Francisco, Salt lake City and Indianapolis, and eight destroyers would be used to shell Saipan and add further protection to the relief convoy to Guam. The decision to send the two battleships had been hard but this large convoy had to get to Guam as Guam had to be held. With Japan having no air assets left on Saipan it was a risk to be taken. Pacific Fleet intelligence thought that with most of Japans Central Pacific naval units at Yap, the largest of which was two heavy cruisers that everything should work out right.

The Oregon NG division had at the start of the war on it’s way to the Philippines and had been diverted to Australia then on to New Caledonia The transports to move it to Guam along with it’s escorts two American CA the San Francisco and Salt Lake City with 4 destroyers departed on March 3 from New Caledonia for Guam. The Lexington with it’s escorts would as act as an air covering force for the trip into the Central Pacific then would join with the Yorktown to cover the landing on Rota Island, and bombardment of Saipan.

The Naval department in Washington DC thought if this works as planed then maybe a convoy could go from Guam to Bataan. The knowledge that 4 of Japans top carriers were either sunk or damaged was changing minds about reinforcement of both the DEI and the Philippines. the taskforce from Pearl and New Caledonia were set to meet at Guam on St Patrick’s Day, the 17th of March.

Repairs on the flight deck of the Zuikaku were finished by February 25 1942. The Akagi, Soryu and repaired Zuikaku would act once again as a covering force to first reinforce Saipan and then to take Guam. Two fast Japanese battleships would be sent from the home fleet, the Kirishima and Hiei, along with three CA the Mikuma, Tone and Kinugasa, two light cruisers the Tenryu and Yura as well as 10 destroyers. They would join up with the remaining original escorts of the South Seas Detachment and proceed to Saipan to land an Army Division from the Home Islands as well as an Army air unit of bombers and fighters. Then the Army units and the Battle line would move on Guam. Plans were for everything to be in place by the 17 of March.
　

Americans not reading the Japanese mail? They have not picked up on the Japanese plans?

 

[Gridley]

I hope there are a bunch of fleet oilers with that TF...

BTW, USS Colorado didn't complete her refit until March IOTL. I suggest sending along USS Mississippi and USS Idaho since they were in BatDiv 3 along with the USS New Mexico. Luckily, they were the longest-ranged of the old battlewagons and thus will need the least refueling.

 

[kclcmdr]

Isn't the speed of the USS Mississippi and USS Idaho less than 25 Knots..?

They might not keep up with the speedier carriers running at 30 Knots....

Are any of the newer USS Battleships available??
Having 30+ Knot Battleships w 16 in guns will go far against the Kirishima and Hiei....,

Guam needs more PBYs or at least base them at Wake Is....
tho I'm not too sure the island has a good anchorage to hold that many in order to maintain a continuous surveillance of the region and maybe search the Northern region of the approaches to Guam... possibly too far away....

 

[Hyperion]

Americans not reading the Japanese mail? They have not picked up on the Japanese plans?

I agree on this count. So far there has been no suggestion that the US has lost the ability to read Japanese intelligence. A force this large will be noticed.

I would also have to question the wisdom of the Doolittle Raid being done in this scenario. As much as a way of hitting back as it was, it was also a major political move and a moral booster considering the losses the allies had suffered IOTL.

Here, things are not going perfectly, but things are still better than OTL. I just don't see the reason to conduct the Doolittle Raid. That being said, a squadron of B-25s on Guam would be a good addition to the island defenses.

Agree that more PBYs could/should be stationed at Guam.

 

[Bearcat]

I agree on this count. So far there has been no suggestion that the US has lost the ability to read Japanese intelligence. A force this large will be noticed.

In March, our ability to read Japanese code was limited. I believe we could read one in every ten or twenty 'words' at about that time. Enough to know something was up, not enough to necessarily pin it down. Remember Rochefort had to us the stratagem of sending a fake message about Midway's water supply in May to confirm that Midway was 'MI' for instance.

So at this time, you have to realize the intel advantage the US held is there, but not nearly as decisive as three months later.

 

[sloreck]

More PBYs at Guam very doable, an asset that was available & would be very valuable. While I agree that there would be more attention to the Pacific with Guam (and Wake) holding, the decisions made between the US & UK before Pearl Harbor, and the pressure from the USSR for a "second front" will still have TORCH go forward. One of the great fears of the US & UK was that Stalin, who had cut a deal with Hitler in 1939, would be willing to make another deal (like Brest-Litovsk in WW1 by Lenin) trading lots of territory for an armistice. Sure - it would probably be inevitable there would be a rematch, but Stalin would live to fight another day and in the mean time the fascists and the capitalists would bleed each other. Maybe TORCH is a little smaller, and the buildup of the USAAF in the UK a little slower but the reality is that the resources needed for Guam & the Pacific at this time ae not the same ones that are needed for Europe. Moving things up a little & sending the assets that were eventually used for Guadalcanal & New Guinea that way will do it.

 

[kent]

Rather respond to each question:

I used USS Colorado BB45 thinking that Bremerton Navy Yard could have pushed refit/overhaul due to damage at Pearl Harbor of the Battle line.They (the Navy Yard )was finished by early March could have been pushed to mid or late Feb.
New Mexico transfered to Pacific around same time as Yorktown.

BBs along with the Indy and 4 destroyers are with convoy of equipment from Pearl speed is not a problem slow freighters. The Yorktown and escorts is covering at a distance.

The other two CA SFO and SLC are covering with 4 more destroyers the movement of the Oregon NG from the South Pacific to Guam with the Lexington and escorts covering from a distance.

With no movement by Japan, south to the Bismark Islands and other South Pacific Islands, due to the loss of the South Seas Detatchment troops, transports and escorts at Guam. There is no need for building up forces there. Maybe now FDR will let MacArthur twist in the wind with his troops.

Guam still has six PBYs will add more in next update.

Due to losses at Guam the last time around. Codes have been changed.

Hope that clears up some of my thoughts for this AH time line.

 

[Hyperion]

Due to losses at Guam the last time around. Codes have been changed.

Hope that clears up some of my thoughts for this AH time line.

That is actually pretty pathetic on your part. I mean no offense, as this has been a good timeline to now. But seriously.

US Navy read Japanese codes at Coral Sea: Japan changed nothing.

US Navy read Japanese codes at Midway: Japan changed nothing.

US Navy bairly had anything from code breakers here, and Japan changes everything?

That is bordering on ASB my friend.