WI: Gregory the Patrician wins at Sufetula?

In C.E. 647, The Byzantine Exarch of Africa (known as Gregory the Patrician) declared independence from Byzantium. His motivations were both religious and political, dealing with the debate between Monotheletism and Chalcedonianism and the failure of Constantinople to stop the Arab invasion of Egypt.

However, Gregory died before his ambitions could be realized. At the battle of Sufetula in 647/8, he was slain in a conflict with the caliphate, who seem to have had 40,000 troops during the battle. Information on Gregory's troop numbers has proved elusive, save for a citation-less claim somewhere on Wikipedia that he had 100,000 Amazigh men during the battle, which seems dubious at best.

A more detailed description of the battle says that originally, the Arabs sent a force of 20,000 soldiers, which resulted in a pitched battle with Gregory's forces. However, Ibn Al-Zubayr arrived with an additional 20,000, and they proceeded to be victorious.

After the battle, the Muslims retreated from Africa on the agreement that Gregory's successor pay them a hefty annual tribute, being unable to storm the Byzantine fortresses the defenders retreated to. Byzantine rule in Africa was severely weakened by Gregory's rebellion, although the new Exarch continued providing the correct tax to Constantinople.

So, enough of the background! What would be most likely to happen if Gregory had not died in battle, and as a result would have won the battle? Or the other way around, depending on when Al-Zubayr's forces get there. Would we see an independent North African state, or would it just slow the Muslims down a bit? Interested to hear any opinions on the matter!
 
Last edited:
What would be most likely to happen if Gregory had not died in battle, and as a result would have won the battle? Or the other way around, depending on when Al-Zubayr's forces get there. Would we see an independent North African state, or would it just slow the Muslims down a bit? Interested to hear any opinions on the matter!

The most likely scenario - he would just slow down the Arabs down a bit.
The best case scenario:
Gregory happens to be a great charismatic general and politician on a scale of Napoleon and Chengiz Khan. He creates a great North African Empire which unites the Berbers and Romans around the idea of defending their motherland against the invading Arabs.
By the way North Africa is very well protected by nature against the invasion from Egypt. The Arabs are in hard situation at least till they get their own fleet. So Gregory after the first victory has some breathing space.
 
Later Roman African leaders apparently were able to hold off the Arabs, even while paying tribute to both Byzantium and the Caliphate, until 698. Apparently, the later Exarchs had a great deal of help from the Visigothic Kingdom at this point, and the reason it took so long for the Arabs to do it was because of a victory in 682 at the Battle of Biskra.

Gregory might have been able to hold him off, as in later times the Exarchate had a great deal of help from both the Amazighs (Berbers) and the Visigoths. In addition, he seems to have had at least partial support from the current Pope (Theodore I).

I wonder, if a large enough victory for Africa were to happen, would he have been able to gain Sicily / the Exarchate of Ravenna? Sardinia and Corsica would already have been his, and if the Pape supported him, and Byzantium was all the way in Greece...

Also, I was never really thinking that he'd found a great empire. Just that it would end up being a regional power that could keep the Caliphates from getting past them, like the Khazars. I'm not quite sure that Old Greg would be able to annihilate the Caliphate, or something equally absurd.

Edit: I see that you already know a bit about North African Romans (the Southern Rome TL), so anything else about the scenario that you have to say would be appreciated!

Also forgot to add that the two generals (Ibn Al-Zubayr and Abdullah Ibn Saad) were both pretty important people in the early Caliphate. Ibn Saad was an important naval commander. And Al-Zubayr eventually declared himself Caliph and cause quite a bit of grief in Arabia because of it.
 
Last edited:
Insufficient data, as you found in part from not being able to source the size of Gregory's army to tell if he could have won. So, I guess it's a good thing your POD is simply "If he won".

Poor Gregory, you beat the Arabs the first time round, now you've gone and made them angry.:D

I would agree with Russian, that Gregory would only have been a speed bump, at best, to the Arab advance, once they decided to return. In defeat or victory, it would appear that the Arabs would have backed off to consolidate, anyway. Which they did OTL. So, a surviving Gregory gets a breathing space, to do what?

If he somehow managed to defeat ibn Sa'ad decisively, maybe he would gain sufficient prestige to cement support of the Berber tribes as well as to have a greater chance of receiving overseas aid. That might be an achievable best case scenario: The Exarchate is better prepared to receive a return visit from their unwanted visitors from the East. I think it very likely it is, in the end, a losing battle and Byzantine Africa gains a few more years at best over the OTL 50 years they survived after Gregory's defeat.
 
Insufficient data, as you found in part from not being able to source the size of Gregory's army to tell if he could have won. So, I guess it's a good thing your POD is simply "If he won".

Well the way I see it, if it was a pitched battle before the twenty thousand reinforcements, then it wouldn't be too ASB for Gregory to manage a minor victory, or at least a retreat. Any number of things could change the tide of a pitched battle, especially when one is left to form the exact details from various sources.

Poor Gregory, you beat the Arabs the first time round, now you've gone and made them angry.:D

I would agree with Russian, that Gregory would only have been a speed bump, at best, to the Arab advance, once they decided to return. In defeat or victory, it would appear that the Arabs would have backed off to consolidate, anyway. Which they did OTL. So, a surviving Gregory gets a breathing space, to do what?

That was a big part of my original question, though I'm unsure if I made sure of that very quickly. I was thinking more of just resisting long enough, while probably losing some territory(Even Tunisia, maybe), to more or less have an uneasy peace with the Arabs. To my understanding, the Khazars did more or less that same thing, and the Caliphate seems to have been stronger at that point.

If he somehow managed to defeat ibn Sa'ad decisively, maybe he would gain sufficient prestige to cement support of the Berber tribes as well as to have a greater chance of receiving overseas aid. That might be an achievable best case scenario: The Exarchate is better prepared to receive a return visit from their unwanted visitors from the East. I think it very likely it is, in the end, a losing battle and Byzantine Africa gains a few more years at best over the OTL 50 years they survived after Gregory's defeat.

I know that OTL the Exarchate of Africa managed to gain quite a bit of support from the king of the Visigoths. Maybe butterflies could cause some decisive Arab victory against Byzantium, and make earlier rulers more eager to support Gregory?What if the Caliphate were to be distracted by events elsewhere? The aforementioned military disaster for the East Romans might have more of an impact by causing them to direct more forces towards Anatolia/Armenia?

I bring up so many contingencies because I've been thinking of maybe starting a TL based on this subject. It wouldn't turn out anything like Russian's continuation of Southern Rome though, as I think the Romans have had their day in the sun. :)

Basically, I want to suss out various possible avenues, and I feel like the advice of forumites with more experience than myself can give me a general feel for the possibilities better than my already biased opinions. Also, thanks for the input so far!
 
Also, thoughts that a lucky enough Greg at Sufetula would manage to take Sicily or Ex. of Ravenna? Probably a long shot, but Constantinople might not have wanted to divert forces Westwards. Or maybe their doing so could give the Arabs an opening into Anatolia? So many possibilities...
 
Also, thoughts that a lucky enough Greg at Sufetula would manage to take Sicily or Ex. of Ravenna? Probably a long shot, but Constantinople might not have wanted to divert forces Westwards. Or maybe their doing so could give the Arabs an opening into Anatolia? So many possibilities...

Given the resources available, both in N. Africa and the Empire as a whole at this time, I think it is almost ASB that Gregory could tackle anything outside of his domain. Holding his Exarchate is more than enough for his plate.
 
Given the resources available, both in N. Africa and the Empire as a whole at this time, I think it is almost ASB that Gregory could tackle anything outside of his domain. Holding his Exarchate is more than enough for his plate.

I was just wondering. If the Exarch of Africa was powerful enough to declare independence, then maybe they would take Sicily or Ravenna, as Byzantine control in Italy was tenuous at best. Though I'll bet an invader in Italy would worry the Lombards quite a bit, and I doubt that Greg would be content to just have a web of cities instead of Italy itself...

If he had the support of the Pope, is it possible that he would be able to be declared something of a "Defender of Christendom" after victories against the Muslims? He had already split with Byzantium religiously, and I know Martel got a good deal out of defeating the Arabs. And that was one battle, so who knows?

All the same, I doubt that Rome (I don't want to call it Carthage or Southern Rome or anything like that) would reunite the empire, or even do anything close to that. The most I thought about was Sicily, Western Italy, "colonies" in Southern France, and Vassal kingdoms in Iberia. Assuming that is, that they ever get out from under the shadow of the Caliphate.

:eek: Wait a minute: What if Ibn-Saad were to die in the battle? He was the governor of Upper Egypt at the time, and an important naval commander, participating in the Battle of the Masts. I don't find it inconceivable that his death and subsequent failure of the Muslim navy could lead to some big problems for Byzantium... I'll have to think about this some more. I don't want to do this, but I'll post the scenario I'm thinking of if you're willing to hear it. I hope that it won't disappoint, as it would mean some very big changes for all involved...

Edit: To give you an idea, do you think the Exarchate would be able to survive if Byzantium were a bit more concerned with the Arabs? As in, "Sack of Constantinople" concerned?:)
 
:eek: Wait a minute: What if Ibn-Saad were to die in the battle? He was the governor of Upper Egypt at the time, and an important naval commander, participating in the Battle of the Masts. I don't find it inconceivable that his death and subsequent failure of the Muslim navy could lead to some big problems for Byzantium... I'll have to think about this some more. I don't want to do this, but I'll post the scenario I'm thinking of if you're willing to hear it. I hope that it won't disappoint, as it would mean some very big changes for all involved...

Edit: To give you an idea, do you think the Exarchate would be able to survive if Byzantium were a bit more concerned with the Arabs? As in, "Sack of Constantinople" concerned?:)

No one's responded yet, but at this point I'll bet that no one will. So here it goes:

Gregory the Patrician receives word from a scout of his that the Arabs are sending an army to the city of Sufetula. He hurries in order to arrive there ahead of them, and meets him in battle. In the chaos, Ibn Saad is killed, and the Arab army falls into slight disorder without the commands of their general. Gregory senses his chance, and sends all of his troops, including the ones garrisoning the city, to attack the Arabs and manages to get a victory. He again moves his army forward and with some help from one of the more powerful Amazigh clans, he ekes out a small victory against the remnants of Ibn Saad's army and the reinforcements lead by Al-Zubayr. Gregory's armies are severely weakened however, so he doesn't pursue the Muslim armies.

Over the next decade and a half, there are more skirmishes with the Arabs, but never a full-scale invasion. Butterflies from Ibn Saad's death (he was an important naval commander) lead to the fledgling Muslim fleet being crushed at the Battle of the Masts. Gregory then hatches a scheme to distract the Byzantines and get the Arabs off his back.

He travels to Mecca, telling his citizens that he is going to try to stop the war with the Caliphate. When he arrives, he receives an audience with the caliph and negotiates a plan. Gregory tells the Caliph that he has seen the light and converted to Islam, and that he is going to help them in their war with Byzantium. In return for a promise from the Caliph that he will publicly declare his faith afterwards, he will arrange transport for thirty thousand muslim warriors to Constantinople. In addition, the Caliph is willing to give him Sicily for his troubles, as he is understandably happy to have an ally against the East Romans.

Gregory takes his ships to Constantinople, saying that the Muslims are all prisoners he has captured in his war with Mecca, and that he has come to reconcile himself with the Emperor. There is a great celebration in his honor, and in the dead of night, the warriors retrieve the weapon, quickly overpower the garrison in the city, and start looting. the Emperor and most of the most powerful people in the Empire are all slain in the carnage. Afterwards, with the Arabs having a now decisive advantage over Byzantium, Gregory leaves for Damascus and publicly announces his "conversion"(Yeah he's really just trying to put up appearances. He warns the Caliph that his people may not like his epiphany, but that he must not renege on their agreement. The Caliphate must agree never to harm the Roman people in South Africa in war. The Caliph is willing to agree, overestimating Gregory's ability to win over his subjects.

Gregory returns to the capitol of Sufetula, but the news of his conversion and betrayal of the Empire have preceded him. He is greeted by a mob in the city, and within days the entire country has erupted into open revolt. Without any popular support, Gregory is betrayed by one of his own guards and assassinated. The Caliph has wished to intervene in the civil war, but he remembers his promise to his brother in the faith, and decides to honor it. Many of his generals believe that they should protect all muslim leaders from such problems, but he refuses to go back on his word.

So there you have it, the big turning point. The big problem I have here is that I don't know that the Caliph would be that scrupulous when he is practically being offered North Africa on a silver platter. I'm assuming that the Caliph would be trustworthy enough to behave this way, but any evidence to the contrary would be appreciated.
 
Top