WI: Greek victory in the Greco-Turkish War

[GauchoBadger]

I know that this question has been asked some times before, but it's been itching in the back of my head.
What if Greece had managed to defeat Turkey in the post-WWI Greco-Turkish War? Maybe through a different turnout at Sakarya, or through a better disposed and disciplined Greek army at the start of the war.
-What sort of territorial concessions will the Greeks demand from Turkey, and what is the maximum ammount of land that they can annex?
-In case the Greeks manage to "finally" conquer Constantinople, what will happen to the inhabitants of the city? Will the Hagia Sophia be restored, to the chagrin of the city's muslim populace? Will there be forced population transfers? Could Constantinople become a hotbed for civil riots and terrorist activity, like OTL Jerusalem?
-How does this affect the ongoing secondary wars the Turks are fighting, against the Armenians in eastern Anatolia and the French in the Taurus region? Can the Treaty of Sévres be further enforced ITTL?

 

[GauchoBadger]

Bumping for interest. What about Smyrna?

 

[Hvalrossen]

I know that this question has been asked some times before, but it's been itching in the back of my head.
What if Greece had managed to defeat Turkey in the post-WWI Greco-Turkish War? Maybe through a different turnout at Sakarya, or through a better disposed and disciplined Greek army at the start of the war.
-What sort of territorial concessions will the Greeks demand from Turkey, and what is the maximum ammount of land that they can annex?
-In case the Greeks manage to "finally" conquer Constantinople, what will happen to the inhabitants of the city? Will the Hagia Sophia be restored, to the chagrin of the city's muslim populace? Will there be forced population transfers? Could Constantinople become a hotbed for civil riots and terrorist activity, like OTL Jerusalem?
-How does this affect the ongoing secondary wars the Turks are fighting, against the Armenians in eastern Anatolia and the French in the Taurus region? Can the Treaty of Sévres be further enforced ITTL?

I think a greek victory will be weak and incomplete if it even happens. More likely is a more favourable post war settlement between Greece and Turkey. In OTL the peace treaty was more in favour of Turkey. I think that a optimistic and more pro greek settlement might cede thrace and istanbul to greece while turkey keeps anatolia.

 

[GauchoBadger]

I think a greek victory will be weak and incomplete if it even happens. More likely is a more favourable post war settlement between Greece and Turkey. In OTL the peace treaty was more in favour of Turkey. I think that a optimistic and more pro greek settlement might cede thrace and istanbul to greece while turkey keeps anatolia.

If Greece can capture Constantinople, then no way it is a "weak" Greek victory. The city had some very large symbolic and strategic value.

 

[NoMommsen]

I think a greek victory will be weak and incomplete if it even happens. More likely is a more favourable post war settlement between Greece and Turkey. In OTL the peace treaty was more in favour of Turkey. I think that a optimistic and more pro greek settlement might cede thrace and istanbul to greece while turkey keeps anatolia.

HuuH ??

What treaty do you talk about, that was "in favor" for the turks ?
With the (almost) complete dismanteling of the ottoman empire down to what the ottoman, anatolian corelands of the mid-14th century, if you include the 'zones of influence' of the italians and french, I can barely think of a worse "peace-treaty".

Though, ... I have too admitt, that the greek 'gains' extending and compared to the occupied region of the Smyrna/Izmir villajet, 'legalized' under the treaty of Sevres until the treaty was finally signed were considerable. In size roughly the territory of the Smyrna region again.

 

[NoMommsen]

If Greece can capture Constantinople, then no way it is a "weak" Greek victory. The city had some very large symbolic and strategic value.

Something I actually don't see happen, as the Bosphorus, Constantinople, the Marmara Sea with its isls and the Dardanelles including a small strip of land on each side were "internationalized".
And I don't see, why the Entente-"powers" (aka Britain and France) should change this after a greek victory.
...
Well, maybe that the civilian adminstration of this region is given to Greece, but the military "prütection" of the this zone would be left under international command/responsibility. After all the turks were "the bad boys" rejecting the treaty of Sevres and actually fighting it, what was the (official ?) reason for the greek ti intervene and advance :

• to eliminate these partisan activities against the regulations of the treaty.

(I won't discuss here, who was first in commiting ... crimes against civilians. Something IMO both can be blamed for.)

But let's assume, the greek actually get the complete civilian control of Constantinople as described above with "free hand" in civilian matters ...

...
-In case the Greeks manage to "finally" conquer Constantinople, what will happen to the inhabitants of the city?

1. Will the Hagia Sophia be restored, to the chagrin of the city's muslim populace?
   
2. Will there be forced population transfers?
   
3. Could Constantinople become a hotbed for civil riots and terrorist activity, like OTL Jerusalem?

...

ad 1. Yes

... much to the joy of every orthodox christ around the world.
... and if only to see such a certainly bombastic ceremony ​

ad 2. Forced ... well, there will most likely be a "population transfer"

- some will move - more or less - voluntary, fearing what might happen.
- some (rarther few, IMO, compared to the overall numbers) will be expulsed as "potential threats of public peace"
- and ... there will be a general tranfer agreement for Constantinople as well as the "rest" of the territorial changes/gains of Greece in Asia Minor. ... much as OTL​

ad 3. unfortunatly for public peace : YES (IMHO)

 

[Hvalrossen]

HuuH ??

What treaty do you talk about, that was "in favor" for the turks ?
With the (almost) complete dismanteling of the ottoman empire down to what the ottoman, anatolian corelands of the mid-14th century, if you include the 'zones of influence' of the italians and french, I can barely think of a worse "peace-treaty".

Though, ... I have too admitt, that the greek 'gains' extending and compared to the occupied region of the Smyrna/Izmir villajet, 'legalized' under the treaty of Sevres until the treaty was finally signed were considerable. In size roughly the territory of the Smyrna region again.

I was thinking of this treaty, not the treaty of severes.
https://www.britannica.com/event/Treaty-of-Lausanne-1923

 

[NoMommsen]

I was thinking of this treaty, not the treaty of severes.
https://www.britannica.com/event/Treaty-of-Lausanne-1923

... but this was after the greco-turkish/turkish independence war ...

 

[Hvalrossen]

... but this was after the greco-turkish/turkish independence war ...

This was the final and concluding peace settlement, so i thought about this treaty.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

I know that this question has been asked some times before, but it's been itching in the back of my head.
What if Greece had managed to defeat Turkey in the post-WWI Greco-Turkish War? Maybe through a different turnout at Sakarya, or through a better disposed and disciplined Greek army at the start of the war.
-What sort of territorial concessions will the Greeks demand from Turkey, and what is the maximum ammount of land that they can annex?
-In case the Greeks manage to "finally" conquer Constantinople, what will happen to the inhabitants of the city? Will the Hagia Sophia be restored, to the chagrin of the city's muslim populace? Will there be forced population transfers? Could Constantinople become a hotbed for civil riots and terrorist activity, like OTL Jerusalem?
-How does this affect the ongoing secondary wars the Turks are fighting, against the Armenians in eastern Anatolia and the French in the Taurus region? Can the Treaty of Sévres be further enforced ITTL?

Whoah... Stop right there buddy. Just exactly from whom are they going to conquer Constantinople? The British and French? Good luck with that.

I am not to trying to sound like a b*tch but a Greek conquest of Constantinople is asb. Numerous reasons:
1. It is in British hands. They can try to fight the British Army and Navy but we all know how that is going to end.

2. The risk of falling in (communist) Russian hands. Such valuable place to fall in such big threat is too big to hand it over to Greece. The best bet you can get is a dominion of the straits where both Turks and Greeks in the government under British (and later American) control. If ofcourse, the majority of the population doesn't vote to join Turkey like Hatay.

If you want a Greek victory just let them not go behind Izmir, their Anatolian region, to expand their border. You have a Greece with Eastern Thrace and Izmir. What more could they want? More valuable isn't there to get except Manisa and its coal mines. And that is the maximum you could get as Greece in a victory... That and maybe Mugla province. Maybe.

Ofcourse if the lords of the world at its time, the United Kingdom, thought it was the best decision.