WI: Greek-Turkish War in 1971

According to Wikipedia's article on Greek-Turkish relations:

"In 2018, declassified documents of the Communist Bulgaria revealed a plan to foment crisis between Turkey and Greece in 1971. The operation codenamed "Cross" and the plan was that Bulgarian secret agents would set fire to the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople and make it look like the work of Turks. The declassified documents state that “An intervention” in the religious entity would have “significantly damage[d] Turkish-Greek relations and force[d] the United States to choose one side in the ensuing crisis,”. In addition, the Bulgarians also planned to boost the effectiveness of its operation against Greece and Turkey by conducting “active measures" “for putting the enemy in a position of delusion." The plan was developed by the 7th Department of the First Main Directorate of the DS (intelligence and secret police services of communist Bulgaria) and was affirmed by Deputy Head of the Directorate on November 16, 1970, and approved by its Head. The operation was supposed to be prepared by the middle of 1971 and then executed, but it was abandoned."

So what if Bulgaria had gone through with the plan and managed to trigger a Greek-Turkish war? Which side would the US choose?
 
They’d try to actively stop the conflict, but if push came to shove they have every reason to support Turkey over Greece.
 
According to Wikipedia's article on Greek-Turkish relations:


"In 2018, declassified documents of the Communist Bulgaria revealed a plan to foment crisis between Turkey and Greece in 1971. The operation codenamed "Cross" and the plan was that Bulgarian secret agents would set fire to the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople and make it look like the work of Turks. The declassified documents state that “An intervention” in the religious entity would have “significantly damage[d] Turkish-Greek relations and force[d] the United States to choose one side in the ensuing crisis,”. In addition, the Bulgarians also planned to boost the effectiveness of its operation against Greece and Turkey by conducting “active measures" “for putting the enemy in a position of delusion." The plan was developed by the 7th Department of the First Main Directorate of the DS (intelligence and secret police services of communist Bulgaria) and was affirmed by Deputy Head of the Directorate on November 16, 1970, and approved by its Head. The operation was supposed to be prepared by the middle of 1971 and then executed, but it was abandoned."

So what if Bulgaria had gone through with the plan and managed to trigger a Greek-Turkish war? Which side would the US choose?
It's very hard to know which position would America take, but, if the bulgarian plot wouldn't be discovered, but it was obvious that it must have been set on purpose, the turkish authorities would be in a very ackward situation , to say at least
 
It's very hard to know which position would America take, but, if the bulgarian plot wouldn't be discovered, but it was obvious that it must have been set on purpose, the turkish authorities would be in a very ackward situation , to say at least

Image if the Bulgarian are caught, just after the fact
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Well there was a possibility that Greece will permanently leave nato just because of their support of the Turkish cause
 
One more positive aspect of this is that the turmoil it would produce would probably lead to an earlier fall of the Colonels’ Junta in Greece. I agree with other posters, the US would probably support the Turks over the Greeks, but a Greek defeat, even with a status quo ante Bellum peace, would likely mean the end of the junta. However a more violent end to that could spell trouble for Greece. I have no idea what effects it would have in Turkey.

In any case, it would have led to great animosity between Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria. It’s likely there would be hatred towards Bulgarians still simmering today.
 
This could spin out of control very rapidly. Even if the US embargoes military goods to BOTH parties, who are using almost 100% US weapons systems, there is plenty to spill lots of blood and the Turks have more gear and troops. Complicating everything is the reality that there are US bases in both countries, and Incirlik for sure has nukes, and not sure about Soudha Bay on Crete (perhaps ASW nukes). If the US steps back and takes a neutral stance and the Greeks are pressed (likely) they may turn around and request aid from the WP/Russia, at which point the possibilities for a real crap show skyrocket. Even assuming a status quo antebellum peace, if the US has supported one side more than the other the unsupported side will assuredly pull out of NATO. Even if the US was pretty neutral, I think the Greeks more than the Turks will be inclined to pull out of NATO, and you may very well see Soudha Bay becoming a Soviet naval/air base rather than a US/NATO one which drastically changes things in the Eastern Med.

If the Bulgarian fingerprints are detected before conflict starts this is awkward for the Soviets who either have to throw the Bulgars under the bus or support them, the latter could mean WWIII and they Soviets are not going to see that to support the Bulgars. Once the fighting starts between Greece and Turkey, even if the Bulgarian role is exposed and everyone goes back to pre-war, there are lots of dead to be remembered and avenged and physical damage to be repaired and yet another bit of permanent hate.
 
Problem one, Greece may have had other issues at the time but its intelligence and security apparatus was top notch and the Turks hardly slouches either. Second problem, how exactly do we go from ecumenical patriarchate attacked to war between Greece and Turkey, one notes war failed to happen in 1974 with Turkey outright invading Cyprus. At worse you get Greek-Turkish relations worse with much name calling but that's about it. Third problem both Greeks and Turks know very well how the pogroms of 1955 got started namely by MIT bombing Kemal's house in Thessaloniki. If this sounds exactly like the Bulgarian plan here it is because it is. Both secret services will recognise the fire for what it is, know it wasn't them and both in turn will be talking to their CIA collegues if not directly to each other.

Chances are this backfires really spectacularly and really fast.

Oh and for the funny possible unintended consequences. Say Athenagoras dies in the fire leaving the ecumenical see empty a year early. At the time one of the ideas circulating was to elevate Makarios to the throne when it became empty thus replacing him in the Cypriot presidency with someone more pro-western...
 
According to Wikipedia's article on Greek-Turkish relations:

"In 2018, declassified documents of the Communist Bulgaria revealed a plan to foment crisis between Turkey and Greece in 1971. The operation codenamed "Cross" and the plan was that Bulgarian secret agents would set fire to the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople and make it look like the work of Turks. The declassified documents state that “An intervention” in the religious entity would have “significantly damage[d] Turkish-Greek relations and force[d] the United States to choose one side in the ensuing crisis,”. In addition, the Bulgarians also planned to boost the effectiveness of its operation against Greece and Turkey by conducting “active measures" “for putting the enemy in a position of delusion." The plan was developed by the 7th Department of the First Main Directorate of the DS (intelligence and secret police services of communist Bulgaria) and was affirmed by Deputy Head of the Directorate on November 16, 1970, and approved by its Head. The operation was supposed to be prepared by the middle of 1971 and then executed, but it was abandoned."

So what if Bulgaria had gone through with the plan and managed to trigger a Greek-Turkish war? Which side would the US choose?
Would the Soviets approve this Plan ? Would theyh had any knowledge of this ?
 
For this plan to actually be carried out, you would need to replace the leader of Bulgaria Todor Zhivkov with someone else. Likely along with most of the Bulgarian government altogether. Not only does such reckless actions don't fit with Zhivkov's generally cautious approach, but he had spend much of the last decade improving relations with Greece, even in the face of Soviet disapproval.

If the Bulgarian fingerprints are detected before conflict starts this is awkward for the Soviets who either have to throw the Bulgars under the bus or support them, the latter could mean WWIII and they Soviets are not going to see that to support the Bulgars. Once the fighting starts between Greece and Turkey, even if the Bulgarian role is exposed and everyone goes back to pre-war, there are lots of dead to be remembered and avenged and physical damage to be repaired and yet another bit of permanent hate.
The Soviets are not going to abandon Bulgaria that easily. Of course, nor would the US support Turkey or Greece in starting a war over this.

Would the Soviets approve this Plan ? Would theyh had any knowledge of this ?
I don't see Bulgaria attempting to carry out the plan without Soviet approval, which is unlikely to be forthcoming - too much risk for too little gain.
 
If the Bulgarians do this, and are caught out, even if the Soviets really did not know is ANYONE going to believe the Soviets when they deny knowledge. Well, of course the true believers would believe it, but other than the ones who would believe the sun rose in the west and set in the east if it came from Moscow...
 
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