WI: Greco-Turkish War in 1914

[Captain Jack]

So I've been reading about the lead up to World War I and it seems like everything I read has some off-hand mention that the contemporary consensus was that war between Greece and Turkey would happen by the end of 1914. However, I haven't found anything that actually spends more than two sentences on this. What were the underlying tensions behind this war? Would it involve the other Balkan nations and become a Third Balkan War? How would the war go? Who would win? What do we know about this oft mentioned but little detailed piece of history AH.com?

If I had to wager a guess I'd say Bulgaria would join Greece in attacking the Ottomans. Tsar Ferdinand really wanted Constantinople so I think he'd go for a second chance to seize it. Then again Bulgaria might choose to side with the Ottomans against Greece to try and take Salonica and the Greek portion of Macedonia. I figure Serbia and Romania would only jump in if the war goes badly for Greece and/or Bulgaria and they see an easy win. Also of interest is that the Ottomans would have their two battleships and so would bea ble to control the Agean. Meaning they could ship reinforcements from Asia to the Balkans. As I understand it their inability to do that was a serious problem during the First Balkan War.

Note: This is all predicated on no WW1. Let's just disregard how it never happens and go from there.

 

[Tom_B]

The Greeks, the Bulgarians and the Turkey

So I've been reading about the lead up to World War I and it seems like everything I read has some off-hand mention that the contemporary consensus was that war between Greece and Turkey would happen by the end of 1914. However, I haven't found anything that actually spends more than two sentences on this. What were the underlying tensions behind this war? Would it involve the other Balkan nations and become a Third Balkan War? How would the war go? Who would win? What do we know about this oft mentioned but little detailed piece of history AH.com?

If I had to wager a guess I'd say Bulgaria would join Greece in attacking the Ottomans. Tsar Ferdinand really wanted Constantinople so I think he'd go for a second chance to seize it. Then again Bulgaria might choose to side with the Ottomans against Greece to try and take Salonica and the Greek portion of Macedonia. I figure Serbia and Romania would only jump in if the war goes badly for Greece and/or Bulgaria and they see an easy win. Also of interest is that the Ottomans would have their two battleships and so would bea ble to control the Agean. Meaning they could ship reinforcements from Asia to the Balkans. As I understand it their inability to do that was a serious problem during the First Balkan War.

Note: This is all predicated on no WW1. Let's just disregard how it never happens and go from there.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gp3uU7yMk_4

 

[Spatharios]

The issue was mainly the fact that the Ottomans did not accept the result of the Great Powers' arbitration that gave the islands of the eastern Aegean (except for Imbros and Tenedos) to Greece, even though Greece had captured them in 1912 during the First Balkan War. There is some good material in English here: http://www.flamboroughmanor.co.uk/superiorforce/chapter9.htm & http://www.flamboroughmanor.co.uk/superiorforce/chapter10.htm

This resulted in a battleship race, in which the Ottomans were well ahead, i.e. they would get their two dreadnoughts before the Greeks, who would have only the two American pre-dreadnought battleships they had just bought as a stop-gap measure. At the same time, the CUP government began measures of ethnic cleansing, in which several tens of thousands of Greeks were evicted from Eastern Thrace and the western shores of Anatolia to Greece or the interior of Anatolia (prompting Venizelos to propose a population exchange for the first time).

Anyhow, if a war had broken out, there is absolutely no way to predict what would have happened. Bulgaria would most likely stay neutral at first, but would definitely not ally with Greece. It is far more likely she would cut a deal with the Ottomans (as she died in 1915) and attack Greece at some point, although Serbia would probably not sit idle in any Bulgarian attempt to advance in Macedonia. Greece had plans to effect a surprise landing at the Dardanelles the moment the war began so as to threaten Constantinople, preferrably before the first Ottoman dreadnought arrived. From what I remember of them, it involved the landing of four divisions at various places along the Gallipoli peninsula to coincide with the declaration of war. I dare say it was far better planned and prepared than the rather bungled analogous Allied attempt a year later (the planner was the future dictator Ioannis Metaxas, widely considered one of the most brilliant staff officers Greece has ever had, and Ottoman defensive preparations were not as advanced as in 1915), but even if it had succeeded, I don't know whether it would have decided the outcome of the war. The Greek leadership probably felt that at this point the Powers (especially Russia and Britain) would intervene to stop fighting.

The main problem for the Greeks was the Ottoman naval superiority mentioned above, as it was confidently expected (and loudly announced by the Ottoman press) that the moment the Turks had possession of the first dreadnought, outclassing by far any Greek vessel, they would attack. It is interesting to note here what the head of the Greek admiralty, P. Kountouriotis, proposed, as a sign of how threatened the Greeks felt: he would take under his personal command a few torpedo boats and wait for the first Ottoman battleship as it entered the Aegean in its journey from Britain, before it could join the rest of the Ottoman fleet, while both countries were still at peace, and sink it. Then the Greek government would repudiate his actions, court-martial him and have him shot, if need be. Venizelos forbade him to even think of it, but, at least according to his own later statements, Kountouriotis would have done it on his own if no diplomatic solution was in sight.

Then again, dreadnought or no dreadnought, the Ottomans theoretically were superior to the Greek fleet even during the Balkan Wars, but still failed miserably. Ottoman crews severely lacked training and the bulk of their naval officer corps were incompetent, as the fleet had been neglected and suffered due to lack of funds and political infighting for over a generation.

 

[Halagaz]

One thing that might have prevented such a conflict is the existence of a wild card - Bulgaria, which as of 1913 has territorial claims against both the Ottoman Empire and Greece and could seriously screw up the situation for whoever they move against (most likely Greece, at least if the Greeks formally start the war, but not necessarily).

It may be in Romania's interest to subdue any territorial expansion and increase of prestige and military power by Bulgaria, but I think they will most likely end up neutral.

Serbia would also probably stay out of the war, but that may change if Bulgaria enters the fray - the Serbian government might think that they need to fight Bulgaria's expansion at Thessaloniki with Greece so they don't later have to fight it in Macedonia alone.
In any case, they are extremely unlikely to ever attack Greece.

Albania could in theory be an ally for the Ottomans, but first they need to sort Albania itself out, as in, unite the country under a stable government. Otherwise, any war they fight will be defensive by necessity.

 

[Seleucus]

Something I've always wondered is what would have happened if Greece had entered World War I once concrete news of the Greek Genocide appeared (by early 1915 at the latest.)

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

One thing that might have prevented such a conflict is the existence of a wild card - Bulgaria, which as of 1913 has territorial claims against both the Ottoman Empire and Greece and could seriously screw up the situation for whoever they move against (most likely Greece, at least if the Greeks formally start the war, but not necessarily).

It may be in Romania's interest to subdue any territorial expansion and increase of prestige and military power by Bulgaria, but I think they will most likely end up neutral.

Serbia would also probably stay out of the war, but that may change if Bulgaria enters the fray - the Serbian government might think that they need to fight Bulgaria's expansion at Thessaloniki with Greece so they don't later have to fight it in Macedonia alone.
In any case, they are extremely unlikely to ever attack Greece.

Albania could in theory be an ally for the Ottomans, but first they need to sort Albania itself out, as in, unite the country under a stable government. Otherwise, any war they fight will be defensive by necessity.

Bulgaria would have to make a deal with Serbia that will keep them neutral, but still agree on the spheres of influence in regards to Macedonia. Then again, the two nations didn't want to give up any inch of Macedonian territory to the other.

 

[Spatharios]

Something I've always wondered is what would have happened if Greece had entered World War I once concrete news of the Greek Genocide appeared (by early 1915 at the latest.)

If neither WW1 nor a Greco-Turkish war had broken out by 1915, with Greece lacking a land border with Turkey, I really don't see what the Greeks could have done other than try to make the best of it, i.e. as I wrote above, implement a population exchange to homogenize their population. Anyhow, the persecution was going on already in spring 1914, the Greek government didn't have to wait until 1915 to find things out.

 

[Halagaz]

It is interesting to note here what the head of the Greek admiralty, P. Kountouriotis, proposed, as a sign of how threatened the Greeks felt: he would take under his personal command a few torpedo boats and wait for the first Ottoman battleship as it entered the Aegean in its journey from Britain, before it could join the rest of the Ottoman fleet, while both countries were still at peace, and sink it. Then the Greek government would repudiate his actions, court-martial him and have him shot, if need be. Venizelos forbade him to even think of it, but, at least according to his own later statements, Kountouriotis would have done it on his own if no diplomatic solution was in sight.

That's...pretty extreme. Yet awe-inspiring.

But if Greece has a well-organized, experienced navy, a good plan of attack for Eastern Thrace, and an opportunity to sink the hope of the Ottoman Navy before it even reaches the Three Pashas - wouldn't it be better to use the chance to attack? There are risks involved, but if the alternative is to than kill a popular first-rate naval officer (almost guaranteed to annoy the citizens and breed resentment and low morale among the soldiers and the officers), and then sit around and wait for the Ottoman Empire to recover its lost advantage...

Bulgaria would have to make a deal with Serbia that will keep them neutral, but still agree on the spheres of influence in regards to Macedonia. Then again, the two nations didn't want to give up any inch of Macedonian territory to the other.

Perhaps it would be the safest option for Bulgaria to remain neutral and milk that neutrality for all it's worth in terms of agreements and concessions. After all, they control the only land route between Greece and the Ottoman Empire, not to mention other ways they can change the game. Although, if they do turn against the Ottoman Empire, that would more or less ensure they're not going to be attacked by anyone else, so Bulgaria would almost certainly end up on the winning side.