WI greater Soviet aggression against Romania in 1940?

Also some more interesting facts, in 1940 Germany got 94% of its oil from Romania, in 1941 it was 75%. Without that I believe that the German military could simply not do anything there would be no trucks, tanks, planes or ships that use anything made from oil and the civilian economy would be severely hit.

If Stalin stops trading with Germany as soon as he's able to knock out the wells (and while Germany is still tied up in France), it does look bad for the Germans.

Would Stalin want to do that, however? He may instead opt to keep selling oil (though the price may rise due to having Germany over a barrel) as a way to try and keep the war between Germany and Britain going.

And if Stalin did stop the flow of resources West, I have a hard time seeing peace breaking out and the Germans will react somehow.

So does Germany flail desperately while the British get their act together and start slowly chipping away at them before the Germans are weak enough to invade? Does Stalin invade German occupied Europe at some point, and does he do so in alliance with the British or not? I suspect Stalin and the British would both want an alliance since it saves the British much blood and sweat and Stalin can convince himself that the British won't attack him after the Germans if he is an ally.

And then, what sort of Cold War evolves from this?

All sorts of scenarios could evolve.

fasquardon
 

BooNZ

Banned
What is of course interesting is that there are lots of ww2 buffs who do not want to know things that conflict with their preconceived notions.

There is actually proof or as close as someone can come to real proof without a time machine or an alternative dimension machine.
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Agreed, although that 'proof' was provided in post 9 of this thread (and promptly ignored). German pre-Barbarossa assessment of Romanian military capabilities and King Carol's assessment of the political realities also confirm Romania would likely be facing the Soviets alone in 1940. at best, or worst case scenario Romania would also be facing Hungary and Bulgaria.

What is even more interesting of course is an Invasion of Romania one week after the Germans invade France, and the USSR stops all exports to Germany. In addition to that if there had been no invasion of Finland, but instead a 6 month planning and preparation for an invasion of Romania with the sole purpose of reaching the oil wells.

I don't think you need to game the scenario with multiple PODs to have the Soviets overwhelm what is essentially a WW1 era military with broken defensive lines. In my opinion, the OTL occupation of Bessarabia with no brakes is less contrived and would still result in the Romanian oil fields and infrastructure quickly coming under Soviet control.

Also some more interesting facts, in 1940 Germany got 94% of its oil from Romania, in 1941 it was 75%. Without that I believe that the German military could simply not do anything there would be no trucks, tanks, planes or ships that use anything made from oil and the civilian economy would be severely hit.

Those percentages sound like 'alternative facts'. In 1937 Germany was already generating 4.8 million barrels of synthetic petroleum, which had increased to more than 35 million barrels by 1943. Germany's domestic output of crude oil increased from 3.8 million barrels in 1938 to 12 million barrels in 1944. In 1940 Germany also imported 4 million barrels of oil from the Soviets and another 1.5 million barrels in 1941. Meanwhile, Romanian oil imports increased from 2.8 million barrels in 1938 to a peak of 13 million barrels in 1941, a quantity that was maintained in 1942 and 1943. So even after Barbarossa, Romanian oil would have represented substantially less than 50% of Germany's total oil supplies.

Without an Eastern Front, Germany could have 'coped' without Romanian oil (and even Soviet Oil), but available oil reserves would have been severely drained as production of domestic oil and synthetic oil gradually increased. I don't think Soviet control of Romanian oil is necessarily the end of the Third Reich, but it is almost certainly the end of a 1941 Operation Barbarossa.

If Stalin stops trading with Germany as soon as he's able to knock out the wells (and while Germany is still tied up in France), it does look bad for the Germans.

Would Stalin want to do that, however? He may instead opt to keep selling oil (though the price may rise due to having Germany over a barrel) as a way to try and keep the war between Germany and Britain going.

And if Stalin did stop the flow of resources West, I have a hard time seeing peace breaking out and the Germans will react somehow.

I agree with the above. I doubt uncle Joe would want to further provoke Germany, but at the same time, I doubt there would be any effort to prioritize the repair of damaged Romanian oil infrastructure or increase Germany's share of Romanian oil production.

So does Germany flail desperately while the British get their act together and start slowly chipping away at them before the Germans are weak enough to invade? Does Stalin invade German occupied Europe at some point, and does he do so in alliance with the British or not? I suspect Stalin and the British would both want an alliance since it saves the British much blood and sweat and Stalin can convince himself that the British won't attack him after the Germans if he is an ally.

In 1940/41 Britain was an isolated island with a broken army and a broken economy - I doubt if Joe was planning for a British victory at that point. I think the most likely scenario is Joe recommences appeasing Germany, while the Soviets continue to arm themselves to the teeth.
 
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