WI: Greater Germany, including ALL of the Austrian Empire?

[Susano]

Sure, if that unification is Habsburg driven, then the central government would try to keep the lands together. But Habsburg had no actual such designs. If we assume its done by liberal 1848 revolutionaries, then in the spirit of 1848 liberal, democratic nationalism they will most likely let the Hungarian lands secede (as one state, or two or more or whatever).

 

[Valdemar II]

Sure, if that unification is Habsburg driven, then the central government would try to keep the lands together. But Habsburg had no actual such designs. If we assume its done by liberal 1848 revolutionaries, then in the spirit of 1848 liberal, democratic nationalism they will most likely let the Hungarian lands secede (as one state, or two or more or whatever).

Yes I agree that's why 1848 is lousy POD for this potential Empire.

 

[Lord Grattan]

So, "The Blob" is now the official name for this hypothetical empire?

Der Blobscher Reich

 

[Eurofed]

One way that this scenario could work IMO is if we ditch political centralization that encompasses Greater Germany and the other Magyar lands, and instead we assume that a liberal Habsburg Emperor and the Frankfurt Parliament work together to create a federal liberal Greater Germany that is in personal union with a liberal Kingdom of Hungary and Croatia. Basically an Ausgleich on steroids. IIRC the 1849 constitution had provisions to this regard if Austria had decided to join the Reich. If the Habsburg Emperor is willing to give up centralization of his lands and work out the personal union with German and Magyar liberals, everything shall fall into place. The settlement may have a few minor wrinkles (German nationalists shall adamantly refuse a personal-union status to Bohemia-Moravia, and insist that it becomes an integral part of Germany, if with federal autonomy, both for historical reason and to safeguard the status of Germans in B-M; likewise it is questionable whether Magyar nationalists shall be willing to allow a personal-union status to Croatia, or it shall insist that it stays a part of the Kingdom of Hungary, if with some federal autonomy; it is quite possible that some quick cohercion of czechs and Croats be necessary to complete the settlement, but if Austria, Prussia, and German-Magyar liberals are working together, it is easily done). In this scenario, the romantic legitimist mindset of the Prussian King, which ruined things OTL, shall work to Germany's advantage. If the Habsburg Emperor takes the lead of German unification, he shall feel compelled to follow, even if it places Prussia subordinate to Austria.

One important thing, in this scenario, what happens to Italy. This mega-unification cannot leave it dangling. There are only two possible good plausible settlements to it IMO: A) pulling on the immense power and prestige that the unification is going to give him, the Emperor steps forward and offers other Italian princes a national federal unification on the German model, with himself as King-President of the Italian Confederation. With a liberal Emperor, Italian liberal nationalists would most likely accept the deal and strongarm the princes into accepting it. B) The Emperor declares that with the unification of Germany-Hungary, his responsbilities outside Italy are too compelling, makes peace with Savoy and cedes it Lombardy-Veneto (maybe even Trento, too), in exchange for an alliance treaty and customs union. Savoy uses prestige from this and help from italian liberals to strongarm the other Italian princes into setting the federal Kingdom of Italy, on the German model, as above.

Notice that if these scenarioes transpire this way, neither Britain nor France nor Russia shall have anything close to a decet casus belli, notwtihstading how much impressive Germany-Hungary or Germany-Hungary-Italy looks on the map of Europe. In this scenario, both from a liberal and a legitimist POV, everything is happening according to the (more or less) free choices of the legitimate authorities, the princes and the peoples involved, not by military conquest, so there is no good justification for other great powers to intervene. The "balance of power" is not a good justification alone for a casus belli, certainly not for the British Parliament, nor for a 1848 France in the midst of its own liberal revolution (which by the way shall be powerless to do any military adventures up to mid-1849). Even legitimist Russia would be embarassed to attack. Oh no doubt that in the following years France shall be scrounging to find a decent casus belli, and to appease Russia the Emperor may have to cede Galicia and sign Russia a basic blank check for expansion in the Balkans, so you can expect an early WWI between this Triple Alliance in one state (or two) and at least France and/or Russia within the next two decades, but there is no reason why there other great powers should feel free to attack as soon as the unification is proclaimed.

 

[I Blame Communism]

One way that this scenario could work IMO is if we ditch political centralization that encompasses Greater Germany and the other Magyar lands, and instead we assume that a liberal Habsburg Emperor and the Frankfurt Parliament work together to create a federal liberal Greater Germany that is in personal union with a liberal Kingdom of Hungary and Croatia. Basically an Ausgleich on steroids. IIRC the 1849 constitution had provisions to this regard if Austria had decided to join the Reich. If the Habsburg Emperor is willing to give up centralization of his lands and work out the personal union with German and Magyar liberals, everything shall fall into place. The settlement may have a few minor wrinkles (German nationalists shall adamantly refuse a personal-union status to Bohemia-Moravia, and insist that it becomes an integral part of Germany, if with federal autonomy, both for historical reason and to safeguard the status of Germans in B-M; likewise it is questionable whether Magyar nationalists shall be willing to allow a personal-union status to Croatia, or it shall insist that it stays a part of the Kingdom of Hungary, if with some federal autonomy; it is quite possible that some quick cohercion of czechs and Croats be necessary to complete the settlement, but if Austria, Prussia, and German-Magyar liberals are working together, it is easily done). In this scenario, the romantic legitimist mindset of the Prussian King, which ruined things OTL, shall work to Germany's advantage. If the Habsburg Emperor takes the lead of German unification, he shall feel compelled to follow, even if it places Prussia subordinate to Austria.

One important thing, in this scenario, what happens to Italy. This mega-unification cannot leave it dangling. There are only two possible good plausible settlements to it IMO: A) pulling on the immense power and prestige that the unification is going to give him, the Emperor steps forward and offers other Italian princes a national federal unification on the German model, with himself as King-President of the Italian Confederation. With a liberal Emperor, Italian liberal nationalists would most likely accept the deal and strongarm the princes into accepting it. B) The Emperor declares that with the unification of Germany-Hungary, his responsbilities outside Italy are too compelling, makes peace with Savoy and cedes it Lombardy-Veneto (maybe even Trento, too), in exchange for an alliance treaty and customs union. Savoy uses prestige from this and help from italian liberals to strongarm the other Italian princes into setting the federal Kingdom of Italy, on the German model, as above.

Notice that if these scenarioes transpire this way, neither Britain nor France nor Russia shall have anything close to a decet casus belli, notwtihstading how much impressive Germany-Hungary or Germany-Hungary-Italy looks on the map of Europe. In this scenario, both from a liberal and a legitimist POV, everything is happening according to the (more or less) free choices of the legitimate authorities, the princes and the peoples involved, not by military conquest, so there is no good justification for other great powers to intervene. The "balance of power" is not a good justification alone for a casus belli, certainly not for the British Parliament, nor for a 1848 France in the midst of its own liberal revolution (which by the way shall be powerless to do any military adventures up to mid-1849). Even legitimist Russia would be embarassed to attack. Oh no doubt that in the following years France shall be scrounging to find a decent casus belli, and to appease Russia the Emperor may have to cede Galicia and sign Russia a basic blank check for expansion in the Balkans, so you can expect an early WWI between this Triple Alliance in one state (or two) and at least France and/or Russia within the next two decades, but there is no reason why there other great powers should feel free to attack as soon as the unification is proclaimed.

A lot of your comments are plausible and fascinating, but I think thiis was what the OP meant by "seperating", since whatever happens Hungary and Croatia would be under the strong economic and political influence of MegaGermany.

 

[Eurofed]

A lot of your comments are plausible and fascinating, but I think this was what the OP meant by "seperating", since whatever happens Hungary and Croatia would be under the strong economic and political influence of MegaGermany.

Indeed. And in such a case I would really love to see a scenario where the Germany-Hungary-Italy liberal personal union federal triplet would emerge from the 1848 revolutions. It would be a mini-EU or Carolingian Empire reborn (minus France of course), fulfilling the productive part of the liberal-national revolutions (self-rule) without the destructive part (nationalistic balkanization). While it could not likely avoid *WWI (since France and/or Russia would likely try to reverse the power-shift by force) it could most likey spare a lot of nationalistic and totalitarian misery to Europe. And such a *WWI would be likely shorter and with an opposite result than OTL. Plus, it would look terribly cool on a map (I so love blobs ).

 

[vultan]

Yes I agree that's why 1848 is lousy POD for this potential Empire.

Well, sorry.
But you get the general idea. Uber-Reich including all of the Austrian Empire.

 

[lothaw]

Even if the Austrian Empire is folded into a unified Germany stands to reason Hungary is going to become independent. Maybe even a greater Hungary consisting of Slovakia, Transylvania maybe all the way to the Adriatic.

The Hungarian problem was one of Austria's bigger internal problems during this issue. Stands to reason if Austria folds, it's because no dual monarchy concession was reached.

 

[Eurofed]

Maybe even a greater Hungary consisting of Slovakia, Transylvania maybe all the way to the Adriatic.

That's a given. Hungary may or may not be willing to concede varying degrees of federal autonomy to Croatia (never independence), but it shall relinquish its centralized grip on Slovakia and Transylvania only after TOTAL military defeat. To them, those lands were an integral part of their national identity.

 

[Valdemar II]

Well, sorry.
But you get the general idea. Uber-Reich including all of the Austrian Empire.

Well you have nothing to apoligise for, I just think you should look after another POD. As I mentioned I think you need a POD as far back as the Napoleons Wars.

 

[C.Cain]

Germany-Hungary-Italy? That sure sounds intriguing. Care to write a timeline about it?

Anyway, I'm just wondering how such a state would actually call itself, 'cause Germany-Hungary-Italy is quite unwieldy. And how would their flag look like?

 

[Susano]

That's a given. Hungary may or may not be willing to concede varying degrees of federal autonomy to Croatia (never independence), but it shall relinquish its centralized grip on Slovakia and Transylvania only after TOTAL military defeat. To them, those lands were an integral part of their national identity.

Depends. If its really Germany whos setting them free after absorbtion of the Austrian Empire, in a 1848 PoD as per OP, then in the spirit of liberal nationalism they might decide to attempt to dry ethnic borders. Which is difficult in Transylvania, but an indepnedant Slovakia and especially an independant Croatia surely would be possible... and even in Transylvania a 1848 Germany might decide that a Szekler-German-Magyar-Romanian independant Transylvania has its plusses...

An united Hungary would never give autonomy, though, as shown by the aggresive and brutal magyarification policies of Hungary as part of Austria-Hungary IOTL.

 

[Tyr]

If this is a big lovely super democratic Germany then we just have to hope the Magyars and other non-Germans decide to go independent and the Germans aren't hypocrites, will reduce the blob a little.
Then hopefully there'll be north/south divisions that split Germany.

Otherwise if the country works out fine there is going to be trouble. Perhaps a everyone jumps on Germany to enforce these splits war.

 

[Eurofed]

Depends. If its really Germany whos setting them free after absorbtion of the Austrian Empire, in a 1848 PoD as per OP, then in the spirit of liberal nationalism they might decide to attempt to dry ethnic borders. Which is difficult in Transylvania,

A decent compromise solution, if you are willing to bend the majority standard somehow in favor of the Magyars (the only sensble way, given the geopolitical realities of the 1848) is not that impossible, either. The second Vienna Award with some additional bits in western Transylvania to Hungary would be a good start.

but an indepnedant Slovakia

There are sizable areas of southern Slovakia with Magyar majorities or sizable minorities that would need to be left to Hungary, either. See the First Vienna Award for a good start.

Independent, why ? Does successful 1848 Revolution really need to start the region down the 1919 destructive spiral of microstates, political fragmentation, geopolitical vacuum, and economic no self-sufficiency ? Would not a federal Hungary with minority rights for autonomous Transylvania and Slovakia, with regional borders drawn according to the ethnic guidelines above, be a far better solution ?

a 1848 Germany might decide that a Szekler-German-Magyar-Romanian independant Transylvania has its plusses...

As above.

 

[Susano]

Because the idea that every nation deserved freedom including an own state was one of the underpinning ideological points of the 1848 revolution! Of course, people were often hypocrite about it - the German-Polish border the Paulskirche drew in the Prussian Province of Posen was a joke, for example. But nontheless, the basic idea was that every nation should have an own state. The radical republican fringe of the movement would also add "in federated or confederated Europe", but as said, that was mostly the fringe, though all parts would of course proclaim peace between the nations.

Independant Croatia (that ones a given - not only an own nation but also an own history as a state), Independant Slovakia and Independant Transylvania as own states associated with Hungary (customs union, currency union etc.) would fit much more to the spirit of 1848 than a Greater Hungary.

 

[Eurofed]

If this is a big lovely super democratic Germany then we just have to hope the Magyars and other non-Germans decide to go independent and the Germans aren't hypocrites,

Given that with a liberal Habsburg Emperor, Magyar aspirations shall never proceed beyond confederal self-rule, why should Germans push Magyars to go where they want to go ? A German-Magyar confederation a la Ausgleich works much better, both as concerns economic gorwth and mutual defense.

will reduce the blob a little.

Which is certainly not a benefit to Germans, Magyars, and to those who loathe Balkanization.

Then hopefully there'll be north/south divisions that split Germany.

Hopefully to whom ? Certainly not to foreseeing Europeans, to whom a liberal MegaGermany that forms in 1848 shall provide a decent hegemony that spares the worst horrors of the 20th century.

Otherwise if the country works out fine there is going to be trouble. Perhaps a everyone jumps on Germany to enforce these splits war.

Rather a "France goes berserk to regain waning hegemony, has her ass on a plate" early 1870, some decades of revanchism, a rather quicker and less bloody WWI with CP triumph, formation of earlier EU, no or contained Communism, at worst a French Hitler who shall do much less damage... Where's the worst trouble ???

 

[Eurofed]

Because the idea that every nation deserved freedom including an own state was one of the underpinning ideological points of the 1848 revolution! Of course, people were often hypocrite about it - the German-Polish border the Paulskirche drew in the Prussian Province of Posen was a joke, for example. But nontheless, the basic idea was that every nation should have an own state. The radical republican fringe of the movement would also add "in federated or confederated Europe", but as said, that was mostly the fringe, though all parts would of course proclaim peace between the nations.

This is not the whole of the picture. There were often cases where the moderate liberal-nationals and the open-minded conservatives were willing to discuss about sensible federal and confederal solutions where Balkanization would make nation-states too little to ensure defense or have a decent internal market. Avoiding market fragmentation was another big motivation behind the liberal-national movement in Germany and Italy, after all.

Independant Croatia (that ones a given - not only an own nation but also an own history as a state), Independant Slovakia and Independant Transylvania as own states associated with Hungary (customs union, currency union etc.) would fit much more to the spirit of 1848 than a Greater Hungary.

In other words, a (con)federal Kingdom of Hungary with large self-rule autonomies in internal matters for Slovakia, Transylvania, and Croatia.

 

[Susano]

No. The King of Hungary would not be monarch of those territories, who would be own souvereign states. A sort of EEC, so to say.

There were often cases where the moderate liberal-nationals and the open-minded conservatives were willing to discuss about sensible federal and confederal solutions where Balkanization would make nation-states too little to ensure defense or have a decent internal market

Err, and where would that be?
The only federations coming about as states joining together born in that time were Germany and Italy, and both pretty much resulted from national sentiment (well, and Prussian power plays, but in any case not worries about balkanisation), whereas the only federalisation of an existing state happened in Austria(-Hungary). That was a compromise, yes, but again the conservatives wanted to keep the Habsburg monarchy intact and hence were willing to make compromises to ensure that, and not due to a commitment against Balkanisation in general.

 

[Tyr]

Given that with a liberal Habsburg Emperor, Magyar aspirations shall never proceed beyond confederal self-rule, why should Germans push Magyars to go where they want to go ? A German-Magyar confederation a la Ausgleich works much better, both as concerns economic gorwth and mutual defense.

I really disagree there. Under democratic regimes today you still see regions pushing for autonomy. A argument could even be made that under good regimes this drive is actually stronger as they know there will be no repression due to their efforts and the absolute worst that can happen is the central government says no.

Which is certainly not a benefit to Germans, Magyars, and to those who loathe Balkanization.

Which is kinda the point.

Hopefully to whom ? Certainly not to foreseeing Europeans, to whom a liberal MegaGermany that forms in 1848 shall provide a decent hegemony that spares the worst horrors of the 20th century.

To everyone else in Europe.

Rather a "France goes berserk to regain waning hegemony, has her ass on a plate" early 1870, some decades of revanchism, a rather quicker and less bloody WWI with CP triumph, formation of earlier EU, no or contained Communism, at worst a French Hitler who shall do much less damage... Where's the worst trouble ???

No, as has been said the idea that just France would care is wrong.
This nation would utterly dominate Europe which really harms the British balance of power desires.
Russia...The most likely of the remaining powers to remain neutral but still, I don't think it would approve of such a huge, powerful neighbour sitting on its doorstep. Especially if it does decide to be nice to its minorities. Hell, even a theoretical monocultural lovely liberal democratic neighbour sitting right on that border could be seen as a threat. Not just to Russian dominance of Poland but to Russia itself.
Then thats not to mention conservative German elements which would still exist to some degree even in the most absolute of possible radical victories.

 

[Typo]

Hopefully to whom ? Certainly not to foreseeing Europeans, to whom a liberal MegaGermany that forms in 1848 shall provide a decent hegemony that spares the worst horrors of the 20th century.

Foreseeing Europeans don't have prescience

Rather a "France goes berserk to regain waning hegemony, has her ass on a plate" early 1870, some decades of revanchism, a rather quicker and less bloody WWI with CP triumph, formation of earlier EU, no or contained Communism, at worst a French Hitler who shall do much less damage... Where's the worst trouble ???

Nobody wants to be dominated by the Germans

Seriously, why do people keep ignoring that the European states might be uncomfortable with been dominated by Germany?