WI: Great Stand on the Ugra River ends in a battle?

What if the standoff between Akhmat Khan and Ivan III, rather than leading to the Tatars withdrawing and de facto recognizing Muscovite independence, boils over into a full-fledged battle? Which side would win? What would be the repercussions of a Muscovite victory, or conversely a Golden Horde victory?

EDIT: Wrong thread, mods please fix, sorry
 
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