WI: Great North War delayed,merges into WoSS

The Great Northern War and War of Spainish succession engulfed virtually the entirety of the European-influenced world into a decade and a half of feirce warfare, arguably as important a Centennial event as the Thirty Years War before it Napoleonic Wars after in reshaping the diplomatic balance by waving out the old Renissance powers (Spain, Sweden, Poland) from their position to independently influence affairs and bringing Russia and Prussia to the stage, but unlike in other major war spats stayed almost entirely seperate conflicts in Western and Eastern Europe. Arguably, it only was this way due to very specific timing on the oppritunistic, unprompted joint attack on Sweden by the opposing alliance and the location of the fronts: the proximity of Denmark and Sweden and the isolation of the East Baltic backwater from the Atlantic world resulting in the GNW participants being in direct contact far away before things finally boiled over in Spain. However, what of Russia,Denmark, Poland,and Saxony had dithered in their alliance for a few years until after the Bourbon and Hansburg factions had come to blows? Certainly, tensions in the Baltic make some kind of conflict likely,but how could it pan out if it's folded into the greater War of Spainish Succession? Who might each side chose to align with, and how could that change the situation on the battlefield? How might our perceptions of the historical event change if we see it as one big conflict/series more akin to World War 1 or Napoleon?
 
Hmmm...with a 17th century POD, it's possible for the Franco-Swedish Alliance to last longer, and for therefore the coalition assembled by Peter to join the Allies. This, though, likely results in OTL or similar, since Peter will be happy with his Baltic ports and Poland...maybe picks up Livonia.

It would be more interesting to see a world where, somehow, Sweden joins the Allies and the anti-Swedish powers join the French. After this, Austria and Prussia will be facing a two-front war...
 
It would be more interesting to see a world where, somehow, Sweden joins the Allies and the anti-Swedish powers join the French. After this, Austria and Prussia will be facing a two-front war...


Some kind of spat in the Sounds, perhaps? Denmark tries to play hardball with the Dutch and British in this moment of vulnerability to try to wrestle back some lost naval-commercial clout and ends up pulling things too far? Itd likely require a case of arrogance or the dumbs, but if it appears the French are pushing deep into the Low Counteries and might break Dutch power poor judgement could result
 
Part of the issue of this is that they simply were entirely separate fronts. The GNW was Baltic centers, while the WoSS was around the North Sea, Channel, and Mediterranean. Sweden marching to the aid of France, their more traditional continental ally, is...difficult. At best you might see Sweden choosing to attack Prussia instead of Poland after Riga was secured, as the Hohenzollerns and Hasburgs were allies at this point. France would definitely be calling for Sweden to invade the German statelets to open a new front for German forces under the Hasburgs, but this probably ends the same way for Sweden. Russia takes Swedish Livonia and Estonia, and as Louis XIV isn't in a position to invade Russia to force its return even if Sweden's aid causes the Hasburgs to collapse against France, Sweden will eventually invade and will run into the problem of strategic depth. Charles XII might be convinced to not attempt such a thing and instead aim to simply retake Livonia and Estonia city by city, but that might not be so successful either unless the Ottomans are invading Russia from the south as well.

I could potentially see a French-Swedish alliance managing to draw in the Ottomans to have some affect, but for the most part they are simply too separate of fronts. Best bet would be Swedish aid in Germany allowing France to decisively defeat the Hasburgs, forcing them to the negotiating table to end it all early. France could then fund Swedish efforts against Russia, and maybe pull in the Ottomans.
It would be more interesting to see a world where, somehow, Sweden joins the Allies and the anti-Swedish powers join the French. After this, Austria and Prussia will be facing a two-front war...
This would be interesting.

Denmark would be screwed. It would be right in the way of easy movement between the Swedes and English-Dutch, and they would be clambering for Swedish forces to help them in the Spanish Netherlands. Meanwhile Austria and Prussia would be pressing for the Swedes to help them in Germany. Saxony would be screwed, right between Prussia and Austria. There goes Augustus the Strong's Saxon troops. That basically knocks out Poland from the war. The Sejm offered to mediate a truce between Sweden and Augustus IOTL, but Charles XII was too bellicose as to not make an enemy of the polish. Here though literally every one of his allies would be crying for him to not draw Poland into the war in actuality. And as England and the Netherlands would probably support Sweden gaining Norway in return for doing as such, Charles might actually do it. Sweden still has Russia though, and allying with the Hasburgs means probably no Ottoman attack on Russia from the south. The Swedes won't spend five years kicking the Poles around, but this is probably offset by Swedish forces in north Germany and the Spanish Netherlands. So Russia still likely gains the Baltic provinces, and unless France folds no one is probably going to help them reconquer them. Not sure if gaining Norway would compensate for Sweden losing Riga.

So such a scenario is probably actually best for Prussia and the Hasburgs. House Wetting probably loses Saxony, and it probably goes to Prussia as it is Protestant. Maybe to keep peace with Augustus, and cut down the Hohenzollerns, the Hasburgs force the Hohenzollerns to trade Prussia to Augustus as a personal fief for his line. It would probably be a more than equal trade in regard to population and industry, but costs the Hohenzollern's their title as King in Prussia. The Swedes won't be too effective in the sieges of the Netherlands, and so hopefully would be kept in the Baltic so that Sweden might hold some Baltic regions to have some negotiating position. Maybe the allies even convince Charles to accept Peter I's early offer for peace in return for ceding Ingria to Russia. Maybe the Hasburgs offer Sweden Mecklenberg. It's a minor German region that is connected to Swedish Pomerania, and also all but ensures the Swedes will oppose the now far more concentrated Hohenzollern state. That is to the Hasburg advantage.
 
It's hard for me to see Denmark-Norway going to war against the British with a later start date of the Great Northern War, because by that time, William III is almost dead and the future Queen Anne is married to George of Denmark. I have to imagine that circumstance binds the Danes to the Grand Alliance. This is a nightmare scenario for both France and Sweden, since the North Sea becomes an Anglo-Dutch-Danish lake, especially Sweden. So I have to imagine that France and Sweden revive their recent alliance, though they wouldn't be able to directly assist much.

Bavaria, allied with France though, could certainly aid Sweden by invading Saxony, then alligned against Sweden by virtue of being ruled in Union by Augustus of Poland-Lithuania. Charles XI (who would probably be ecstatic that he gets to fight in a massive European war), probably has to revise his strategy, but his primary objectives would still be to knock out Denmark and Poland out in order to aid the French and tie up the Russians. Still, France, Sweden, Bavaria, the pro-Philip Spanish, and their other minor allies would really have their backs to the wall here, therefore... Enter the Ottomans.

Now, the Ottomans are still licking their wounds from the last war against the Habsburgs that saw them lose Hungary and a lot of the Balkans, which ended in 1699, and there is always the threat of Russia, so Louis XIV revives the old Franco-Ottoman alliance to also include Sweden. The Turks probably won't be able to launch any real attacks, but by maintaining the vast portion of their army along the Habsburg, Russian, and Polish borders, it would force those three to keep substantial amounts of their own troops to guard their rears, keeping them from fighting against the Swedes and French. Maybe they could get the Crimean Khanate in on the action, really giving the Russians something to think about. The Ottoman Navy at this point is no match for the Royal Navy, but they could at least try to blockade Habsburg ports on the Adriatic and raid allied shipping. Obviously, Venice will have something to say about Ottoman hostility of any kind in the Adriatic, so they get involved too. And just for the shits and giggles, the Ottomans let their North African vassals off the leash to cause all kinds of havoc in the Mediterranean that the Royal Navy will have to deal with.
 
It's hard for me to see Denmark-Norway going to war against the British with a later start date of the Great Northern War, because by that time, William III is almost dead and the future Queen Anne is married to George of Denmark. I have to imagine that circumstance binds the Danes to the Grand Alliance. This is a nightmare scenario for both France and Sweden, since the North Sea becomes an Anglo-Dutch-Danish lake, especially Sweden. So I have to imagine that France and Sweden revive their recent alliance, though they wouldn't be able to directly assist much.

Bavaria, allied with France though, could certainly aid Sweden by invading Saxony, then alligned against Sweden by virtue of being ruled in Union by Augustus of Poland-Lithuania. Charles XI (who would probably be ecstatic that he gets to fight in a massive European war), probably has to revise his strategy, but his primary objectives would still be to knock out Denmark and Poland out in order to aid the French and tie up the Russians. Still, France, Sweden, Bavaria, the pro-Philip Spanish, and their other minor allies would really have their backs to the wall here, therefore... Enter the Ottomans.

Now, the Ottomans are still licking their wounds from the last war against the Habsburgs that saw them lose Hungary and a lot of the Balkans, which ended in 1699, and there is always the threat of Russia, so Louis XIV revives the old Franco-Ottoman alliance to also include Sweden. The Turks probably won't be able to launch any real attacks, but by maintaining the vast portion of their army along the Habsburg, Russian, and Polish borders, it would force those three to keep substantial amounts of their own troops to guard their rears, keeping them from fighting against the Swedes and French. Maybe they could get the Crimean Khanate in on the action, really giving the Russians something to think about. The Ottoman Navy at this point is no match for the Royal Navy, but they could at least try to blockade Habsburg ports on the Adriatic and raid allied shipping. Obviously, Venice will have something to say about Ottoman hostility of any kind in the Adriatic, so they get involved too. And just for the shits and giggles, the Ottomans let their North African vassals off the leash to cause all kinds of havoc in the Mediterranean that the Royal Navy will have to deal with.

In such a scenario, though (With Bavaria invading Saxony early on, and assuming Sweden still does as well as they did historically in Poland), might the Warsaw Confederation supporters of Stanislaw be able to rally more of the Polish nobility to the legitimacy (or at least jumping on the victory bandwagon) with Augustus being beaten out of his main power base? A full defection of Poland would both free up Charles to make a firmer offensive elsewhere as well as tie down the Habsburgs and Prussians to a certain extent, stopping them from contributing as much to the west.
 
In such a scenario, though (With Bavaria invading Saxony early on, and assuming Sweden still does as well as they did historically in Poland), might the Warsaw Confederation supporters of Stanislaw be able to rally more of the Polish nobility to the legitimacy (or at least jumping on the victory bandwagon) with Augustus being beaten out of his main power base? A full defection of Poland would both free up Charles to make a firmer offensive elsewhere as well as tie down the Habsburgs and Prussians to a certain extent, stopping them from contributing as much to the west.

At the very least, Poland descends into Civil War and Stanislaw probably has the edge. If Poland can be neutralized, if Russia can be thrown back at Narva, Charles can then turn his attention west and strike directly at Denmark. The immediate aim should be the capture of Copenhagen and the Danish fleet before it can break out and join the British and Dutch in the North Sea.
 
At the very least, Poland descends into Civil War and Stanislaw probably has the edge. If Poland can be neutralized, if Russia can be thrown back at Narva, Charles can then turn his attention west and strike directly at Denmark. The immediate aim should be the capture of Copenhagen and the Danish fleet before it can break out and join the British and Dutch in the North Sea.

Denmark sending it's fleet out when Sweden is still there with a knife at their throat? I'm skeptical they'd pursue that policy, even if I agree Britian and the Dutch would be pushing for it, until the threat of Swedish local naval supremacy has been removed. It should be easy enough to justify to their Western allies that the Baltic needs to be secure before they can move out, and that it would be (in theory,not nessicerily in execution) a quick and easy campaign to sweep the sea clean and leave Swedish forces on the Continent shriviling on the vine.
 
Denmark sending it's fleet out when Sweden is still there with a knife at their throat? I'm skeptical they'd pursue that policy, even if I agree Britian and the Dutch would be pushing for it, until the threat of Swedish local naval supremacy has been removed. It should be easy enough to justify to their Western allies that the Baltic needs to be secure before they can move out, and that it would be (in theory,not nessicerily in execution) a quick and easy campaign to sweep the sea clean and leave Swedish forces on the Continent shriviling on the vine.
Well, that would be assuming the Swedes are rapidly approaching Copenhagen and the fleet is at risk of getting captured. Otherwise, the Danish Navy would be fighting for control of the Baltic, you are correct about that. I know that the Danes did win a significant naval battle against the Swedes later on in the war during OTL, but if Charles is able to focus most of his attention westward and the Danes come to a point where they know they can't stop a Swedish invasion at all, the Danish fleet could not be allowed to fall into Sweden's hands.
 
Well, that would be assuming the Swedes are rapidly approaching Copenhagen and the fleet is at risk of getting captured. Otherwise, the Danish Navy would be fighting for control of the Baltic, you are correct about that. I know that the Danes did win a significant naval battle against the Swedes later on in the war during OTL, but if Charles is able to focus most of his attention westward and the Danes come to a point where they know they can't stop a Swedish invasion at all, the Danish fleet could not be allowed to fall into Sweden's hands.

The thing is... if the Danes can keep their fleet in the Sounds and with the addition of Prussian naval assets and the prospect of Dutch or British support in a pinch, Charles has no hope of breaking into Coppenhagen. The fortress shore-guns backed by mobile naval assets can easily blow a direct move out of the water, and it dosen't matter how good the Swedish army is if they can't physically get to the city. Denmark can only not stop an invasion if the fleet is in a position where it's well out of the way of the threat of being burnt at anchor. With allies to the south and the west, the Danish Isles will be impossible to isolate/put under siege, and would even likely be able to sustain continious naval traffic to Oslo/Christinia effectively indefinately, so barring a change to the situation elsewhere there's basically a gate slammed in Sweden's westward face.

Of course, that means there's more incentive to focus on Eastern Europe instead, where they already have a greater advantage thanks to a sharper edge in Poland and a removed Saxony. Russia likely has too much depth for them to be able to hit anything of enough importance to create pressure for negotiation on Peter's part, but what about poor Prussia? If we're operating on the assumption Sweden and France combined can coax the Sultan into the war, and Austria is somewhat more distracted from turning North (especially since their Hungarian gains are so recent and will need extra formal defenses due to local defense still being underdeveloped) the Prussians may be under some pretty intense pressure.
 
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The thing is... if the Danes can keep their fleet in the Sounds and with the addition of Prussian naval assets and the prospect of Dutch or British support in a pinch, Charles has no hope of breaking into Coppenhagen. The fortress shore-guns backed by mobile naval assets can easily blow a direct move out of the water, and it dosen't matter how good the Swedish army is if they can't physically get to the city. Denmark can only not stop an invasion if the fleet is in a position where it's well out of the way of the threat of being burnt at anchor. With allies to the south and the west, the Danish Isles will be impossible to isolate/put under siege, and would even likely be able to sustain continious naval traffic to Oslo/Christinia effectively indefinately, so barring a change to the situation elsewhere there's basically a gate slammed in Sweden's westward face.

Of course, that means there's more incentive to focus on Eastern Europe instead, where they already have a greater advantage thanks to a sharper edge in Poland and a removed Saxony. Russia likely has too much depth for them to be able to hit anything of enough importance to create pressure for negotiation on Peter's part, but what about poor Prussia? If we're operating on the assumption Sweden and France combined can coax the Sultan into the war, and Austria is somewhat more distracted from turning North (especially since their Hungarian gains are so recent and will need extra formal defenses due to local defense still being underdeveloped) the Prussians may be under some pretty intense pressure.

Did the Oresund freeze over during any of the early years of the war? The Swedes were known to occasionally simply march across on the ice...
 
Hmmm...with a 17th century POD, it's possible for the Franco-Swedish Alliance to last longer, and for therefore the coalition assembled by Peter to join the Allies. This, though, likely results in OTL or similar, since Peter will be happy with his Baltic ports and Poland...maybe picks up Livonia.

It would be more interesting to see a world where, somehow, Sweden joins the Allies and the anti-Swedish powers join the French. After this, Austria and Prussia will be facing a two-front war...
But this would be rather unlikely alignment taking into an account that Russia was just recently Hapsburg ally against the Ottomans whom the French were supporting. Besides, Russian trade mostly was with the Brits and Dutch. Ditto for Saxony. OTOH Sweden was routinely anti Hapsburg and pro French so how and why this sudden switch could happen?
 
Did the Oresund freeze over during any of the early years of the war? The Swedes were known to occasionally simply march across on the ice...

Not that I'm aware of or immediately can find, no. Though I'll admit I'm not in posesson of alot of references on that point
 
But this would be rather unlikely alignment taking into an account that Russia was just recently Hapsburg ally against the Ottomans whom the French were supporting. Besides, Russian trade mostly was with the Brits and Dutch. Ditto for Saxony. OTOH Sweden was routinely anti Hapsburg and pro French so how and why this sudden switch could happen?

well in our timline the brits and Dutch almost attacked denmark but the danes backed down from the invaison of holstein if they dont and the Dutch and brits attack. which would force denmark to be on the side of the french and sweden who would never want to be on the same side as the danes jonin upp whit the anti french coalition
 
well in our timline the brits and Dutch almost attacked denmark but the danes backed down from the invaison of holstein if they dont and the Dutch and brits attack. which would force denmark to be on the side of the french and sweden who would never want to be on the same side as the danes jonin upp whit the anti french coalition

Still leaves a problem: King August was Austro-Russian candidate and Russian anti-Ottoman interests did not change. In OTL all this did not make serious long-term difference because the main break down was Russia and Saxony against Sweden. British position during the GNW changed more than once without any serious impact on the events.

What is almost completely out of question is active Russian participation on either side on the main theater (outside Baltic region). Simply could not happen at that time by a number of reasons among which a complete absence of a valid reason would be the most obvious one. And if joining Austria at that time would be just unlikely, joining France simply would not make sense.

So, at best, Saxon-Russian confrontation with Sweden is delayed and Charles XII is free to march to the Central/Western Europe. No matter what are the Danish alignments it is rather hard to imagine Charles going against the venerable tradition and joining Austria (GA would turn in his coffin). The most probable thing happening after Charles is stuck somewhere on the Rhine or Danube, is Saxon-Russian invasion of the Baltic provinces while remaining friendly with the Hapsburgs (who had other problems on their hands).
 
Still leaves a problem: King August was Austro-Russian candidate and Russian anti-Ottoman interests did not change. In OTL all this did not make serious long-term difference because the main break down was Russia and Saxony against Sweden. British position during the GNW changed more than once without any serious impact on the events.

What is almost completely out of question is active Russian participation on either side on the main theater (outside Baltic region). Simply could not happen at that time by a number of reasons among which a complete absence of a valid reason would be the most obvious one. And if joining Austria at that time would be just unlikely, joining France simply would not make sense.

So, at best, Saxon-Russian confrontation with Sweden is delayed and Charles XII is free to march to the Central/Western Europe. No matter what are the Danish alignments it is rather hard to imagine Charles going against the venerable tradition and joining Austria (GA would turn in his coffin). The most probable thing happening after Charles is stuck somewhere on the Rhine or Danube, is Saxon-Russian invasion of the Baltic provinces while remaining friendly with the Hapsburgs (who had other problems on their hands).

Why would Sweden be so keen to lunge before securing Poland though? I know I'm trying to craft a kind of scenario where the wars do properly merge somewhat, and without some kind of co-ordinated action and/or fighting on the same fronts you basically still have "parallel wars" rather than one war over the breath of Europe. Saxony was discussed earlier as a possible land target for this coordination (Bavaria hitting Augustus' base of power to ease a Swedish co-opting of Poland following an initial invasion), and I can also see Sweden moving on Prussia rather than going south to support French pushes into the Germanies.

This would move the main theature of conflict to north-centeral Europe, which the Bourbonists could probably win (especially if the Sultan is rattling his sabers and compelling the Habsburgs to hunker down on the defensive on the Continental fronts), with the degree of success for the inital campaigns depending on just how long Russia delays her push on the Baltic and how much she's investing on the offensive. How do you think that will affect later actions? I could see a renewed push on the Low Counteries once the northern Germanies are swept up, or perhaps France would focus on taking ground from the Habsburgs in Italy both to try to coax the Ottomans into trying to retake Hungary after a few years of licking their wounds (by putting Austrian blood in the water, so to speak) and to strengthen her position in any negotiations by possession of Spain's extra-Iberian European possessions.
 
Why would Sweden be so keen to lunge before securing Poland though?

Because if there is no attack on the Swedish territories, there is nothing to "secure". The OTL activities were a by-product of the Saxon-Russian attack on the Swedish territory. No attack, no need to do anything.

I know I'm trying to craft a kind of scenario where the wars do properly merge somewhat, and without some kind of co-ordinated action and/or fighting on the same fronts you basically still have "parallel wars" rather than one war over the breath of Europe. Saxony was discussed earlier as a possible land target for this coordination (Bavaria hitting Augustus' base of power to ease a Swedish co-opting of Poland following an initial invasion), and I can also see Sweden moving on Prussia rather than going south to support French pushes into the Germanies.

Sorry, but I don't see things happening this way if Saxony and Russia are neutral toward Sweden. Even Bavarian attack on Saxony (as if they don't have other things to do) does not mean PLC's involvement and Swedish intervention in Poland.

OTOH, if the things start as in OTL with the Danish/Saxon/Russian attack then everything is going along the OTL lines and Charles is busy dealing with the OTL opponents.

Interests in these two parallel wars also were more or less "parallel" and there is a problem with making parallel lines crossing. :)

The only "non-parallel" factor was Britain due to its trade interests and it was changing position more than once during the war. However, with the exception of the initial help against Denmark, its practical ability to interfere militarily was minimal even after the WofSS was over: the British squadron was present on the Baltic Sea but that's pretty much it. Even when they went (again) on the Swedish side, there was no serious action: 1st, the big ships could not interfere into the naval operations in the shallow coastal waters (Russian galley-based operations had been systematically destroying Swedish iron industry), 2nd, British growing trade with Russia already became a significant factor (and King was not omnipotent ;)) and 3rd, there was no Russian merchant fleet which could be hurt while a naval attack on well fortified places like Riga or Revel was plain foolish.

This would move the main theature of conflict to north-centeral Europe, which the Bourbonists could probably win (especially if the Sultan is rattling his sabers and compelling the Habsburgs to hunker down on the defensive on the Continental fronts), with the degree of success for the inital campaigns depending on just how long Russia delays her push on the Baltic and how much she's investing on the offensive.

By the first few years of the WofSS Russia was almost absolutely unimportant as a military factor and none of the sides involved would bother to try to get it into the alliance. Not to mention that Russian military activities outside the Baltic region (or on the Ottoman theater, but this is a completely different story and, anyway, Russia and Ottoman empire had been in peace) were simply unrealistic both because Russian army would not be able to operate on a remote theater and because conflict between Bourbons and Hapsburgs was of absolutely no interest to Russia: all disputed territories were too far away.

On European arena Saxony also was a minor power so why would anybody bother seriously.


How do you think that will affect later actions? I could see a renewed push on the Low Counteries once the northern Germanies are swept up, or perhaps France would focus on taking ground from the Habsburgs in Italy both to try to coax the Ottomans into trying to retake Hungary after a few years of licking their wounds (by putting Austrian blood in the water, so to speak) and to strengthen her position in any negotiations by possession of Spain's extra-Iberian European possessions.

I'm still not clear which scenario you are talking about. Which factor would change thing dramatically enough to "sweep" Germany in French favor? Charles with his 30 - 40,000K Swedes marching from Pomerania?
 
Denmark won't be on the opposite side of Netherlands and England, Danish military doctrine bild on having a stronger fleet than Sweden, because Denmark didn't have the population to reach parity with the Swedish army. Going to war with Netherlands and England remove the main Danish strength and make them vulnerable to a Swedish invasion. The whole point about the Russian-Danish alliance was that the three state had a good synergy in a war with Sweden. Denmark removed the Swedish naval superiority to Russia, while Russia delivered a giant army. It was also why it was so foolish for Sweden to not end the Great Northern War through negotiations, before Denmark could reenter the war. Denmark doesn't wish for a war with France, but in the War of Spanish Succession Denmark copuld decide that France was too busy elsewhere and if the Dutch and English funded the Danes, there would be little reason not to try to take a lunch of meat from Sweden. As for Russia, if Sweden join the French side there's no reason for the anti-French alliance to not ally with Russia, no matter how unimportant they saw it, as it would keep Sweden busy on other fronts.
 
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