WI: Great Mexican-American War

[Mr. BoJangles]

The people of New Spain win their war for independence. Louisiana Purchase and Adams-Onis Treaty go as per OTL. Mexico, not wanting their brethern in the Carribbean to remain under the Spanish, continue the war to bring Cuba, Santo Domingo, Puerto Rico, and the Philippines into the Mexican nation as well. The war drags until 1825 when All of New Spain is turned over to the First Empire of Mexico.

What happens next? How do Mexican-American relationns go from here? How does the Mexican-American War go? Does it even?

 

[iori]

Mexico might get Cuba and maybe Santo Domingo (though that'd be a headache all its own soon after) on account of rebellions, but I don't see Puerto Rico falling and their's no way short of ASBs that Mexico would get the Philippines, they have absolutely no way of gaining them.

 

[Grey Wolf]

The people of New Spain win their war for independence. Louisiana Purchase and Adams-Onis Treaty go as per OTL. Mexico, not wanting their brethern in the Carribbean to remain under the Spanish, continue the war to bring Cuba, Santo Domingo, Puerto Rico, and the Philippines into the Mexican nation as well. The war drags until 1825 when All of New Spain is turned over to the First Empire of Mexico.

What happens next? How do Mexican-American relationns go from here? How does the Mexican-American War go? Does it even?

Are we assuming an Iturbide empire, or did Mexico end up with the vacillating Borbon deciding to accept the throne? IMHO the latter would probably work better both as a unifier, and as a driving force to take the Caribbean.

The next question then becomes what of Texas? There is no real Spanish-American border, except in Tejas. They certainly aren't going to be fighting further North for some time, as there's hardly anybody there (who's not an Indian).

Stealinng from Wikipedia, since I don't know enough about this bit

When the United States purchased Louisiana from France in 1803, American authorities insisted that the agreement also included Texas. The boundary between New Spain and the United States was finally set at the Sabine River in 1819, at what is now the border between Texas and Louisiana.[66] Eager for new land, many United States settlers refused to recognize the agreement. Several filibusters raised armies to invade the area west of the Sabine River.[67] In 1821, the Mexican War of Independence included the Texas territory, which became part of Mexico.[68] Due to its low population, Mexico made the area part of the state of Coahuila y Tejas.[69]

Hoping that more settlers would reduce the near-constant Comanche raids, Mexican Texas liberalized its immigration policies to permit immigrants from outside Mexico and Spain.[70] Under the Mexican immigration system, large swathes of land were allotted to empresarios, who recruited settlers from the United States, Europe, and the Mexican interior. The first grant, to Moses Austin, was passed to his son Stephen F. Austin after his death.

Would there be an 1819 decision to set the border at the Sabine, or would the USA look to press the issue and force the cession of Texas as the price for its non-intervention in the Caribbean?

More important to Washington, though, might be the question of Florida, a moribund Spanish province, but what if it becomes part of a larger and stronger Mexico? Perhaps they would trade the hope of Texas for the idea of Florida?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Mr. BoJangles]

This Mexico would not include Florida. As that would have been turned over by Spain prior to Mexican Independence. By the end of the war, Florida would be firmly American, as Texas would be Mexican.

How to gain the Philippines (realistically): A smart American who convinces congress to provide for funding/action to assist the Mexican's in the Philippines. Reason 1) To provide an American settlement there early to spark an American Filibuster later. Reason 2) Seeing a Stonger Mexico as an easier oponnent than a Weaker Spain.

Maybe?

 

[Grey Wolf]

OTL the 1819 date for both setting the Texas border, and for the cession of Florida, occurred when Spain was at the height of its fight-back against the Mexican rebels, and when Madrid, one assumes, was confident about keeping Mexico Spanish - why else trade Florida for Texas?

IMHO we'd need to map out your timeline in more detail to see if this sort of thing makes sense in your ATL. After all, would Spain cede Florida for a province it has no prospect of keeping?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Mr. BoJangles]

What I am saying is that the treaty goes per OTL. From there, what would it take for Mexico to take the rest of New Spain (or as much of it as possible)? And from there, would the Mexican-American War still happen and what would the consequences of this war be?

 

[Grey Wolf]

What I am saying is that the treaty goes per OTL. From there, what would it take for Mexico to take the rest of New Spain (or as much of it as possible)? And from there, would the Mexican-American War still happen and what would the consequences of this war be?

Oh right, your PoD is not until after that?

Well a good start would be for Iturbide to consolidate his power. I've written before how both Guadeloupe Vittoria and Santa Anna could have been killed on the same day. Remove them, and he should be able to focus.

However, in your ATL you're having effectively winning Mexican independence NOT equate to peace with Spain, but for the war to continue. I guess with an Imperial consolidation, and with Guatemala remaining part of the Mexican Empire, this might make sense.

It does though beggar the question of power projection capability! Unless Mexico can borrow O'Higgins or Cochrane, or find one of their own?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf