WI: Great Illyrian Revolt (6-9 AD) grows out of control?

[GauchoBadger]

IOTL, there seemed to be a large rebellion in the Roman province of Illyria and its vicinity, at the time of Augustus' late reign. It was commanded by two tribesmen, both named Bato, who led an alliance made up of Dalmatians, Daesitiates, Breuscians, and other Illyrian groups. They attacked Venetia, Macedonia, and the Roman client state of Thrace with much force, and it is argued that the scope of this revolt resulted in general Varus being assigned with insufficient legions for his campaign in Germania, leading to the disaster at Teutoburg Forest.
Eventually, the revolt was subdued by Tiberius and Germanicus through scorched earth and counter-insurgency tactics. It seems unusual to me, considering the appetite the Romans tended to have for pitched battle.
So, I ask: what if the "Revolt of The Two Batos" had been more successful and lasted a bit longer? Assume that Arminius still knits together an anti-Roman confederation in Germania and attacks the Rhine frontier, too.
How would this more traumatic period of early barbarian invasions affect Rome, in the short and long term?
Looking at the regime of the empire in its initial years, the main foundations (succession, imperial legitimacy, stability, etc) didn't seem to be that mature yet. Could we see Rome somehow go back to the turbulent, bellicose nature of the late republic, with threats embodied in the Germanics, Illyrians, possibly rebellious Gauls, and Parthians?

 

[ar-pharazon]

I could see it causing more chaos and destabilizing the empire.

At the same time the Illyrian revolt would be crushed though it may take longer.

As for the Germanic confederation.

Perhaps it would be better for Rome if Arminius decides to attack first.

He gets the tribes together and assaults gaul eventually he is crushed.

Now the Roman's have more incentive to go into Germania and prevent that from happening again. Whether that means genociding whole tribes or securing the region with garrisons and forts or some combination thereof an aggressive Germanic invasion might convince the emperor and senate that Germania as a problem need to be dealt with and decisively so.

 

[GauchoBadger]

Bumping for interest.
How far into Italy can the Illyrian rebels go? Mediolanum?

 

[Superninja76]

No chance. The illyrians would have to move into the relatively open, flat territory that is northern italy, where they would quite probably face a number of roman armies. Rome is not easily beaten on the ground, especially by rebels that may well be armed rabble.
Besides, once the illyrians leave their home territories, they are at a massive disadvantage, as they would be the ones suffering from guerilla warfare, and I don't doubt a major invasion of roman territory would have to deal with some sort of insurgency.

 

[GauchoBadger]

No chance. The illyrians would have to move into the relatively open, flat territory that is northern italy, where they would quite probably face a number of roman armies. Rome is not easily beaten on the ground, especially by rebels that may well be armed rabble.
Besides, once the illyrians leave their home territories, they are at a massive disadvantage, as they would be the ones suffering from guerilla warfare, and I don't doubt a major invasion of roman territory would have to deal with some sort of insurgency.

So, the best they can do is hunker down in the Balkans, where they're at a territorial advantage?

 

[Superninja76]

So, the best they can do is hunker down in the Balkans, where they're at a territorial advantage?

Essentially, yes. Without some sort of external force crippling rome or another, just as bad uprising elsewhere, the illyrians are doomed to be annihilated.