WI: Great Britain stayed out of WW1?

[Eurofed]

France had recently enacted, with British connivance, a measure to turn Italy into a French dependency and/or destroy the Italian state?

Admittedly, no, but it has been an enemy for more than a generation, has a lot of stuff Italy wants, and arguably needs to be cutted down to size if Italy wants to rise in its place. Both Italy and the Ottomans have very good reasons to fight WWI: The Ottomans have a long-standing "hereditary enemy" rivalry and recent defensive reasons, Italy has the former as well as long-standing expansionist/imperialist motives. My point was that on top of this, Italy had an aggressively expansionist (if opportunist) mindset in its ruling class and a sizable part of its middle classes, which to my knowledge the Ottomans lacked (being halfway in the struggle to modernize their state), so it had even more motive to join WWI on its initiative. Its peculiarity in this historical phase is that it has excellent justifications to join each side (the PoD only makes the OTL choice much less likely).

 

[Mr Stereo1]

I agree with the previous points. Without Britain the French and Russians would be defeated within two years tops, and the victorious central powers would turn to Britain next. Best bet for the Empire would be to side with the Central Powers really, it wouldn't matter as much about the German hegemony in Europe if the were friendly.

 

[Nae'Blis]

We've established that Britain's whole foreign policy could not possibly allow Germany to win, that we had been making major measures over the past decade that basically guaranteed our intervention. There was debate. The debate may, without Belgium last longer. The same side will still win it.

British politicians had more room for maneuver than they subsequently claimed. The obligation to intervene was not set in stone. If it had not been Grey leading foriegn policy and instead a more traditional Liberal in regards to foreign policy (or even quite a few Tories) the Entente would have been considerably weaker. Grey had failed to convert the cabinet to his standpoint in 1911 and it is not unreasonable for him to have failed in 1914. If he did not it is quite possible that he along with much of the rest of the government could have resigned. Even delaying Britains entry by a few months could have delayed it for good. The Germans would almost certainly have been even more succesfull in the west, then even if Britain did drag itself into the war, (which considering the delay and the clear German succesesus may very well not happen it is more likely that they would accept neutrality in return for the Germans guaranteeing the pre-war European borders of France, Russia and Belgium) the contribution would have been minor, the BEF might get dispatched and would then most likely be forced to engage in a Dunkirk like retreat in a matter of months, the Royal Navy may blocade Germany but German victory would be almost assured and Britain would most likely come to terms with the Germans.

 

[I Blame Communism]

British politicians had more room for maneuver than they subsequently claimed. The obligation to intervene was not set in stone. If it had not been Grey leading foriegn policy and instead a more traditional Liberal in regards to foreign policy (or even quite a few Tories) the Entente would have been considerably weaker. Grey had failed to convert the cabinet to his standpoint in 1911 and it is not unreasonable for him to have failed in 1914. If he did not it is quite possible that he along with much of the rest of the government could have resigned. Even delaying Britains entry by a few months could have delayed it for good. The Germans would almost certainly have been even more succesfull in the west, then even if Britain did drag itself into the war, (which considering the delay and the clear German succesesus may very well not happen it is more likely that they would accept neutrality in return for the Germans guaranteeing the pre-war European borders of France, Russia and Belgium) the contribution would have been minor, the BEF might get dispatched and would then most likely be forced to engage in a Dunkirk like retreat in a matter of months, the Royal Navy may blocade Germany but German victory would be almost assured and Britain would most likely come to terms with the Germans.

Interesting... I'll admit I've done lots of reading on why Britain did intervene and not enough on why she might not have and the preceding years of European diplomacy in general. I'll look into it further. Thanks for the heads-up.

 

[f1b0nacc1]

Grey and intervention

Jamhaw,

Your analysis is excellent (Grey was playing a very weak hand, and it is entirely reasonable to suggest that he might not have been able to bring his cabinet around in 1914), but the key is that without a guarantee of British support, it is extremely difficult to imagine that the French (and thus the Russians, neither of whom wanted to risk confrontation with the Germans absent support from their allies) would have been willing to press the issue after the Sarajevo incident and thus escalate the war from another dreary Balkan conflict into a general European war. In point of fact your quite inciteful reference to 1911 makes my case quite neatly, as without any likelihood of British intervention, there was no real basis for escalating the crisis at that time.

 

[perfectgeneral]

The First Morrocan Crisis precipitated Russia joining the Entante the following year. Russia wasn't the only country to join Britain in backing France. Why Russia? Why not America, Italy, Spain or none of them? Russia could see the German provocation leading to trouble for them and clearly benefited from the agreement, but what did Britain gain? A naval power like America would be of more use to Britain.

 

[Admiral Beez]

To this end, we played up Belgium, but I think Edward Grey said himself that this was policy, not real concern for the treaties. We'd have sound some other justification.

If Germany honours Belgium neutrality, what other justification can be found for Britain declaring war?

Best way to keep Britain out of the war is for Germany to avoid antagonizing Britain by avoiding the needless and pointless German naval expansion. That and avoid Belgium and I can't see the British people or gov't demanding British armies be sent to defend France and Russia against Germany and Austria-Hungary.

 

[Constantinople]

#ThisWillBeLockedSoon

 

[LordKalvert]

If Germany honours Belgium neutrality, what other justification can be found for Britain declaring war?

Best way to keep Britain out of the war is for Germany to avoid antagonizing Britain by avoiding the needless and pointless German naval expansion. That and avoid Belgium and I can't see the British people or gov't demanding British armies be sent to defend France and Russia against Germany and Austria-Hungary.

How about the one Bonar Law suggested- Britain must support its Russian and French allies. It would have been enough to win Parliament with a Tory- Liberal interventionist coalition

Grey and Law knew that if they left the French and the Russians in the lurch, no matter what happened it would be the British that suffered

If the Germans won, they would treat the British with utter scorn and no one (the Italians or the Austrians) would be inclined to deal with a treacherous Britain.

If the French and Russians won (and there are a few scenarios where they could happen) they would treat Britain as a traitor and likely would resume their anti-British policies of the 1890's freed of any fear of a German threat

Finally, if the war ended in a stalemate, the parties could simply solve their problem by making peace at the expense of Britain. The combined fleets of the continental powers would be more than a threat to the British

 

[Download]

If Germany honours Belgium neutrality, what other justification can be found for Britain declaring war?

Best way to keep Britain out of the war is for Germany to avoid antagonizing Britain by avoiding the needless and pointless German naval expansion. That and avoid Belgium and I can't see the British people or gov't demanding British armies be sent to defend France and Russia against Germany and Austria-Hungary.

I don't even know how you managed to bump a thread this old.

 

[machine3589]

I don't even know how you managed to bump a thread this old.

And by replying to a banned member to boot.