WI Gordon Brown called an election in 2007?

There have been a few threads about "The Election That Never Was," but most were from well before the actual May 6 election. So with the benefit of seeing actual results, how would Labour and Brown have fared in an October 2007 election?

I suspect they would not have done badly. I'm aware that in OTL, the election was called off because the Tories' post-conference poll surge seemed to wiped out any gains for Labour and appeared to put enormous pressure on their Lab-Con marginals. Stan Greenberg told Brown that at best, he'd be able to expect a majority of 20, so even if Labour "won" it would be a meaningless cull of MPs.

Having seen the 2010 results, though, I think the reality may have proven better. As it was, despite all the disasters of the past two years, Labour managed to retain 2nd place in the polls and held onto 250+ seats, while the Tories' topped out at 36-37% and were denied a majority.

Remember that in 2007, Brown was still in his honeymoon phase, and though the Tories would have given him a scare, it's unlikely the British public would have wanted to switch PMs after just a few months. Cameron, moreover, never fully made the sale even during the 2010 campaign, and the Lib Dems under Ming Campbell were a disaster.

So I can see the results shaking out at something like Lab 39, Con 35, LibDem 18, with Labour with anywhere between 340-370 seats, the Cons with 210-240 seats, LibDems with around 40, and others on 28 or so. Overall Labour might pick up a few seats or lose a few, with the Tories mostly making gains at the expense of the Lib Dems.

Post-election, this gives Brown greater authority as PM, and a somewhat longer sustained honeymoon, while also potentially sending the Tories into a nasty spat. Cameron probably remains as leader, but only after fending off a RW challenge, perhaps from Liam Fox. The Lib Dems dump Ming Campbell for a Clegg-Huhne battle, as in RL, probably picking Clegg.

The basic result is simply to put Brown in a somewhat more dominant position throughout the past three years, though it ultimately just delays the '10 results to 2012. Though perhaps if his popularity declines as in RL, Brown will be willing to step down in 2011 in advance of a poll, secure in having avoided the label of "unelected PM." (Not that far-fetched, as we now know he seriously considered pledging to step down in 2011 pre-campaign.)
 
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I'm scratching my head thinking of something to add but I think you've pretty much nailed it. 2007 will forever be to Gordon Brown what 1978 is to Jim Callaghan.
 
That sums things up pretty well, methinks. I'm split on whether Gordie contests the 2012 election personally, but i think at this point he's more or less content to step aside and let what may happen, happen. No, the real questions are in the composition of Brown's cabinet post-election (does lord Mandleson get rehabilitated?), and whatever becomes of David Cameron (do the tories give him a second chance? recent history suggests not...). Also, does Labour have an outside chance in 2012, if the economy is strongly enough recovered?
 
That sums things up pretty well, methinks. I'm split on whether Gordie contests the 2012 election personally, but i think at this point he's more or less content to step aside and let what may happen, happen. No, the real questions are in the composition of Brown's cabinet post-election (does lord Mandleson get rehabilitated?), and whatever becomes of David Cameron (do the tories give him a second chance? recent history suggests not...). Also, does Labour have an outside chance in 2012, if the economy is strongly enough recovered?

I would think that post-victory, the cabinet wouldn't change THAT much. I mean, he had just picked it a few months before.

I would guess that with the recession, and with the pendulum effect that makes the electorate weary with any long-governing party, Brown's numbers would have declined by mid-term, but with the Tories in disarray following their 4th successive loss, and having secured a majority with a higher vote share than Blair in '05, Brown at least has somewhat of a mandate. That should keep his numbers in 2008 from being as bad as they were in OTL. And without the need to shake things up, perhaps Mandy doesn't return, or at least doesn't return as soon?

The Tories have been pretty brutal to their leaders lately, this is true. But while he'd face a challenge, the Tories really would have no more attractive figure. Cameron could certainly argue that it was unrealistic to win a majority after an early snap poll, and he could point to having made at least some gains from the Lib Dems. So while the Tories are a mess for some time, he probably survives.

I suspect Labour would still lose in 2012, just because it's very hard for any party to hold on that long, though maybe they wind up with more seats than they did in OTL - perhaps 270 seats or so.
 
I suspect Labour would still lose in 2012, just because it's very hard for any party to hold on that long, though maybe they wind up with more seats than they did in OTL - perhaps 270 seats or so.

Of course Cameron could suffer from a smaller Neil Kinnock effect of being opposition leader for 5 years and thus not seem so fresh to the public anymore and if Labour then changed their leader again in 2011/12 after successfully riding out most of the economic crisis and making Ed or even David Miliband leader they could again do well in asnap poll and maybe kill Cameron off in the process.
 
Of course Cameron could suffer from a smaller Neil Kinnock effect of being opposition leader for 5 years and thus not seem so fresh to the public anymore and if Labour then changed their leader again in 2011/12 after successfully riding out most of the economic crisis and making Ed or even David Miliband leader they could again do well in asnap poll and maybe kill Cameron off in the process.

Again, I can think of little else to add beyond what has already been said. I'm unsure if Mandy would be recalled post-election as it OTL. The circumstances would have perhaps changed to the extent that Brown would be feeling more confident in his position to avoid the backlash of putting him in place. As a result of this, it is possible that we could have Mandelson as EU Foreign Minister instead, should Lisbon still go ahead (which I think that it would).

Whether or not Cameron would survive is a matter of some debate, I think that he could perhaps survive a confidence motion, but his authority would be damaged enough that he would still end up going anyway. The next Tory leader is a matter of debate, but my feeling would be either David Davis or perhaps even a recall of William Hague.

Labour winning in 2012 would be unlikely regardless of the leader, the economy was in far better shape in 1997 than in 1992 but the Tories still lost in a landslide. The electorate would perhaps just got bored with the government, that is what happened in 1964 and 1997 far more so than economic factors. It would also help that the electorate like Davis far more so than Cameron.

The LibDems would get squeezed and I think that their move from the left to the centre would be far more pronounced under Clegg who would win by a far larger margin than he did in OTL if the results were bad.
 
All of the above is true, but you do have to wonder how far Labour in this recent election benefitted from being the underdogs (with left wing voters moving back to them in London, Scotland and the North in order to prevent a Tory government). If they're not seen as the underdogs then they might not do as well as you might think. Also, late 2007 was the period when the SNP were riding high in Scotland, so safe Labour seats in the Central Belt may be under threat.
 
Well, you know, he MAY have lost

I've always viewed him as a coward and a ditherer for not going to the country, but I always saw it as a vicious fight if he had done so

I would put the odds at 50-50 Cameron/Brown, and agree that under Ming the Lib Dems will lose seats, but I doubt 20 as individual MPs are stronger sometimes than the party is

Kidderminster will probably reelect Dr Taylor in 2007

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
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