WI: Gorbachev Heeds Bush's Warnings

In June 1991, Moscow mayor Gavril Popov tipped off U.S. Ambassador Jack Matlock to the plot by hardline Soviet military and intelligence officials to overthrow Soviet President Gorbachev. Fearing the ramifications of a hardliner coup in the USSR, the Bush administration warned Gorbachev not once, not twice, but three times of the coup brewing against him. Gorbachev disregarded all three warnings, believing that any such action was unlikely and that his political support was strong enough to keep him in office.

Of course, as we know, in August of that year the coup was launched. Though it failed, the chain of events that the coup sparked off ultimately led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

What would have happened if Gorbachev took Bush's warning more seriously? What actions could he have taken to disrupt the Gang of Eight before they could put their plan into motion, or would that have merely lead to the coup being rushed (as evidently was the failed 2016 Turkish Coup)? What effects might this have on the survival of the Soviet Union - would it simply push the collapse back a few years, or could it potentially lead to the continued existence of the USSR into the modern day?
 
I guess that even if this specific Coup was avoided another - or others - would eventually happen. The most conservative communist elements within Soviet society -specially in the state apparatus (army, KGB, state burocracia) are still a huge part of the soviet administration.
 
If it was the mayor of Moscow who said that, why would Gorbachev need to hear it from the Americans?

Could it be he wanted to play it out so to clean house, so to say?
But yes, in either case he underestimated the threat.

Whom could have he left in charge to strike a blow against the insurgents who wouldn't have taken the seat from under his bottom?
 
If it was the mayor of Moscow who said that, why would Gorbachev need to hear it from the Americans?

This Washington Post article from 1991 speculates as to why Mayor Popov warned the Americans and not Gorbachev directly. One possibility was that he feared that coup plotters included those close to President Gorbachev at the time (and seeing that Vice President Yanayev was going to be the puppet the coup put in place, and other former Gorbachev allies that participated/might have participated, that wasn't an unfounded fear):

One reason may have been a conviction by Popov that senior U.S. officials could reach Gorbachev with a private message more easily than he could.

Monitoring Gorbachev's Kremlin appointments at the time was the Soviet leader's chief of staff, Valery Boldin, who is among those now accused of participating in the August coup. Boldin was not present during Matlock's meeting with Gorbachev.



But yes, in either case he underestimated the threat.

Whom could have he left in charge to strike a blow against the insurgents who wouldn't have taken the seat from under his bottom?

Not sure what you're asking. Are you asking who in the party, KGB or military Gorbachev could have trusted to crush the coup that was not already a part of it, or would have joined it/launched a coup of their own? Which is a good question, all things considered.
 
Not sure what you're asking. Are you asking who in the party, KGB or military Gorbachev could have trusted to crush the coup that was not already a part of it, or would have joined it/launched a coup of their own? Which is a good question, all things considered.

Precisely. Were there apparatchiki both strong enough to crush a coup and loyal to the institutions who would have recalled Gorbachev once the danger was over?

Or should we settle for someone personally loyal to Gorby? Or maybe still too young, by Soviet gerontocratic standards, to be able to take power for himself?
 
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