WI Goeben and Breslau dont make it?

Germaniac

Donor
What happens if the Goeben and Breslau don't make it to Constantinople. The Goeben and Breslau were two of the reasons that the Turks entered the war on the Central Powers side. If they sink on the way, or if they get sent to the Ottomans the Turks might not enter the war. Without another balkan, arabian, gallipoli, Caucasus front the war might end quite a bit sooner? A decisive defeat of the German Army might make things hugely different.
 
The Ottomans are going to enter the war on the German side since the Germans didn't have any territorial desires upon the Ottoman Empire (at least in 1914). Churchill's seizure of the two Ottoman battleships had nothing to do with their decision to join the Central Powers either. The Ottomans aligning themselves with the Triple Entente is basically a turkey in league with three wolves.

You have to eliminate Enver Pasha at the least.
 

Germaniac

Donor
While the seizure didnt have to do with them joining, it was a combination of the need for ships and the desire to keep the battleships from a possible enemy.
 
It would be a big blow to German prestige, and not only would it mean that Souchon and his crews are not there to pressurise the Ottoman government, the MEANS of attacking Russia is also absent - don't forget, the Ottoman Empire declared war on the Russians by a naval bombardment of their ports. I don't think a couple of little cruisers and two pre-dreadnoughts are going to be having quite the same effect.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Now, I don't enough about the process of the Ottoman declaration to say whether this means neutral Ottomans, so I'ma just assume it does.

The consequences of neutral Ottomans are fascinating. Firstly, we can pretty much rule out a CP victory. The war will likely end sooner, but how much depends on a lot of things, including chance and, more importantly, whether the Ottomans let Entente shipping through the straits.

If the Russians are able to receive modern war materiel from the west, they may not suffer such a meltdown in 1915, although they're probably not keeping Warsaw whatever happens. Meanwhile, all those forces that would have been bound for Gallipoli will presumably be comined with all or part of the Salonika force, only without Bulgaria entering the war (which they probably wont), Serbia can probably hold on long enough for it to become the Serbia force.

And then in 1916, with a better-supplied, better-moraled Russian army launching the *Brusilov Offensive from a better start line, plus an ongoing Serbian front, the Italians taking Gorizia, and probably a Romanian attack on Transylvania, we're looking at a Hapsburg breakdown a couple of years early.

What this doesn't mean is a decisive defeat for Germany, interestingly. Obviously when A-H breaks, Germany's position is hopeless, but with Germany occupying Belgium, Poland, and parts of France and America not involved, Germany is sure as hell not getting a Versailles treaty.

On the other hand, closed straits could have the same Russian breakdown, and perhaps a meltdown in 1917 as OTL, and may well end with the Entente-troops-on-the-Rhine scenario.
 

Hendryk

Banned
The consequences of neutral Ottomans are fascinating. Firstly, we can pretty much rule out a CP victory. The war will likely end sooner, but how much depends on a lot of things, including chance and, more importantly, whether the Ottomans let Entente shipping through the straits.

If the Russians are able to receive modern war materiel from the west, they may not suffer such a meltdown in 1915, although they're probably not keeping Warsaw whatever happens. Meanwhile, all those forces that would have been bound for Gallipoli will presumably be comined with all or part of the Salonika force, only without Bulgaria entering the war (which they probably wont), Serbia can probably hold on long enough for it to become the Serbia force.

And then in 1916, with a better-supplied, better-moraled Russian army launching the *Brusilov Offensive from a better start line, plus an ongoing Serbian front, the Italians taking Gorizia, and probably a Romanian attack on Transylvania, we're looking at a Hapsburg breakdown a couple of years early.

What this doesn't mean is a decisive defeat for Germany, interestingly. Obviously when A-H breaks, Germany's position is hopeless, but with Germany occupying Belgium, Poland, and parts of France and America not involved, Germany is sure as hell not getting a Versailles treaty.
That would make an interesting TL.
 
It would be a big blow to German prestige, and not only would it mean that Souchon and his crews are not there to pressurise the Ottoman government, the MEANS of attacking Russia is also absent - don't forget, the Ottoman Empire declared war on the Russians by a naval bombardment of their ports. I don't think a couple of little cruisers and two pre-dreadnoughts are going to be having quite the same effect.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

The Ottoman Government did pressure the Germans into 'gifting' them the Goeben and Breslau, so the fact that the Germans turned around later and 'forced' the Turks into the war is fair play.
 
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