WI GloRev1688/Dutch invasion fails (or isn't launched), can League of Augsburg form & contain France

Without Glorious Revolution succeeding

  • Louis XIV would still have been contained by opposing powers as in OTL 9 Years War

    Votes: 2 28.6%
  • Louis XIV would have become hegemon of Europe

    Votes: 2 28.6%
  • Louis XIV would have gotten to 1700 in a marginally better territorial position

    Votes: 3 42.9%

  • Total voters
    7

raharris1973

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The Glorious Revolution was not only a huge event for English constitutional history, , the fact of William of Orange becoming King was also important for European geopolitics. Williams's takeover in OTL took place at the beginning of the Nine Year's War, a.k.a. the war of the League of Augsburg or War of the Grand Alliance: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine_Years'_War of 1688-1697.

France did make some marginal frontier gains, and got recognition of Haiti as French, but was largely contained, and the settlement led to a short peace before the Spanish Succession caused the next war/

The line-up of combatants in the Nine Years War of 1688-1697 was France versus:


Dutch Republic
England
Scotland
Holy Roman Empire/Austria
Duchy of Savoy
Swedish Empire

If the pro-French James II still ruled in England and Scotland and Ireland, either because the William/Dutch invasion were repulsed or it was not attempted to begin with, would the Dutch Republic, HRE/Austria, Savoy, Spain and Sweden still formed and held together their Grand Alliance without England? Could this grouping have still contained France without England? Or does this guarantee early quitting by anti-French coalition members and a triumph for Louis XIV?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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I am going to go with yes- since the coalitions of the League of Augsburg involving the HRE, Netherlands and Spain were formed before the Glorious Revolution.

An interesting aspect of such a war would be military and naval interdependence between former bitter enemies, the Spanish and Dutch. Spanish Netherlands and Dutch Republic would have a common interest in containing France, and their fleets abroad would have a common interest in resisting/plundering the French (and the English, if they allied with France).
 
I think you're largely conflating two very different situations.

If the invasion is never launched, and never prepared beyond the talked-about phase, it's a vastly different situation than if the Dutch fleet sets sail, lands, and is subsequently defeated.

If the Dutch fleet is defeated, it's an immediate war between the Dutch and English with the English having a pretty good position to start from (namely, the primary Dutch army having just been trashed after great expenditures by the Republic to get them into Englad). France will likely make noise to distract or even attack the Dutch.
 
The fighting in Ireland actually held up significant forces of William for several years and more importantly deprived the Grand Alliance of its principal leader, William. Had William never launched the invasion he would have directly been leading the Grand Alliance forces from an earlier point in time. However, I think ultimately, the French would have won as a result of their naval dominance. Without having to contend with the English, French commerce will be much better off and if England trades and banks with France then their war effort is much better off. So eventually, Louis XIV would win the war, more so than OTL. However, I do not think France would win to the extent that it is the hegemon of Europe.

If William invades and is defeated or even killed, than France may very well become the hegemon. Although the French and English navies did not crush the Dutch in the Franco-Dutch War, it may go differently this time. More importantly, Louis will have the avid support of England, including the people, who are responding to a invasion of England rather than fighting an unpopular war of deceit. This is going to mean more funds from Parliament for the army and better results from the navy. In this case, the Netherlands may be crushed or at least forced to flood itself again. Meanwhile on all other fronts Louis will experience the same victories, more or less, as OTL.
 
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