WI: Giuliano de Medici, Brother of Lorenzo il Magnifico Survives?

What it says on the tine. Giuliano de Piero de Medici survives? Either he avoids the Duomo on the day of thre Pazzi Conspiracy or he still goes, but manages to survive the attack (he caught a sword blow to the head which apparently finished him off, despite being stabbed 16 times).

Does this affect Florentine history at all? How? What of the Pazzi Conspirators (IIRC Lorenzo dealt with them rather severely. Would he be able to do the same in a scenario where his brother survives?)
 
Alternately, what would happen if Lorenzo is struck down and Giuliano were to escape? Lorenzo HAD children by the time of his brother's death, but they would've been too young to take up the Medici leadership. Which would place Giuliano in a sort of guardianship position to Lorenzo's widow and children. As well as that Giuliano is head of the bank, and possibly successor as gonfalioniere (ICR if this post was hereditary or not, but young Piero would certainly be too young to occupy his father's seat in city government)
 
Giuliano will surely marry and have legitimate children of his own in both scenarios. His wife would be Seramide Appiano, niece of the late Simonetta Vespucci, allegedly Giuliano’s great love (and apparently Seramide shared the looks of her mother’s half-sister Simonetta) as the wedding was already planned and after Giuliano’s death Seramide married his cousin Lorenzo (the Popolano) and that alone would have interesting butterflies. If both brothers survived the Pazzi Conspiracy is likely who Lorenzo will deal severely with the responsables but likely without the OTL extremes (so exile and confiscation of their patrimony for the men directly involved and no punishment for the innocents and no damnatio memoriae for the entire Pazzi’s clan]
 
Giuliano will surely marry and have legitimate children of his own in both scenarios. His wife would be Seramide Appiano, niece of the late Simonetta Vespucci, allegedly Giuliano’s great love (and apparently Seramide shared the looks of her mother’s half-sister Simonetta) as the wedding was already planned and after Giuliano’s death Seramide married his cousin Lorenzo (the Popolano) and that alone would have interesting butterflies. If both brothers survived the Pazzi Conspiracy is likely who Lorenzo will deal severely with the responsables but likely without the OTL extremes (so exile and confiscation of their patrimony for the men directly involved and no punishment for the innocents and no damnatio memoriae for the entire Pazzi’s clan]
Future Cosimo I and all the rest of the Medici were from the Popolano branch weren't they? So that would be a huge change.

So, in other Lorenzo would end up playing whackamole with the Pazzi, hit them down for maybe his lifetime (ISTR that a life sentence in those days was coupled to the reign of the monarch or somesuch) but as soon as Lorenzo's dead they probably pop back up again, no?

I wouldn't have to watch Bradley James die a horrible death in a TV serie to start with.
Well, watching that scene (and Sarah Parish's grief following it) was what sort of inspired this.

So a fork in the road?
Quite possibly :)

Is this a premise for a Florentine unification?
Well, IDK if Giuliano had the political nous that Lorenzo did (I've never read that he did - although most bios/histories simply break Giuliano down into the "pretty, jock" brother with Lorenzo as the "plain, nerd" brother) that would lead to that, but it could certainly be an interesting possibility if Giuliano is less Lorenzo and more Sforza in seizing power. Although I suspect that it would galvanize the Signoria/priori against him rather quickly (i.e. public sympathy will be with him to go after the Pazzi, but I think seizing power openly will flush much of that down the drain. Unless Giuliano's rule as monarch is genuinely better than the republic. But then, one only has to see how long it took the Medici after Lorenzo's death in OTL (1492) to establish permanent control over Florence (1530s), and how many times they were chased out in the interim.
 
@Kellan Sullivan: yes Cosimo I was from the Popolano branch but not a descendant of the butterflied wedding.
Cosimo the Elder had a younger brother Lorenzo the Elder. Both brothers had two sons but grandchildren from only one of them: Lorenzo (the Magnificent) and Giuliano were the grandsons of Cosimo while Lorenzo the Popolano and Giovanni the Popolano were the grandsons of Lorenzo.
GrandDuke Cosimo was the grandson of Giovanni the Popolano and Caterina Sforza (their wedding can be butterflied by different circumstances in Caterina’s life or by the survival of Giovanni’s original fiancé Luisa, daughter of Lorenzo and Clarice... but Luisa can also survive and marry Lorenzo the Popolano) and also great-grandson of Lorenzo the Magnificent through the female (Lorenzo’s daughter Lucrezia married Jacopo Salviati and their daughter Maria was Cosimo’s mother).

In this scenario we have butterflied: Lorenzaccio (killer of Duke Alessandro), who was grandson of Lorenzo the Popolano and Seramide; the privileged position of Giulio (Giuliano’s illegitimate son) who here will likely not become Cardinal and Pope Clement VII, likely Duke Alessandro (illegitimate son of either Giulio/Clement or of Lorenzo II) plus if Lorenzo’s die also his youngest son Giuliano, Duke of Nemours (and his son Cardinal Ippolito) are butterflied...
 
@Kellan Sullivan: yes Cosimo I was from the Popolano branch but not a descendant of the butterflied wedding.
Cosimo the Elder had a younger brother Lorenzo the Elder. Both brothers had two sons but grandchildren from only one of them: Lorenzo (the Magnificent) and Giuliano were the grandsons of Cosimo while Lorenzo the Popolano and Giovanni the Popolano were the grandsons of Lorenzo.
GrandDuke Cosimo was the grandson of Giovanni the Popolano and Caterina Sforza (their wedding can be butterflied by different circumstances in Caterina’s life or by the survival of Giovanni’s original fiancé Luisa, daughter of Lorenzo and Clarice... but Luisa can also survive and marry Lorenzo the Popolano) and also great-grandson of Lorenzo the Magnificent through the female (Lorenzo’s daughter Lucrezia married Jacopo Salviati and their daughter Maria was Cosimo’s mother).

In this scenario we have butterflied: Lorenzaccio (killer of Duke Alessandro), who was grandson of Lorenzo the Popolano and Seramide; the privileged position of Giulio (Giuliano’s illegitimate son) who here will likely not become Cardinal and Pope Clement VII, likely Duke Alessandro (illegitimate son of either Giulio/Clement or of Lorenzo II) plus if Lorenzo’s die also his youngest son Giuliano, Duke of Nemours (and his son Cardinal Ippolito) are butterflied...
My bad on the Cosimo I thing. (too many people with the same names, ugh). Am I wrong in thinking that Giulio will still go into the church (just not necessarily rise as high as he did OTL) when his dad marries Semiramide? Also, I found a mention of Lorenzo il Magnifico marrying/engaged to an illegitimate daughter (Philippa/Philippine) of the duke of Savoy (Filippo I by Bona di Romagnano) before he wedded Clarice. What was the reason that that marriage/engagement was broken off?
 
My bad on the Cosimo I thing. (too many people with the same names, ugh). Am I wrong in thinking that Giulio will still go into the church (just not necessarily rise as high as he did OTL) when his dad marries Semiramide? Also, I found a mention of Lorenzo il Magnifico marrying/engaged to an illegitimate daughter (Philippa/Philippine) of the duke of Savoy (Filippo I by Bona di Romagnano) before he wedded Clarice. What was the reason that that marriage/engagement was broken off?
Giulio was born a month after his father’s OTL death so everything can happen to him here.
In OTL Lorenzo raised him and in the end the Medici were authorized to declare him legitimate using the excuse of an engagement between his parents (something who here will never happen). Giulio can still go in the church but in no way will be able to rise at its highest levels (bishop or higher would be unreachable for him).

I think that mention of an illegitimate daughter of Filippo II of Savoy is a mistake as is present only on the English wiki (while Filippo II’s youngest legitimate daughter, Filiberta married Giuliano de Medici, Lorenzo’s youngest son). If that daughter existed then her husband is another Lorenzo de’ Medici (and not the Magnificent)
 
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I think that mention of an illegitimate daughter of Filippo II of Savoy is a mistake as is present only on the English wiki (while Filippo II’s youngest legitimate daughter, Filiberta married Giuliano de Medici, Lorenzo’s youngest son). If that daughter existed then her husband is another Lorenzo de’ Medici (and not the Magnificent)
Actually it was on medlands that I saw it.

LORENZO "il Magnifico" de' Medici (Florence 1 Jan 1449-Villa di Carregi 8 April 1492). On the death of his father, he assumed control of Florence, although still without any official title. [m firstly PHILIPPINE de Savoie, illegitimate daughter of PHILIPPE I Duke of Savoy & his mistress Bona di Romagnano.] m [secondly] (Florence 28 Dec 1469) CLARICE Orsini, daughter of GIACOMO Orsini di Monterotondo & his wife Maddalena Orsini (1453-Florence Aug 1488). Lorenzo & his [second] wife had eleven children:
 
Actually it was on medlands that I saw it.
Strange because I never heard about that wedding before today plus Lucrezia searched for some time a bride in Rome for her son (so the Medici were quite decided in trying to get the legitimate daughter of one of the powerful Roman aristocrats as daughter-in-law. Marrying Lorenzo (and at what age? He married Clarice at 20/21 years and his mother was already interested in Clarice as daughter-in-law almost three years earlier) to the illegitimate daughter of a cadet Savoy prince look in contradiction with Piero and Lucrezia’s plans
 
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Strange because I never heard about that wedding before today plus Lucrezia searched for some time a bride in Rome for her son (so the Medici were quite decided in trying to get the legitimate daughter of one of the powerful Roman aristocrats as daughter-in-law. Marrying Lorenzo (and at what age? He married Clarice at 20/21 years and his mother was already interested in Clarice as daughter-in-law almost three years earlier) to the illegitimate daughter of a cadet Savoy prince look in contradiction with Piero and Lucrezia’s plans
I remember reading something similar. That Lorenzo's marriage to the Orsini put a bunch of Florentine noses out of joint. Some because Clarice was "not Florentine" (i.e. a snub to the local aristocracy), while others regarded it as the Medici attempting to buy "airs and graces" through the marriage.
 
I remember reading something similar. That Lorenzo's marriage to the Orsini put a bunch of Florentine noses out of joint. Some because Clarice was "not Florentine" (i.e. a snub to the local aristocracy), while others regarded it as the Medici attempting to buy "airs and graces" through the marriage.
Exactly. Lorenzo’s mother was an aristocratic from Florence and arranged the weddings of her eldest son in the powerful Roman aristocracy for trying to consolidate the status and power of the Medicis (as the de-facto rulers of Florence) inside and outside the city and the plan was successful.
 
Exactly. Lorenzo’s mother was an aristocratic from Florence and arranged the weddings of her eldest son in the powerful Roman aristocracy for trying to consolidate the status and power of the Medicis (as the de-facto rulers of Florence) inside and outside the city and the plan was successful.
This is true.

But back to the Lorenzo is dead, Giuliano lives idea. Giuliano lives, and marries Semiramide Appiani, has one or two kids. How would Giuliano's rule "look". Would he even be "allowed" to rule? Would he be able to calm the chaos that would ensue from Lorenzo being murdered in the cathedral and manage to come out on top?

Sorry, it's just as I pointed out above, most of the works on the Medici and that time frame don't speak much on Giuliano's personality beyond pretty and jock. No one says he's dumb, but I wonder if he would've learned to manoeuvre the same way Lorenzo did. Or is Giuliano a more forceful personality (i.e. that there would be a more "militaristic" rule) where Lorenzo was subtle/sly.
 
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