WI: Giray Ottoman Empire

Following up on this discussion, let's say Murad IV does kill Ibrahim in 1640. There is no remaining male Ottoman, so Constantinople invites the Khan of Crimea to take the throne.

The khan in question is Bahadir I Giray. There's very little information about him online (he doesn't even have a Wikipedia article), but what I've found:
  • He was taken into the Ottoman Empire as a hostage while he was still a little boy. He lived in Yambol, Bulgaria, until his father died in 1637 and he was crowned as khan in Crimea. So Bahadir is probably very well-acquainted with elite Ottoman culture, if not Constantinople itself.
  • He died of the Black Death in 1641 while besieging the Cossacks in Azov. This does provide a nice contrast with later Ottoman sultans, most of whom lived in their palaces and almost never actually fought in wars.
Let's say the khan is crowned as Sultan Bahadir I in the summer of 1640. What now?
 
There likely would be rebellion by beys and pashas, but this is before the decline of the Ottoman Empire, so that’s not really a problem, and such rebellions would likely be crushed, maybe even personally by Bahadir. He’d probably marry an Ottoman princess in order to further justify his claim.
 
This reminds of a Napoleonic timeline I tried to write (look for the thread "Franco-Prussian Alliance in 1805"). Due to butterflies, Mahmud and not Selim is killed when Mustafa IV orders both executed. Selim takes back the throne and names Alemdar Mustafa Pasha his successor.

Unfortunately, it seems information on the Girays is hard to come by.
 
This reminds of a Napoleonic timeline I tried to write (look for the thread "Franco-Prussian Alliance in 1805"). Due to butterflies, Mahmud and not Selim is killed when Mustafa IV orders both executed. Selim takes back the throne and names Alemdar Mustafa Pasha his successor.

In that scenario, wouldn’t Selim just proclaim his son his successor? After all, having presumably secured the throne and purged the Janissaries, he could certainly conceive of a child from one of his wives.
 
In that scenario, wouldn’t Selim just proclaim his son his successor? After all, having presumably secured the throne and purged the Janissaries, he could certainly conceive of a child from one of his wives.
It's certainly possible, but my thinking was that at 47 (in 1808), Selim III would be getting a bit old to have children (you'd probably need him to have several, to account for very possible childhood deaths).
 
Would an Ottoman Empire with Girays on the top turn out differently than the Osmanli empire did in the 17th and 18th centuries?

The details may be different, but in the end no. The Ottoman economy build on new conquest, the areas they took over, began to lose population thanks to the Ottomans overtaxed them, let local warlords run wild and in general mismanaged them. I don't see a dynasty those economy had build on raiding and slave trade improving on that. A few victories may push the collapse into the future, but the Ottomans was losing their tax base, while the Europeans was overtaking them in military too. I would say the Ottomans was lucky that the 18th century turned out so well for them. It was only the Austrian bad luck on other political scenes, which kept the Ottomans from losing the entire Balkans.
 
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