WI: Giray Empire?

So I remembered this post by Indicus:

I'd actually argue that the Ottomans were in direr straits in 1807 than in 1914. In fact, in 1807, I believe the Ottoman line was even nearing extinction and there was an arrangement in which the Giray dynasty would become the rulers of the Sublime Porte. If Mahmud II died before becoming Sultan, Mustafa IV would then die childless, and so the Ottoman Empire would die, replaced by the Giray Empire.

Yet, the Ottomans didn't just survive. They were resurrected by Mahmud II, and they even thrived at times in the nineteenth century.

So let's say this happens. How would the European powers react? How would the Janissaries react?
 
IIRC, that was not the only time that the line was threatened with extinction. There were rumors that, while on his deathbed, Murad IV had ordered the execution of his brother, Ibrahim. As to whether there is any truth to this, I am not sure. However, I digress...

I would imagine that there would be a scramble to prevent Napoleon from potentially causing trouble in the region. Other than that, I am afraid that my knowledge of this time period is insufficient to provide a better answer.
 
The Sublime Porte effectively dies. While a line of the Giray will almost certainly remain the rulers in Konstantiniyye, unless the Russians invade (possible, considering how weak the Porte would be in this scenario), the various pashas and beys that effectively broke away from the Ottoman Empire would still pay lipservice to the Giray, but would essentially be independent. Also, there would be no Mahmud II, and thus no one to bring them back into the imperial fold.

As such, Ali Pasha would still rule a vast swathe of land in the Balkans and Greece from his capital in Yanina. He was quite an interesting figure, promoting Greek culture despite being a Muslim Albanian. So, there would be no need for a Greek War of Independence as Greece would be independent all in name. Mehmet Ali Pasha would do even better, conquering land in Iraq and maybe even successfully taking Konstantiniyye as he wanted to do. And maybe, seeing the weakness of the Giray, the European states conquer vast swaths of the Middle East decades earlier.

But all in all, the Giray Empire is effectively going to mean the end of the Sublime Porte. If Russia takes Constantinople and Thrace, the Empire will be cut into two, and if the Balkans are lost, the base of the empire (as it was pre-1878) is lost, and thus, the Giray are just a small remnant kingdom in Anatolia, unable to achieve anything of note.
 

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The Sublime Porte effectively dies. While a line of the Giray will almost certainly remain the rulers in Konstantiniyye, unless the Russians invade (possible, considering how weak the Porte would be in this scenario), the various pashas and beys that effectively broke away from the Ottoman Empire would still pay lipservice to the Giray, but would essentially be independent. Also, there would be no Mahmud II, and thus no one to bring them back into the imperial fold.

As such, Ali Pasha would still rule a vast swathe of land in the Balkans and Greece from his capital in Yanina. He was quite an interesting figure, promoting Greek culture despite being a Muslim Albanian. So, there would be no need for a Greek War of Independence as Greece would be independent all in name. Mehmet Ali Pasha would do even better, conquering land in Iraq and maybe even successfully taking Konstantiniyye as he wanted to do. And maybe, seeing the weakness of the Giray, the European states conquer vast swaths of the Middle East decades earlier.

But all in all, the Giray Empire is effectively going to mean the end of the Sublime Porte. If Russia takes Constantinople and Thrace, the Empire will be cut into two, and if the Balkans are lost, the base of the empire (as it was pre-1878) is lost, and thus, the Giray are just a small remnant kingdom in Anatolia, unable to achieve anything of note.
Why do you say it would collapse, are you assuming that a civil war would result after the Giray take power due to lack of legitimacy?
 
Why do you say it would collapse, are you assuming that a civil war would result after the Giray take power due to lack of legitimacy?

The number one reason is that Mahmud II's reforms are avoided. Mahmud II essentially saved the empire by purging the Janissaries, destroying most of the increasingly-independent pashas and beys, and passing much-needed military reforms. If there is a way to fuck the Sublime Porte in the nineteenth century, removing Mahmud II is the best way.

But yeah, the legitimacy issue would just worsen the situation.
 
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