What if Newt Gingrich ran for President in 2008? How far would he have gotten in the primary?
Ergo, Romney probably benefits from a split in the conservative vote. He could very easily turn that into a win in New Hampshire. At that point he's the frontrunner, and probably wins the nomination. A Romney nomination helps the GOP marginally, but he still loses to Obama in November.
Interesting. So if Romney loses in 2008 who is the GOP front runner for 2012?
Gingrich ending up as the nominee in either 2008 or 2012 would be a dream scenario for the Obama administration, second only to Bush himself running (which can't happen anyway).