WI: Gingrich runs in 2008?

I think he'd pretty quickly become part of the second tier of candidates, and fizzle out pretty quickly. 2008 was very much an anti-establishment year, even amongst a lot of the Republican base - hence "the maverick" McCain getting the nomination. Gingrich, as a former Speaker of the House, is very much part of the establishment.

Plus, with the expectation that Hillary Clinton was going to get the nomination, Gingrich as the Republican nominee would probably drudge up too many memories of Clinton-era scandals for both candidates. Hillary, as the cuckolded wife, would come out better from that.

Finally, Gingrich is still the same guy with the same problems - he appears to be incapable of setting up an effective national network, he's Catholic (which still counts as a negative in some segments of the Republican base), and he's had three wives, with affairs throughout.
 
He would have gotten a lot of early hype due to his filling the Southern Conservative void. Huckabee was too populistic, Thompson too lazy. Gingrich probably surges into contention with Romney and Giuliani at the top of the polls. His pragmatic post-Congressional career would actually help in '08.

That being said, I don't see him winning Iowa. While he was a true blue conservative, his divorce and rejection of a socially conservative agenda in '94 will prevent him from gaining the support of the Evangelicals who delivered the state to Big Mike Huckabee in OTL. Ergo, Romney probably benefits from a split in the conservative vote. He could very easily turn that into a win in New Hampshire. At that point he's the frontrunner, and probably wins the nomination. A Romney nomination helps the GOP marginally, but he still loses to Obama in November.
 

bguy

Donor
Ergo, Romney probably benefits from a split in the conservative vote. He could very easily turn that into a win in New Hampshire. At that point he's the frontrunner, and probably wins the nomination. A Romney nomination helps the GOP marginally, but he still loses to Obama in November.

Interesting. So if Romney loses in 2008 who is the GOP front runner for 2012?
 
Gingrich ending up as the nominee in either 2008 or 2012 would be a dream scenario for the Obama administration, second only to Bush himself running (which can't happen anyway).
 
Top