IOTL, Spain joined France and the USA in 1779, during the American Revolutionary war. They were more attracted to the war on the issue of taking advantage of Britain's distraction than on the issue of aiding the revolutionaries. The best known pitched battle involving Spain during the ARW was the Great Siege of Gibraltar, where the franco-spanish navies almost succeeded in taking the outpost, but failed nonetheless.
But what if Gibraltar had been successfully captured during the war?
 
Well, I suppose the Spanish would probably keep it if they got it back. Likely for good, seeing how they only fought one more major war against Britain IOTL. Maybe the British later on would try and compensate by supporting Spain diplomatically, in exchange for cooperation on closing the Mediterranean when necessary.
 
If this happened, its hard to see Britain getting it back, as Spain now knows the importance of keeping it. It is very possible that Britain remains shut out of the Mediterranean for some time afterwards. Gibraltar and later Malta were important in giving them an interest in Khedival rule in Egypt.
 
If this happened, its hard to see Britain getting it back, as Spain now knows the importance of keeping it. It is very possible that Britain remains shut out of the Mediterranean for some time afterwards. Gibraltar and later Malta were important in giving them an interest in Khedival rule in Egypt.

It'd probably also push them to control extra-Mediterranean trade more vigorously. I wonder if this could lead to the British looking at Ethiopia as a viable target for conquest. It is well placed to completely force all trade to go around Africa. Plus, the Red Sea is another route into the Mediterranean. Ethiopian-Anglo-Persian alliances?
 
Actually, there ought to be a caveat. If we assume the ARW leads to the Napoleonic Wars - Britain might demand Spain hands over Gibraltar as a precondition to assistance, with Spain buckling.
 
If this happened, its hard to see Britain getting it back, as Spain now knows the importance of keeping it. It is very possible that Britain remains shut out of the Mediterranean for some time afterwards. Gibraltar and later Malta were important in giving them an interest in Khedival rule in Egypt.

There are numerous points along the coast both in Spain and Morocco that would serve a similar function. They're not as good as Gibraltar but they'd serve if the British lost the siege. I can't see them not taking something else if Gibraltar is lost, the location is too strategically important to just give up.
 
It's more likely that Britain and Spain negotiate some kind of supply or leasing agreement that might encompass one or more ports along the straits. Overall sovereignty though would remain indisputably Spanish. It also means that Anglo-Spanish political ties post Napoleonic wars are likely to be somewhat closer and even more integrated out of political and strategic necessity. Having regained the integrity of their mainland patrimony. Spain is only losing it through conquest. No amount of political bargaining, cajoling or bullying on the part of Britain will change that. It's more likely to have the opposite of its desired effect. The Spanish are more likely to just give them the finger alongside some very colourful language which may very well jeopardise access to the Mediterranean post war.
 
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