WI: Germany wins Spanish-American War

water123

water123

Most likely, the US would simply let them have the Philippines, nobody in America really cared about the islands until after the SAW. Germany would demand them from Spain after the war anyway.

But nobody, and I mean nobody is gonna touch especially Cuba. America had been wanting Cuba for generations (and frankly, if the Philippines hadn't been taken, Cuba would be the 51st state). America would actually march on Europe before it let Germany (Also of note, remember the the Venezuela Crisis was not far before this, and America made the Germans back down from that) take Cuba. Most likely, America would annex Cuba and Puerto Rico anyway, probably without even seeing a single German ship, then the Germans would turn against Spain and take all the Spanish colonies, and Spain still looses.

The only way for Spain to win the SAW is to not play. Let America have Cuba and Puerto Rico, and then focus on building up the Philippines and Africa. The days of Spanish Domination had been over for almost 300 years at that point, a land invasion of America by Spain (assuming their creaking navy could hide from the USA's long enough to get there and land troops, which is nearly ASB in itself) would just mean that Spain is gonna loose it's entire army along with America taking everything Spain has, maybe even continental land, and left as a dying pariah state.
 
Kohlticus Euraleth

Kohlticus Euraleth

Faeelin said:
People consistently think that America's prosperity came from bullying Latin America, and not having a continent's worth of resources and a well educate population. But the Kaiser thought this as well..
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It's phenomenal how much people deluded themselves regarding the US at the turn of the century.
 

RodentRevolution

Banned
Kohlticus Euraleth said:
It's phenomenal how much people deluded themselves regarding the US at the turn of the century.
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Indeed but that includes Americans and includes overestimating US capabilities and underestimating them. It is worth recalling in the Spanish-American War Cuban and Filipino rebels beat the Spanish Army, the US Navy beat the Spanish Navy and the US Army mostly just bobbed about in boats (a little harsh but a useful corrective to some of the boasting going on).

Now I can see Germany tipping the naval balance against the US...

Naval Balance (caution for January 1, 1900 so check actual dates of commission for given vessels)

However a lot would depend on the quality of German shooting, American and Spanish naval gunnery was pretty poor in the Spanish-American War but I don't know how contemporary German naval gunners matched up.

What Germany cannot do is by itself force the Americans to the negotiating table. While the Germans especially if they join in early enough to save those Spanish cruisers lost in the war have enough cruisers to be a real threat in the Pacific and break the blockade of Cuba I rather doubt they could hold the American east coast under blockade in turn. This means that the only pressure they could exert on American trade would be the withdrawal of their own shipping (a not insubstantial loss as they probably had the second largest merchant marine at this point) and attacking American flagged vessels under cruiser rules. However a lot of the impairment might be reduced by the Americans employing more British and Norwegian ships, the French and Dutch among others might get a piece of the action too.

The Philippines and Cuba are disease infested hell holes for European troops, of the 230,000 troops deployed by Spain to Cuba only around 55,000 were fit for duty at the time of the American intervention. The Germans could obviously supply soldiers in large numbers but they would have to accept they would contract malaria and yellow fever and other joys in large numbers.

I would suggest the main sticking point is going to be Cuba, for political reasons the Spanish Government needs to be seen as trying its utmost to hold on the Cuba (despite the fact that as a result of the rebellion it has become a total money sink at this stage). The Philippines might well be something they would trade for this but I am not sure it would be a very joyous bounty for the Germans. For the Americans the main motivation for going to war among decision makers seems to have been the fact that it was about to liberate itself rather than the USS Maine. If it emerges the Germans of all people might establish a base in Cuba the Americans are going to have a strong geopolitical motivation to stay in the fight.

Of course the Germans may solely be in the whole thing for prestige, in fact it is hard to see them in it for much else. At some point the whole adventure may become too expensive for all concerned.

So perhaps America get Guantanamo in a nominally Spanish Cuba and the Germans get a base in the Philippines. Both Germany and America share special trading privileges in the Spanish colonies and Spain still gets to play at being a world bestriding empire. Yet that is just one of a possible range of outcomes, the thing is though there is room to have a real fight in this scenario.
 

galveston bay

RodentRevolution said:
Indeed but that includes Americans and includes overestimating US capabilities and underestimating them. It is worth recalling in the Spanish-American War Cuban and Filipino rebels beat the Spanish Army, the US Navy beat the Spanish Navy and the US Army mostly just bobbed about in boats (a little harsh but a useful corrective to some of the boasting going on).

Now I can see Germany tipping the naval balance against the US...

Naval Balance (caution for January 1, 1900 so check actual dates of commission for given vessels)

However a lot would depend on the quality of German shooting, American and Spanish naval gunnery was pretty poor in the Spanish-American War but I don't know how contemporary German naval gunners matched up.

What Germany cannot do is by itself force the Americans to the negotiating table. While the Germans especially if they join in early enough to save those Spanish cruisers lost in the war have enough cruisers to be a real threat in the Pacific and break the blockade of Cuba I rather doubt they could hold the American east coast under blockade in turn. This means that the only pressure they could exert on American trade would be the withdrawal of their own shipping (a not insubstantial loss as they probably had the second largest merchant marine at this point) and attacking American flagged vessels under cruiser rules. However a lot of the impairment might be reduced by the Americans employing more British and Norwegian ships, the French and Dutch among others might get a piece of the action too.

The Philippines and Cuba are disease infested hell holes for European troops, of the 230,000 troops deployed by Spain to Cuba only around 55,000 were fit for duty at the time of the American intervention. The Germans could obviously supply soldiers in large numbers but they would have to accept they would contract malaria and yellow fever and other joys in large numbers.

I would suggest the main sticking point is going to be Cuba, for political reasons the Spanish Government needs to be seen as trying its utmost to hold on the Cuba (despite the fact that as a result of the rebellion it has become a total money sink at this stage). The Philippines might well be something they would trade for this but I am not sure it would be a very joyous bounty for the Germans. For the Americans the main motivation for going to war among decision makers seems to have been the fact that it was about to liberate itself rather than the USS Maine. If it emerges the Germans of all people might establish a base in Cuba the Americans are going to have a strong geopolitical motivation to stay in the fight.

Of course the Germans may solely be in the whole thing for prestige, in fact it is hard to see them in it for much else. At some point the whole adventure may become too expensive for all concerned.

So perhaps America get Guantanamo in a nominally Spanish Cuba and the Germans get a base in the Philippines. Both Germany and America share special trading privileges in the Spanish colonies and Spain still gets to play at being a world bestriding empire. Yet that is just one of a possible range of outcomes, the thing is though there is room to have a real fight in this scenario.
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actually the US Army conducted two reasonably successful amphibious landings and fought a major engagement, which isn't bad for being generally unprepared for war at peace time stations a mere 3 months prior to the engagement or landing

As to naval gunnery. Its kind of anyones guess how the navies would fare (German vs US). No one had centralized gunnery control and for that matter still don't in the Russo-Japanese War a mere 6 years later.

The main issue for the Germans is what I touched on earlier... supplying a fleet and a useful fleet base on the other side of the Atlantic when the sea lanes of communications are extremely close to American bases (and thus cruisers and other raiders). Getting there is one thing, but staying there usefully is another. Its even harder in the Pacific, although in that respect its equal hard for both sides. Sending German armies to either the Caribbean or trying something ambitious against North America itself is even a more difficult logistics problem although sending troops to the Philippines is probably within their capability (although the disease infested tropical hell issue plays there too)

I will agree that once the Spanish Navy was eliminated as a threat either by being destroyed initially in Manila Bay or being locked up in Santiago Harbor and then destroyed, the US Army and the Cuban Revolutionaries were going to win no matter what eventually. It was merely a matter of how much it cost in terms of lives lost to disease and fighting.

Now you don't have to have any kind of American embarrassment initially to create a shooting war situation for the Germans and Americans. A miscalculation between Dewey and the Germans in Manila Bay could have been more than enough to set a match to the fuse.
 

RodentRevolution

Banned
galveston bay said:
actually the US Army conducted two reasonably successful amphibious landings and fought a major engagement, which isn't bad for being generally unprepared for war at peace time stations a mere 3 months prior to the engagement or landing

As to naval gunnery. Its kind of anyones guess how the navies would fare (German vs US). No one had centralized gunnery control and for that matter still don't in the Russo-Japanese War a mere 6 years later.

The main issue for the Germans is what I touched on earlier... supplying a fleet and a useful fleet base on the other side of the Atlantic when the sea lanes of communications are extremely close to American bases (and thus cruisers and other raiders). Getting there is one thing, but staying there usefully is another. Its even harder in the Pacific, although in that respect its equal hard for both sides. Sending German armies to either the Caribbean or trying something ambitious against North America itself is even a more difficult logistics problem although sending troops to the Philippines is probably within their capability (although the disease infested tropical hell issue plays there too)

I will agree that once the Spanish Navy was eliminated as a threat either by being destroyed initially in Manila Bay or being locked up in Santiago Harbor and then destroyed, the US Army and the Cuban Revolutionaries were going to win no matter what eventually. It was merely a matter of how much it cost in terms of lives lost to disease and fighting.

Now you don't have to have any kind of American embarrassment initially to create a shooting war situation for the Germans and Americans. A miscalculation between Dewey and the Germans in Manila Bay could have been more than enough to set a match to the fuse.
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Actually on gunnery someone may well have records of German naval gunnery practices, people did conduct them and keep score.

The US Army's performance in the Spanish-American war should certainly be understood in light of starting as an under funded gendarmery that suddenly had to become an expeditionary force. However it never seriously contemplated tackling the Spanish garrison in its fortified strongholds on Cuba. Its clashes with individual Spanish regular regiments taught it that any operation against the main Spanish positions was likely to be bloody in the extreme and with too high a degree of risk of failure. Given time it could certainly have overcome a lot of its problems but Cuba is not the kind of place that a field army wants to spend a lot of time in tents.

As to Germany. The German merchant marine is considerably smaller than that of Britain's say but it is larger than that of Spain who supplied an army in excess of two hundred thousand men in addition to munitions for locally raised troops. They also managed to deploy a naval squadron and naval bases in Cuba. The issue of how long the Germans can keep forces on station may well come up but you are looking at that to not come up before around six to eight months which would by itself be longer than the entire Spanish American War of OTL.

Convoys by their very nature are hard to find on the high seas and of course can be covered by ones own cruisers. The idea that the Germans would be incapable of supplying a force in Cuba in the face of the US Navy in 1898 prior to the submission of the Spanish naval bases strikes me as rather reaching.

Of course once the Germans are there...well they might regret it. Running about after rebels and getting bitten by mossies is hardly fun and the rebels will likely turn guerilla and fade into the landscape. Now the Germans could simply burn farms and villages but that might not work as quickly as they like and the Spanish would probably rather their allies helped them expand the protected areas and thus the tax base but that is definitely a strategy for the long haul.

It is worth recalling that the Spanish can recoal their own and German warships in the Canaries as well as at Cuba.

Now the important point of the German intervention is that it comes ITTL before the destruction of the Spanish cruiser force. Afterwards it would have been a somewhat different ball game. Now I am sceptical personally of the ability of the likely Allied Squadron to sink the US battleline but certainly with four modern battleships they could drive off the American squadron.

Of course it is once the Germans have sent forth their fleets and landed troops that the Allies (in this scenario Spain and Germany) become a little stuck. Assuming that the US Navy does not lose its battleships at Santiago de Cuba ITL then the advantage long term does pass to the Americans who can look to do quite a lot. Impeding the the Spaniards and Germans from reinforcing Cuba and the Philippines would be a stretch but they could certainly harass them and might well prove capable of landing arms and later food to the rebels...the later could become more vital than bullets should the Allies approve a thorough scorched earth policy in Cuba.

In the meantime the US can look to import modern artillery to equip its army which would certainly act to concentrate minds on the Allied side and indeed with a sufficiently open minded Congress they could buy foreign merchant hulls which would significantly increase their amphibious potential.

Weighing against American victory is that this is going to be a far more expensive war with a much greater impact on the home economy. American industry needs trade. On the other hand though if the Germans are trying to push into the Caribbean sphere then America does have a lot invested in victory and can look to raise money in Britain and France and the Netherlands to help fund the war, paying out of future American prospects which were recognised to be considerable.

For the Allies the war is expensive and while the German Imperial Navy is reasonably large and modern and the German Army is very large and very professional they are likely to be stuck when it comes to finding a long term solution to the American problem. It is not impossible that the Germans might resort to third party funding but their credit is more limited most likely than that of the US.

This is of course the kind of conflict that could be decided by one naval commander making a brilliant move and smiting the main force of the enemy but for that reason you are likely to see the Jutland effect where neither side loses if they decline battle but both could lose by getting too deep in a losing fight the respective sides are both likely to play safe.
 

galveston bay

RodentRevolution said:
Actually on gunnery someone may well have records of German naval gunnery practices, people did conduct them and keep score.

The US Army's performance in the Spanish-American war should certainly be understood in light of starting as an under funded gendarmery that suddenly had to become an expeditionary force. However it never seriously contemplated tackling the Spanish garrison in its fortified strongholds on Cuba. Its clashes with individual Spanish regular regiments taught it that any operation against the main Spanish positions was likely to be bloody in the extreme and with too high a degree of risk of failure. Given time it could certainly have overcome a lot of its problems but Cuba is not the kind of place that a field army wants to spend a lot of time in tents.

As to Germany. The German merchant marine is considerably smaller than that of Britain's say but it is larger than that of Spain who supplied an army in excess of two hundred thousand men in addition to munitions for locally raised troops. They also managed to deploy a naval squadron and naval bases in Cuba. The issue of how long the Germans can keep forces on station may well come up but you are looking at that to not come up before around six to eight months which would by itself be longer than the entire Spanish American War of OTL.

Convoys by their very nature are hard to find on the high seas and of course can be covered by ones own cruisers. The idea that the Germans would be incapable of supplying a force in Cuba in the face of the US Navy in 1898 prior to the submission of the Spanish naval bases strikes me as rather reaching.

Of course once the Germans are there...well they might regret it. Running about after rebels and getting bitten by mossies is hardly fun and the rebels will likely turn guerilla and fade into the landscape. Now the Germans could simply burn farms and villages but that might not work as quickly as they like and the Spanish would probably rather their allies helped them expand the protected areas and thus the tax base but that is definitely a strategy for the long haul.

It is worth recalling that the Spanish can recoal their own and German warships in the Canaries as well as at Cuba.

Now the important point of the German intervention is that it comes ITTL before the destruction of the Spanish cruiser force. Afterwards it would have been a somewhat different ball game. Now I am sceptical personally of the ability of the likely Allied Squadron to sink the US battleline but certainly with four modern battleships they could drive off the American squadron.

Of course it is once the Germans have sent forth their fleets and landed troops that the Allies (in this scenario Spain and Germany) become a little stuck. Assuming that the US Navy does not lose its battleships at Santiago de Cuba ITL then the advantage long term does pass to the Americans who can look to do quite a lot. Impeding the the Spaniards and Germans from reinforcing Cuba and the Philippines would be a stretch but they could certainly harass them and might well prove capable of landing arms and later food to the rebels...the later could become more vital than bullets should the Allies approve a thorough scorched earth policy in Cuba.

In the meantime the US can look to import modern artillery to equip its army which would certainly act to concentrate minds on the Allied side and indeed with a sufficiently open minded Congress they could buy foreign merchant hulls which would significantly increase their amphibious potential.

Weighing against American victory is that this is going to be a far more expensive war with a much greater impact on the home economy. American industry needs trade. On the other hand though if the Germans are trying to push into the Caribbean sphere then America does have a lot invested in victory and can look to raise money in Britain and France and the Netherlands to help fund the war, paying out of future American prospects which were recognised to be considerable.

For the Allies the war is expensive and while the German Imperial Navy is reasonably large and modern and the German Army is very large and very professional they are likely to be stuck when it comes to finding a long term solution to the American problem. It is not impossible that the Germans might resort to third party funding but their credit is more limited most likely than that of the US.

This is of course the kind of conflict that could be decided by one naval commander making a brilliant move and smiting the main force of the enemy but for that reason you are likely to see the Jutland effect where neither side loses if they decline battle but both could lose by getting too deep in a losing fight the respective sides are both likely to play safe.
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Mahan notwithstanding, the small number of major US warships makes cruiser warfare far more likely than the US Navy seeking the decisive battle.

Nature will make any German deployment ugly really quickly as only within the next year does anyone actually study how important mosquitoes are in the tropics. Toss in the expense we have both mentioned and this kind of thing gets to be really ugly for the German government (as it is after all war they didn't really need to start much less fight) while the importance of the Caribbean as being in the American front yard makes things easier politically for the Americans. Spain loses no matter what when it comes to the financial and the political cost of defeat was bad in OTL, what this would do would be interesting although probably hard to predict reasonably.

As to shooting, depends on how realistic the conditions were for that target practice. The Germans have never fought a naval war (at this point) while all the Navies drew lessons from this war and the Russo-Japanese War. I would be surprised if the Germans were any better really as it isn't until centralized gunnery control gets developed that reasonably accurate shooting becomes the norm in the navies of the major powers.
We are a long way from broadside to broadside at this point.

I agree that the Allies (or Europeans as I called them) have bases. The difficult part is supplying those bases in the Caribbean with coal, parts etc as all of that must be imported. While it is likely there may be American raids in the area of the Canary Islands, as they are still a long way from the Caribbean some of the problems with reach are on the American side (its a long way to Africa from Charleston, the closest base) so nothing likely decisive would occur off the African or Spanish coasts.

The Americans do have substantial economic advantages, not just in economic size and ability to borrow, but also they have little to fear in regards to their North Atlantic trade, as most of the worlds shipping is British (well over half) and the UK/US trading partnership is huge in monetary and carrying capacity terms. I doubt the British would view German attempts to interfere warmly.
 

galveston bay

Mrstrategy said:
Would Russia take part in the war?
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that seems unlikely, but if they did the risk of others joining in opposite of them becomes a factor... the Russians are already pissing off the Japanese (forcing them to back down from some of their gains from the Sino-Japanese War)
 

galveston bay

Mrstrategy said:
Would the Americans have have soldiers at coast against german raids?
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probably, most of the troops raised by the US for the war (which in OTL only last 10 weeks) never even left training camp before it ended and some were simply sent to the Philippines to fight that war. Troops there are aplenty, particularly if the Americans haven't conducted any landings yet... the timeline at the start of the thread is wrong. The Americans didn't conduct landings in Cuba until June 22 mainly because it took time to assemble the shipping and troops to do so.

https://www.loc.gov/rr/hispanic/1898/chronology.html

By the way, many may not know this, but Malaria was commonplace in most of the South and parts of the Midwest throughout the late 19th Century. That problem is why the US created the US Public Health Service and the Centers for Disease Control. It is also why even now that entire area has special Mosquito Control Districts.

Some of the troops who went to Cuba had Malaria before they even got there as they were in Florida in the summer (mosquito season)
 

Janprimus

ennobee said:
I think the German government got blindsided by the rash actions of some gloryhound navy comanders in Manilla and has to go all in to save face. The German Navy had the choice of either crawling back, appologizing to the emperor and risk virtual dismantlement to the size of a coast guard or it could go all in and if the campaign proves successful become the dominant player in an increasing militaristic Germany. For now their greatest challenge is to keep the ball rolling and feeding the German public with ever increasing success stories. For if they get clobbered or even just bogged down in a guerilla or trench war, the German public and eventually the German ruling aristocracy will eventually call them back and call them to answer.
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You're exaggerating a bit. Germany needed a lot bigger fleet than just a coast guard, to counter other European Powers. It would however benefited the domestic lobby of the army and thus would have lead to a smaller navy, so probably no competition with the UK, if things go bad. Germany and Spain could win on points, but I doubt it would be decisively, certainly not in every theatre.
 
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