If, by Divine (or more likely, Satanic) intervention, the Nazis win the Battle of Britain, they (read: "Hitler") will almost certainly attempt to launch Operation [Mammal-that-cannot-be-named]. At which point Germany would lose about half of its army and the Kriegsmarine would cease to exist. At this point in time, there was something Adolph completely failed to understand while planning the invasion of England: that you do NOT fuck with the Royal Navy.
WI: Germany wins Battle of Britain
- Thread starter Kaiser K
- Start date
Amen to that. Hitler must have thought the British were going to quickly throw in the towel like the French did.
As so many others have pointed out unless the Germans can somehow follow this up with the unmentionable sea mammal the strategic results are going to be limited.
Assuming that winning the Battle of Britain means driving the RAF to its northern airfields and securing air superiority over southern England. The Germans will be in a position to continue daylight bombing over London and the rest of southern England. They will be able to interdict all naval traffic in the Channel. They will be able to retard the British bombing campaign over Germany and Europe. They will be able to force the British to commit greater resources to defend the home islands, lessening what will be available for North Africa and the Pacific.
They will not be able to force the British to the peace table. They will not be in a position to completely blockade the British Isles and starve them out. They will not be able to completely destroy the RAF so that maintaining air superiority will come at a continuing cost. They will not be able to wreck Britain's industrial base, though they will be able to cause it greater damage than in OTL.
In short winning the air battle would be a great victory for the Germans, no two ways about it. It would however not be a war winner, and if the Germans carry out Operation Barbarossa in 1941 most of the Luftwaffe will be sent east and the control over British skies would promptly be lost.
Assuming that winning the Battle of Britain means driving the RAF to its northern airfields and securing air superiority over southern England. The Germans will be in a position to continue daylight bombing over London and the rest of southern England. They will be able to interdict all naval traffic in the Channel. They will be able to retard the British bombing campaign over Germany and Europe. They will be able to force the British to commit greater resources to defend the home islands, lessening what will be available for North Africa and the Pacific.
They will not be able to force the British to the peace table. They will not be in a position to completely blockade the British Isles and starve them out. They will not be able to completely destroy the RAF so that maintaining air superiority will come at a continuing cost. They will not be able to wreck Britain's industrial base, though they will be able to cause it greater damage than in OTL.
In short winning the air battle would be a great victory for the Germans, no two ways about it. It would however not be a war winner, and if the Germans carry out Operation Barbarossa in 1941 most of the Luftwaffe will be sent east and the control over British skies would promptly be lost.
The question is what does the 3rd Reich have to do to gain a victory?
1. Not switch bombing airfields to London, given this happened at Hitlers order its a rather unstable pivot point that can swing both ways.
2. The Germans realise the importance of Fighter Commands Radar instilations
3. Develop long range fighters able to follow the bombers to the edges of the midlands.
If the second point occurs then the RAF looses much of its advantage on the Luftwaffa putting the BoB truely down to pilot skills. This has the potential to allow the Germans to seriously haras any instilations on the Southern British coastal regions.
While this doesn't help a German invasion into England, it totaly prevents the English from doing the opposite. Now even if the Americans join the war, unless they can reclaim the skies (which is fairly doubtful if the Germans have had the strategic initive for this long). Operation Overlord cannot be launched from Britian.
The second front will never get opened up, and the 3rd Reich will likely go on to develop its Wunderwaffa, but still loose to the Soviets, just a year or so later.
Stalin who has been left on his own this entire time is going to see all the Allies discredited and it unlikely to allow the French, Polish or other European exiled governments back into Europe. Instead setting up pro communist ones like Poland and East Germany in our timeline.
It is my opinion that any failure for the British during the Battle of Britian is a 'loss' for Europe in general. And Britian very did nearly loose the Battle of Britian.
1. Not switch bombing airfields to London, given this happened at Hitlers order its a rather unstable pivot point that can swing both ways.
2. The Germans realise the importance of Fighter Commands Radar instilations
3. Develop long range fighters able to follow the bombers to the edges of the midlands.
If the second point occurs then the RAF looses much of its advantage on the Luftwaffa putting the BoB truely down to pilot skills. This has the potential to allow the Germans to seriously haras any instilations on the Southern British coastal regions.
While this doesn't help a German invasion into England, it totaly prevents the English from doing the opposite. Now even if the Americans join the war, unless they can reclaim the skies (which is fairly doubtful if the Germans have had the strategic initive for this long). Operation Overlord cannot be launched from Britian.
The second front will never get opened up, and the 3rd Reich will likely go on to develop its Wunderwaffa, but still loose to the Soviets, just a year or so later.
Stalin who has been left on his own this entire time is going to see all the Allies discredited and it unlikely to allow the French, Polish or other European exiled governments back into Europe. Instead setting up pro communist ones like Poland and East Germany in our timeline.
It is my opinion that any failure for the British during the Battle of Britian is a 'loss' for Europe in general. And Britian very did nearly loose the Battle of Britian.
They weren't the only ones who missed targets a lot. The RAF (and later the USAAC) strategic bombing campaign were notorious for their raids covering wide areas in an effort to hit a single factory, and they still often didn't put it out of action despite dropping thousands of tonnes of bombs. In that period it was a lot harder to hit small targets like a radar station than people often realise, and the aircraft that could do it reliably (Stukas, perhaps Bf 110s) suffered very heavily in British airspace. Level bombing from high altitude could hit area targets, especially in daylight, but could not be relied upon to destroy small hard targets like that without a lot of bombs being expended.
It's also interesting to note that airfields and radar stations were fairly difficult to put out of action for long periods. The structure of the radar masts meant they resisted blast damage fairly well (since it passed right rhough their framework); while the airfields were often using grass runways which were fairly easy to repair if hit. Damage to the hangars and support facilities was much more serious, but again these were fairly small targets.
I disagree. As soon as the American buildup in Britain begins, they'll be able to wrest control of that airspace from the Germans. It might take a little while for the Luftwaffe to lose that control, but the sheer number of American aircraft and pilots that are available will do it eventually. Don't forget that any Allied pilots that survive being shot down will be back in a cockpit within days, while any German pilots are gone for good, so attrition will favour the Allies. This goes double if the bulk of the Luftwaffe is facing off against the Russian air force. After that, Overlord proceeds largely along the same lines as OTL.
Couldn't they just interfere temporarily the radars with chaff? The Allies did that a few times with German radars
The French "Threw in the towel" because due to a confluence of very bad fortune they were overwhelmed. They did not surrender lightly.
The myth of the "Cheese eating surrender monkey" is a creation of arrogant Americans post war who do not know what actually happened.
That only works briefly (less than half an hour) and basically just annouces that you're doing a raid. It worked for the Allies because the Germans had to conserve their few fighters and put them in the way of the bombers. The RAF in the BoB would just go to high alert if jammed and cover all of southern England in fighters...
Know why he did that? Because he knew they were screwed and didn't want more french to die when they were screwed anyhow.
They could do that because Air Mashal Dowding never allowed the Luftwaffe to engage more than one third of his forces at one time .
Smart man, him.
Things weren't looking good for the French for sure, but Reynaud sealed the deal when he got rid of Gamelin and replaced him wit Weygand, before that there had been a change of saving the forces in the Belgian Pocket, after that, not a chance.
Also, saying you're beaten 5 days into the battle does kind of say surrender-monkey, even if your defeat is somewhat inevitable.
The smart idea with tin foil was known by both sides early on. Nobody wanted to be the first to use it because... the opposition would then also use it. So, both just kept it to themselves.
True, early bombing was lucky if they hit the right country, with the exception of the stuka. Even so, hitting a lattice mast is not so easy. Damage it is even more difficult. The bomb blast will just go through the lattice work.
What Dowden feared was that the area stations copuld be hit. Those were either sitting in a hut above ground or just in a basement, but typically on the airfield itself.
If that had been understood, the centres with all their commuications equipment, telephone lines and personnel could not easily be replaced. A lattice mast is not so difficult to get back in business.
So, let's imagine that LW with new machines, drop tanks, the works, are master's of the skies over South East England.
US is not in the war at that time. We are talking August 1940. Still nearly 1 1/2 year to go.
Then what? if they slack RAF might be back, which will mean no additional forces for Barbarossa.
Invasion fears in 1940 in the German command? I don't think that was high on the agenda.
The Channel would have been closed. However, they transported coal on coastal conveys. The only one thing railways were far better at. Churchill wanted to establish that the Channel was not closed; hence the costal convoyes until somneone told him to stop the nonsense.
But what would it have decided in a strategic context?
Could it even have been sustained for months or years?
Let's now imagine that LW can bomb any factory or anything else they desiore in the entire South East (up to about London).
The sea creature which-must-not-be-named is still not a real option because of RN.
Could they do a "Crete" invasion at Land's End or capture Torbay? It is a bit Cul-de-Sac.
The interesting one is if Churchill gets voted out and Halifax starts on the peace terms because a part of Britain is lost
Holding South-East hostage might be a great idea after all. It could end up in a draw.
Ivan
True, early bombing was lucky if they hit the right country, with the exception of the stuka. Even so, hitting a lattice mast is not so easy. Damage it is even more difficult. The bomb blast will just go through the lattice work.
What Dowden feared was that the area stations copuld be hit. Those were either sitting in a hut above ground or just in a basement, but typically on the airfield itself.
If that had been understood, the centres with all their commuications equipment, telephone lines and personnel could not easily be replaced. A lattice mast is not so difficult to get back in business.
So, let's imagine that LW with new machines, drop tanks, the works, are master's of the skies over South East England.
US is not in the war at that time. We are talking August 1940. Still nearly 1 1/2 year to go.
Then what? if they slack RAF might be back, which will mean no additional forces for Barbarossa.
Invasion fears in 1940 in the German command? I don't think that was high on the agenda.
The Channel would have been closed. However, they transported coal on coastal conveys. The only one thing railways were far better at. Churchill wanted to establish that the Channel was not closed; hence the costal convoyes until somneone told him to stop the nonsense.
But what would it have decided in a strategic context?
Could it even have been sustained for months or years?
Let's now imagine that LW can bomb any factory or anything else they desiore in the entire South East (up to about London).
The sea creature which-must-not-be-named is still not a real option because of RN.
Could they do a "Crete" invasion at Land's End or capture Torbay? It is a bit Cul-de-Sac.
The interesting one is if Churchill gets voted out and Halifax starts on the peace terms because a part of Britain is lost
Holding South-East hostage might be a great idea after all. It could end up in a draw.
Ivan
I suppose they could build a causeway to supply those bomber bases. It'll come in handy later on anyway.