WI Germany was able to take the Philippines?

bard32

Banned
The title says it all. In 1898, Britain, Germany, Spain, and the United States,
were all waiting to see who'd be in control of the Philippines. Dewey had defeated the Spanish Asiatic Fleet in the Battle of Manila Bay. Dewey had set up a "line of death," beyond which no British, or German, ship, could pass without being fired on. Britain respected that. Germany didn't. Ships of the
Imperial German Navy were routinely trespassing. So an American Coast Guard cutter opened fire on the German ships. The British respected it.
There was a fear that Spain would turn the Philippines over to Germany.
 
Japan takes the Philippines in WW1.
With a major land campaign in WW1, the Japanese Army, is less willing to invade China in the Thirties, sticking with Manchuria.
Japan concentrates on it's Navy and it's Pacific Territories.
 
Well, if Germany gets the Philippines it could strengthen Spanish/German relations perhaps enough to push spain into the Central Powers. A fact that makes World War I quite interesting.

Germany taking the Philippines will also escalate American/German tensions. Leading to earlier feelings of animosity. I don't see it going anywhere though, I think the isolationist sentiment in the US is too high at this point. Although it might...

America is also spared the bad PR of the Philippine insurrection with all of that going to the e-e-eevillll Germans. Mind you, being who they are, the Germans will probably be far more efficient...

If World War 1 happens I agree Japan will probably focus on the Philippines and wage a major campaign in which they oust the Germans. This could take quite some time, especially if the Germans have someone like Lettow-von Vorbeck er whatever in charge.
 
I'm not convinced the Japanese have the capability of taking the Philippines in WWI. That's a huge undertaking. I suppose it would depend on how the German administration performed.

Well, if Germany gets the Philippines it could strengthen Spanish/German relations perhaps enough to push spain into the Central Powers. A fact that makes World War I quite interesting.

Germany taking the Philippines will also escalate American/German tensions. Leading to earlier feelings of animosity. I don't see it going anywhere though, I think the isolationist sentiment in the US is too high at this point. Although it might...

America is also spared the bad PR of the Philippine insurrection with all of that going to the e-e-eevillll Germans. Mind you, being who they are, the Germans will probably be far more efficient...

If World War 1 happens I agree Japan will probably focus on the Philippines and wage a major campaign in which they oust the Germans. This could take quite some time, especially if the Germans have someone like Lettow-von Vorbeck er whatever in charge.
 
I think the Japanese had the capability of seizing the Philippines from the Spanish if they wanted to and, in particular, the Americans had not done it first. The WWI scenarios outlined above are realistic, tho I would include that von Spee's squadron may be based in Manila rather than in Tsingtao.

Its entirely likely that the Japanese may govern the Philippines in a similar way they governed and integrated Formosa into the Japanese Empire. Aguinaldo may be convinced that working with fellow Asians was the best route.

However, I believe that Japan's expansion into Manchuria is a given and entirely practical in order to gain access to markets.
 

~The Doctor~

The idea of a Pyrenees Front in WWI intrigues me.

I have no doubt it would bog down into trench warfare, but would Spain be able to hold out against the French? And would the French have the manpower to stave off both the Spanish and German armies?

Italy could have gone either way, really - it all fell down to the issue of the Tyrol. If the CPs can convince Austria-Hungary to give it up... then we have another Front in France, the Central Powers virtually control the entire Mediterranean... and France is spread just too thin when the Verdun offensive rolls around.:cool:
 
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The idea of a Pyrenees Front in WWI intrigues me.

I have no doubt it would bog down into trench warfare, but would Spain be able to hold out against the French? And would the French have the manpower to stave off both the Spanish and German armies?

Italy could have gone either way, really - it all fell down to the issue of the Tyrol. If the CPs can convince Austria-Hungary to give it up... then we have another Front in France, the Central Powers virtually control the entire Mediterranean... and France is spread just too thin when the Verdun offensive rolls around.:cool:

It does bring to mind the possibility of a 2nd Peninsular campaign as Portugal was actually on the Entene side. Most of its effort was in Africa (I think) but it did send a force to the Western Front. Spain siding with Germany might mean them then fighting a war of two fronts as well.
 
I think the Japanese had the capability of seizing the Philippines from the Spanish if they wanted to and, in particular, the Americans had not done it first. The WWI scenarios outlined above are realistic, tho I would include that von Spee's squadron may be based in Manila rather than in Tsingtao.

Its entirely likely that the Japanese may govern the Philippines in a similar way they governed and integrated Formosa into the Japanese Empire. Aguinaldo may be convinced that working with fellow Asians was the best route.

However, I believe that Japan's expansion into Manchuria is a given and entirely practical in order to gain access to markets.

The key question will be if the western powers would let a nation of yellow barbarians to take over such an strategic archipelago and to rule a big old Christian community. I've always though they wouldn't. In 1895 they merely tried to annex Liaoning and they were kicked out by Russia, Germany and France.

Not to mention this is before the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, and even if that Japanese invasion happens after its signing in 1902 I don't think the Brits would let them anyway. A Japanese Philippines doubles the extensionof the Japanese Empire, blocks China and threatens Indonesia. One thing is to let the Japs fight the Russians over distant backwaters like Korea and to a lesser extent Manchuria, and other very different is to let them to have a real shot at Asian domination.

Just to make a figure, in 1904 everybody though Japan was crazy to go to war and that Russia would stomp it (in 1895 everybody had assumed that China would win as well). The Japanese victory, despite the re-cut of Japan's gains made in port Arthur, was enough to make everybody paranoic about Japanese expansion and let to the birth of the "Yellow Peril" quote. And even when WWI changed all and the Japanese were recruited to fight the Hun, the Entente only let them to take what nobody else wanted 8except the Chinese). They weren't allowed to impose the 21 Demands on China, nor to keep any of the gains they made in Siberia during the Russian Civil War, even if the Japanese withdrawal meant the expansion of communism in the east. Up to the late 1920s, everybody feared more the "yellows" than the "reds".
 
I'm not convinced the Japanese have the capability of taking the Philippines in WWI. That's a huge undertaking. I suppose it would depend on how the German administration performed.

Can we guess poorly based on their experience in Africa? OTOH,the Filipinos are Catholics. Hrmm.

One thing that occurs to me is that Japan might get a LoN mandate over a "Republic of the Phillipines". Outright annexation seems, to me anyway, unlikely.
 
The question is not if Japan could have taken the Philippines from the Spanish, but could they have taken them from the Germans in WWI. I think that's dubious. German rule is likely to be considerably superior to Spanish rule, and the Germans will fortify the islands and station forces there.

I think it's pretty unlikely that Germany would take the islands in the first place - and if they did, I doubt anyone would want the Japanese to gain them, so there will be pretty serious pressure applied to warn them off, not least of which from the British, who don't want the Americans antagonized.

I think the Japanese had the capability of seizing the Philippines from the Spanish if they wanted to and, in particular, the Americans had not done it first. The WWI scenarios outlined above are realistic, tho I would include that von Spee's squadron may be based in Manila rather than in Tsingtao.

Its entirely likely that the Japanese may govern the Philippines in a similar way they governed and integrated Formosa into the Japanese Empire. Aguinaldo may be convinced that working with fellow Asians was the best route.

However, I believe that Japan's expansion into Manchuria is a given and entirely practical in order to gain access to markets.
 
Can we guess poorly based on their experience in Africa? OTOH,the Filipinos are Catholics. Hrmm.

One thing that occurs to me is that Japan might get a LoN mandate over a "Republic of the Phillipines". Outright annexation seems, to me anyway, unlikely.

I think by 1914 the Germans had improved their performance in Africa - and their resiliance in East Africa is testament to that. I would think the problems of an invader are greatly magnified in the Philippines over East Africa, and the Japanese don't have a fraction of the power projection capability that the British have, nor contiguous territories.
 

bard32

Banned
Can we guess poorly based on their experience in Africa? OTOH,the Filipinos are Catholics. Hrmm.

One thing that occurs to me is that Japan might get a LoN mandate over a "Republic of the Phillipines". Outright annexation seems, to me anyway, unlikely.

Every place the Japanese got a League of Nations Mandate over, they turned into a fortress. Remember Tarawa? There was a War Stories with Oliver North
episode about it on the Fox News Channel about two or three years ago. The
commander of Japanese forces on Tarawa, Admiral Shibasaki, had boasted that the United States, with a hundred men, couldn't take the island in a hundred years. He was so confident in his defenses. Well, it turned out that he
was a little too confident in his defenses. Because the Marines came storming ashore and took the island. The same thing probably would have happened in the 1940s.
 
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