Instead of necro bumping one of the older threads on this topic, I thought it'd be better to start a a new one. In 1887, Bismarck arranged the
Reinsurance Treaty to deal with the collapse of the League of the Three Emperors. It was to prevent a Russian convergence toward France, securing Germany against the possibility of a two-front war. The TL;DR version of this treaty is as follows: 1) Germany and Russia would remain neutral in the event of a war with a third party, excluding France and Austria-Hungary, 2) Germany would not intervene in the event of a Russian move on the Bosporus and the Dardanelles.
In 1890 Russia asked for a renewal of this treaty, but the Reinsurance Treaty in large part rested on Bismarck's prestige. His successor Caprivi felt unable to keep this in place, but the Foreign Office prepared a denunciation of the Dual Alliance with Austria-Hungary. Wilhelm II refused this, believing his familial ties with Tsar Alexander III would be sufficient to ensure cordial relations with Russia and also didn't want to renew because it could endanger ties with Britain. He didn't realize the Tsar, like many of his relatives, found him to be obnoxious and Germany's refusal to renew this treaty contributed to the formation of the Franco-Russian Alliance.
So my question is as follows:
I. What would happen if Wilhelm II had a change of heart (he changed his mind all the time, so it's in the realm of possibility) and renewed the Reinsurance Treaty? Would the rapprochement between Russia and France be avoided?
II. What would happen if the treaty, and particularly the secret protocol on the Bosporus/Dardanelles, became public knowledge? More precisely: How pissed off would Austria-Hungary be that Germany so blatantly disregarded its interests in the Balkans in favour of Russia's?
II.a Could the French-Russian rapprochement be replaced by a French-Austro-Hungarian rapprochement as a result or could fences between Berlin and Vienna still be mended, assuming Germany wants to?
II.b If a French-Austro-Hungarian rapprochement comes about, how would it affect the development of A-H and Russia into the twentieth century?