WI: Germany never unifies

Marc

Donor
Proposition: Take Brandenburg-Prussia out of the equation, optimally between 1415 and 1618, and Germany remains a polynomial region.
 
Bismarck dies early, Bavaria grows to incorporate Wurtemburg and Baden as semi-equal states in a South German Confederation, and France teams with Austria to support a Zolliverin minus Prussia that eventually coalesces into the Rhine Republic. Ironically it eventually unifies with Luxembourg and Flanders as equals with talk of association widespread for Denmark and the Netherlands. Prussia goes east and eventually takes over much of the OTL Baltic states and balance of Poland. All starting *after* Napolean, perhaps as late as 1845.

As I've recently done and continue to do alot of research around your first point *cough*shameless timeline plug*cough* by the very earliest point Bismark becomes politically relevant it's already too late to head off the economic integration and cultural zeitgeist of a German identity. (The Zolliverin and Kultar movement had tied those knots by the mid-30's) and the consolidation of German states not subject to outside suseranity and small enough in number to be reasonably managed. At that point, the steady growth in Pan-German pressure from the middle out is basically an established fact (The first threatening level being reached by 48'; though still weak enough to be held down). Prussia and Austria have enough instiutinstional mass to avoid getting sucked in, perhaps, and the clock can be temporarily rolled back with (anti)liberal applications of Blood and Iron assuming neither power tries to co-opt the nationalism for their own benefit, but with a POD that late some of the minors are going to crack under popular pressure and you'll see a union formed either peacefully or forcefully.

The real turning point on the matter is Vienna at the latest , but more likely the dissolution of the HRE or even the secularization structural reforms of the last decades of the 18th century. The finalization of removing 9/10ths of the German states, with all the consolidation of political power,breaking down of administrative and economic barriers, new exoectations of political involvment, and a change from a provencial mindset made the rise of German nationalism among the professional classes and petty bougious a natural course
 
Well, if you can keep any of the medieval Stem Duchies (ideally a few), than it becomes less than likely that Germany will ever unify. But that might be too easy and too far back.
 
Have external powers buff places like Hannover, Saxony and Wurtemberg to protect them from "predators" like Austria and Prussia. If the places is split 5-7 ways with strong states, they can resist unification conquests.
 
Proposition: Take Brandenburg-Prussia out of the equation, optimally between 1415 and 1618, and Germany remains a polynomial region.
Best ways to do it is to tie Brandenburg with Poland before triumph of reformation in Brandenburg. For example Jogaila has no sons, Frederick the Iron marries his daughter Hedwig (they were bethroted IOTL) and gets Polish throne, or Elector Joachim II happens to be staunch Catholic and thanks to his marriage to another Hedwig Jagiellon, daughter of Sigismund I, he or his son gets throne of Poland. In such case Brandenburg remains Catholic island in Northern Germany and toghether with Poland-Lithuania creates northern analogue of Habsburg Empire.
 
You would need at least pre-Napoleon POD avoiding unification and even that would be probably bit hard. Best what you can do is delay unification with some decades.

I would say, that it is far easier before Napoleon, but a POD after Napoleon is still possible, while the probablity shrinks with every year.

Prussia could loose several wars, while Austria could remain weak by loosing their own wars.

After the Austro-Prussian war, any balkanization is only possible through foreign intervention and enforced balkanization.

The easiest way would be, that Prussia continues to controll Warsaw (like a short time before the Napoleonic Wars) while Austria transforms into some Austro-Hungarian-Croatian-Bohemian Federation. you also need to prevent the formation of any larger state in Western Germany.

Another way would be to form several medium-large sized states which balance each other. (Basically a larger Saxony, Bavaria, a little bit smaller Prussia, Hannover, An independent state in Westfalia and the Rhineland, and Baden and Württemberg in the South). If alle these medium states have a similar size, any unification would be far more difficult, since there would be no hegemon.
 
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