WI Germany never surrenders in WWI

[Tanc49]

Hi folks,

Let's say the German mindset in 1918 is similar to the German or Japanese one in 1945 and refuses to surrender until all that's left is rubble.
Would the Entente gave enough power and will to physically conquer all of Germany? Would a revolution happen? Or would we see a partial occupation and endemic guerilla?

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

Plan 1919 plus blockade plus Kiel mutiny. No need to ruin Germany, the same Germans would get rid of the Kaiser a là Russian way.

 

[Garetor]

German positions were already collapsing. Whether the powers that be wanted to keep fighting or not was irrelevant. They were done, and the advances made in the 100 days show that. The Hindenburg line was broken, and even if the Germans crapped out another one somehow it would have been overrun as well. For the German military high command, in particular, surrendering then was actually the best option because they were able to blame-shift to the civilian government in cowardly fashion before the Allies ground their faces into the mud too much.

This might actually be a godsend for the Spartacists. The more soldiers on the frontline, the fewer who can be turned into Freikorps. I have my doubts about whether their revolution can succeed, still, but this gives them the best possible chance.

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

Probably more than a million more casualties in a slow, grinding campaign. The French would use (& lose) more colonial troops which may have consequences for the Empire post-war. The number of American dead would climb steadily, both in numbers and as a percentage of Entente / Allied losses - that could have repercussions for later US reactions to events in Europe and harden the isolationist stances. Large part of western Germany suffer similar damage to Belgium & North Western France with an increase in civilian casualties. Attacks through the Austro-Hungarian Empire break into Bavaria & Silesia; Germany relocates troops from the Ukraine to meet this threat on a southern front, which means less food arrives from the East. Italy probably chooses to drop out once Austria Hungary surrenders in the belief that they've done their share and will receive what was promised.

Peace - either everybody collapse in an exhausted heap or we get an even more severe peace than Versailles - none of the Allies will feel any sympathy towards Germany.

And then the Spanish influenza pandemic sweeps through an even more shattered, exhausted and starved Europe, accelerating the numbers of OTL dead.

 

[Grey Wolf]

The only way I can see this playing out is that the central government and high command refuse to ask for an armistice.

But while they are doing this refusing, the front has collapsed and revolution has broken out.

The best outcome is for the German states to begin asking for armistices - Hesse-Darmstadt, Bavaria, Baden etc. They could either cite the collapse of central authority meaning that the sovereign elements of the empire have taken matters into their own hands, or go the nuclear option and secede. The latter would probably be very popular in Bavaria!

 

[Tanc49]

The Hindenburg line was broken, and even if the Germans crapped out another one somehow it would have been overrun as well.

Oh yeah, of course the Germans cannot win at this point. The question is more how much they can still bleed the Entente and is the Entente willing and able to ground whatever last redoubt might be. Basically, is a WWI Battle of Berlin possible?

Italy probably chooses to drop out once Austria Hungary surrenders in the belief that they've done their share and will receive what was promised.

Would Italy be "allowed" to do that though?

Peace - either everybody collapse in an exhausted heap or we get an even more severe peace than Versailles - none of

Yeah, wouldn't be a nice peace. Would bd interesting to see if Wilson is as much an idealist when the coffins start coming home in bigger number

 

[snerfuplz]

Oh yeah, of course the Germans cannot win at this point. The question is more how much they can still bleed the Entente and is the Entente willing and able to ground whatever last redoubt might be. Basically, is a WWI Battle of Berlin possible?

If the Kaiser and/or hard-line conservatives wanted to go down fighting they would have enough people to do so. After all many Friekorp members would be in Latvia in 1919 fighting to carve out little German fiefs. However, they would not be able to do a Battle of Berlin because Berlin would be in the hands of the revolutionaries. Wilson had already promised the German people a "just" peace if they overthrew the Kaiser. This provided the Germans a desirable alternative compared to a war to the death

 

[Analytical Engine]

France is going to want the Rhine and Ruhr occupied even more ITTL. Especially if Germany is undergoing its own version of the Russian Revolution.

 

[Garetor]

France is going to want the Rhine and Ruhr occupied even more ITTL. Especially if Germany is undergoing its own version of the Russian Revolution.

It would also improve the position of the Bolsheviks. With a longer war and Germany undergoing revolution, the Entente will not want to be sending men and materiel off to Russia. Meanwhile, the Bolsheviks are going to be practically vibrating with excitement. The Entente and Central Powers in a real apocalypse struggle to the death? The German populace left with no choice but to revolt to end the war? All it would take is for the exhausted Entente troops to refuse to put down German revolutionaries for Lenin to have an early stroke brought on by an excess of joy.

 

[Tanc49]

It would also improve the position of the Bolsheviks. With a longer war and Germany undergoing revolution, the Entente will not want to be sending men and materiel off to Russia. Meanwhile, the Bolsheviks are going to be practically vibrating with excitement. The Entente and Central Powers in a real apocalypse struggle to the death? The German populace left with no choice but to revolt to end the war? All it would take is for the exhausted Entente troops to refuse to put down German revolutionaries for Lenin to have an early stroke brought on by an excess of joy.

By pushing an international strategy they might also exhaust themselves in the Civil War though

 

[Garetor]

By pushing an international strategy they might also exhaust themselves in the Civil War though

Oh, sure, that could be bad. But even OTL, they held out hope for the world revolution to spark even long after any serious appraisal saw the moment had passed. In this timeline, they're going to be even more dedicated to the prospect.

 

[Garrison]

Oh yeah, of course the Germans cannot win at this point. The question is more how much they can still bleed the Entente and is the Entente willing and able to ground whatever last redoubt might be. Basically, is a WWI Battle of Berlin possible?

Yes it is, though wildly unlikely. Bear in mind the Entente and USA expected the war to go on into 1919. The collapse of the Germans in the 100 Days seems to have taken everyone by surprise barring Field Marshal Haig who concluded, correctly, that the war could be ended in 1918 if the Entente kept pushing.

Would Italy be "allowed" to do that though?

By 1918 not having to prop up the Italians is going to be a relief to the Entente and post war I think the Italians will do no better worse than OITL

Yeah, wouldn't be a nice peace. Would bd interesting to see if Wilson is as much an idealist when the coffins start coming home in bigger number

As stated above they expected the war to go on into 1919 and larger US losses taken against an enemy who just won't accept they've lost is unlikely to get the Germans better terms.

ETA: The only real upside here is that defeating the German army on German soil and having the Entente march triumphantly through Berlin will kill off the 'stab in the back' myth.

 

[GDIS Pathe]

German collapses in revolution and civil war the Entente probably carve out an occupied zone along the Rhineland and possibly Baden that gets milked for resources. Central and Eastern Europe become even more of a mess than it was historically

 

[snerfuplz]

German collapses in revolution and civil war the Entente probably carve out an occupied zone along the Rhineland and possibly Baden that gets milked for resources. Central and Eastern Europe become even more of a mess than it was historically

Foch in particular wanted to detach the Southern German States from Prussia by signing separate peace treaties with them. If the Entente invades Germany he may get an opportunity to do just that

 

[stodge]

I simply can't see how Germany fights on into 1919. Even if the Kiel Mutiny is somehow suppressed early, the Navy will play no further part and the British blockade will cause further hunger and death exacerbating the effects of the Spanish Flu.

Austria is in no position to fight either and is collapsing under ethnic revolt.

Winter would make offensive operations difficult in the West but while the British and French are exhausted, the Americans are not and will take a more dominant role in the March 1919 offensive. Against a weak and malnourished defence, towns and cities fall quickly and often without bloodshed. The first American troops are soon over the Rhine at which point the individual component parts of the German Empire begin to break away and sue for peace.

The Allies soon find themselves trapped in the midst of a humanitarian disaster and anarchy which can only be compared to the Thirty Years War. Germany (or what's left of it) is occupied and administered before being divided into new Northern and Southern states.

 

[Jack Brisco]

I simply can't see how Germany fights on into 1919. Even if the Kiel Mutiny is somehow suppressed early, the Navy will play no further part and the British blockade will cause further hunger and death exacerbating the effects of the Spanish Flu.

Austria is in no position to fight either and is collapsing under ethnic revolt.

Winter would make offensive operations difficult in the West but while the British and French are exhausted, the Americans are not and will take a more dominant role in the March 1919 offensive. Against a weak and malnourished defence, towns and cities fall quickly and often without bloodshed. The first American troops are soon over the Rhine at which point the individual component parts of the German Empire begin to break away and sue for peace.

The Allies soon find themselves trapped in the midst of a humanitarian disaster and anarchy which can only be compared to the Thirty Years War. Germany (or what's left of it) is occupied and administered before being divided into new Northern and Southern states.

Indeed. Believe it was felt by some in the USA that America was just getting warmed up when the war ended. 1919 was planned for the knockout punch to Germany. In the fall of 1918 the Allies were turning the war into a war of movement. Had things not stopped when they did the Germans could not have stopped the Allies, especially the Americans.

 

[Matteo]

Hi folks,

Let's say the German mindset in 1918 is similar to the German or Japanese one in 1945 and refuses to surrender until all that's left is rubble.
Would the Entente gave enough power and will to physically conquer all of Germany? Would a revolution happen? Or would we see a partial occupation and endemic guerilla?

The result will be a rather swift total and crushing defeat because the German economy and society were beginning to collapse in the autumn of 1918. Casualties on the Entente side will be much lower.

And the political result will probably be a partition of Germany. The southern States will regain their independence. Prussia will lose Rhineland that will become an independent State.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

In Sept 1918 the German Army still had lots of Divisions - just not many Regiments to fill them with and even less so after the 100 days offensive

Basically they no longer had enough soldiers or logistics to prevent the superior Allied armies from rolling into Germany and occupying it.

Possibly be better for the world had this happened - just not those on both sides involved at the time - given subsequent events in the 30s and beyond.

 

[Tanc49]

Basically they no longer had enough soldiers or logistics to prevent the superior Allied armies from rolling into Germany and occupying it.

The Battle of Berlin had 700k German soldiers, the Spring Offensive had 4 millions. While they might have had material difficulties, there was manpower for a fight to the death

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

Would Italy be "allowed" to do that though?

If Italy drops out of the war it loses it's place at the conference table when the war finally ends.