I know its not what the OP asked, but what if the POD is a security leak tipping of the French. They are ready, mines are laid, they can draw in aircraft and fight ferouciously. The British Lise ships, more of the French survive.
Might Vichy not join the axis then and we got the French fleet not in german hands, but on the same side.
still maintain further losses on French side would have prompted more collaboration rather than a better showing by RM. just sticking to historical events the RN pursued Strasbourg across the Med, if sunk all the capital ships would have been damaged, destroyed, or captured?
for French to operate their submarine fleet and super destroyers would have been more acceptable to Germany and more feasible? cede the dozen or so auxiliary cruisers over to Axis side and open some of far flung bases to KM (on clandestine basis)
of course Axis side needs a different scenario than to allow Japanese occupation of Indochina? not sure Germany would ever favor French interests over Japan?