WI: Germany managed to butterfly away British intervention - Impact on British economy and industry?

Thomas1195

Banned
The French repeatedly failed to make any significant gains in the Western Front for more than three years against a much wider and spread out German defensive line. How in the world are they supposed to make big gains against a much shorter and considerably more concentrated German defence in Alsace-Lorraine in a shorter timespan?
I said they only gain if they abandon cult of the offensive. If not, then no chance
 
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Thomas1195

Banned
Second I do not disagree but then it is just an overheating commercial economy exporting like crazy to France and Russia with investment in more output but nothing that loks to improve the British economy long term. I suspect Russia had plenty of gold but OTL the British gave tons of credit, perhaps expecting gold rich Russia was good for it, but I think oil was likely not as abundant (only Baku area then) nor necessary with Persia giving ample supply. So the UK at best bulks up on gold and gets even more addicted to gold standard economics post war?
First, it would be no where near crazy as OTL, because none of the beligerents had the same ability to pay as the Brits. Mean while, a large bunch of Liberals in the government would protest against lending/selling on credit too much. Next, the UK imported most of their oil from the US. Getting oil without paying hard currency would be quite attractive.

Third, if the UK can supplant Germany in neutral markets that is potentially only as good as the quality of the goods. Germany will return and if it has quality goods those markets fall away, especially if Germany is in real need of exports and can damp down costs whereas the UK will be in the midst of a boon cycle with high inflation pressure. That returns you to the ingredients for the big late-Twenties bust, only maybe minus the debt load.
The neutral markets also include their home markets. British producers can capture most of these gaps permanently, as German optics, dye, pharma...industries would be geared to war. Besides, keeping traditional markets from countries like Japan would be desirable. And they might even demand Germany to sell some patents, especially chemical, as payments for goods.



And Keynes would eventually have bigger influence in the policies as Liberals still hold the government. The Asquith Social Liberals (no longer Classic Liberal) had begun to move away from the laissez faire approach even before the war, so the government would be even more interventionist than OTL during interwar period.
 
I said they only gain if they abandon cult of the offensive. If not, then no chance

What exactly do you quantify as "abandoning the cult of the offensive"? If you're talking about 1914.-style offensives, then I'll have to inform you that they did abandon them IOTL as well and didn't make any major gains with "trench fighting tactics" all the way to 1918., and that was with British help, American funding and against a spent and demoralized German army.

The French aren't punching through Alsace-Lorraine defences ITTL.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
What exactly do you quantify as "abandoning the cult of the offensive"? If you're talking about 1914.-style offensives, then I'll have to inform you that they did abandon them IOTL as well and didn't make any major gains with "trench fighting tactics" all the way to 1918., and that was with British help, American funding and against a spent and demoralized German army.

The French aren't punching through Alsace-Lorraine defences ITTL.
I mean Joffre style offensive pouring their troops in front of German machine gun line.
 
First, it would be no where near crazy as OTL, because none of the beligerents had the same ability to pay as the Brits. Mean while, a large bunch of Liberals in the government would protest against lending/selling on credit too much. Next, the UK imported most of their oil from the US. Getting oil without paying hard currency would be quite attractive.


The neutral markets also include their home markets. British producers can capture most of these gaps permanently, as German optics, dye, pharma...industries would be geared to war. Besides, keeping traditional markets from countries like Japan would be desirable. And they might even demand Germany to sell some patents, especially chemical, as payments for goods.



And Keynes would eventually have bigger influence in the policies as Liberals still hold the government. The Asquith Social Liberals (no longer Classic Liberal) had begun to move away from the laissez faire approach even before the war, so the government would be even more interventionist than OTL during interwar period.

Could not one see the Germans exporting to earn cash, the British might merely buy and not reform. As much as Asquith might be a modernizer, what real pressure is there if Britain can just import? The bigger threat to Britain is the tariff war looming if the 1920 USA elections go as OTL. Again, I suspect the UK may not be better situated given its playing middleman, that was how it led up into 1914, why change if not gearing to fight?

I suspect Germany gets to pay higher prices but the blockade may not exist as your thoughts seem to follow, the UK used its ability to blackball and buy up shipping, here the Government may not be able to burn cash on such a thing without being an active belligerent. And I suspect the neutrals are not as willing to close trade off, thus Germany might have options, best of all to buy in America and have it shipped under US flag. That alone up ends the Entente.

I am by no means an expert on British domestic politics, especially in this era, but it appears the Liberals had a bare hold on Government and internal tensions that war both glossed and exposed, so I am not certain one can merely assume Asquith holds on to power or the Liberals survive the other domestic issues against a war in Europe even with the UK riding it out. I opine that without the pressure of war, reform is often given short shrift, the UK here may very much just carry on. But I enjoy the cauldron of ideas.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Could not one see the Germans exporting to earn cash, the British might merely buy and not reform. As much as Asquith might be a modernizer, what real pressure is there if Britain can just import? The bigger threat to Britain is the tariff war looming if the 1920 USA elections go as OTL. Again, I suspect the UK may not be better situated given its playing middleman, that was how it led up into 1914, why change if not gearing to fight?
The case of import substitution had been well-known fact in many countries during the war OTL. IOTL, even Germany had shortage in optics despite its dominance in this sector.

I am by no means an expert on British domestic politics, especially in this era, but it appears the Liberals had a bare hold on Government and internal tensions that war both glossed and exposed, so I am not certain one can merely assume Asquith holds on to power or the Liberals survive the other domestic issues against a war in Europe even with the UK riding it out. I opine that without the pressure of war, reform is often given short shrift, the UK here may very much just carry on. But I enjoy the cauldron of ideas.
Well, and Liberal Britain without war could easily launch reforms as well as some Keynesian investment in roads, electricity, agriculture... under the influence of Keynes, who IOTL could not exert much influence on the Tories and Labour during interwar.

It would be great to see Moseley alive.
 
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