WI: Germany loses Army Group South...

Okay, we all know about the Battle of Stalingrad and how the Soviets encircled the German 6th Army in the city.

What most people did not know is that the Red Army was on the verge of cutting off all the formations South of the Rostov-Stalingrad line.

For those of you who do not know what I am talking about, here is a helpful picture(showing the German advance up to November 18th):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Eastern_Front_1942-05_to_1942-11.png

As you can see, Rostov lies right on the Black Sea.

Historically, the Soviets concentrated too much on Stalingrad and didn't realise what they had until it was to late to exploit. Also, Erich Von Manstein ran some defensive manuevering even after the Italian Eigth Army disintergrated and managed to get Hitler to withdraw the Army Group before it was too late.

But, let's say the Soviets either realise what they got or Hitler remains his stubborn old-self. And thus, they capture Rostov, effectively cutting off Army Group A(about 400,000 men). They then proceed to demolish both the 6th Army and Army Group A.

Now, after that, how fast does Germany lose the war?
 
Okay, we all know about the Battle of Stalingrad and how the Soviets encircled the German 6th Army in the city.

What most people did not know is that the Red Army was on the verge of cutting off all the formations South of the Rostov-Stalingrad line.

For those of you who do not know what I am talking about, here is a helpful picture(showing the German advance up to November 18th):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Eastern_Front_1942-05_to_1942-11.png

As you can see, Rostov lies right on the Black Sea.

Historically, the Soviets concentrated too much on Stalingrad and didn't realise what they had until it was to late to exploit. Also, Erich Von Manstein ran some defensive manuevering even after the Italian Eigth Army disintergrated and managed to get Hitler to withdraw the Army Group before it was too late.

But, let's say the Soviets either realise what they got or Hitler remains his stubborn old-self. And thus, they capture Rostov, effectively cutting off Army Group A(about 400,000 men). They then proceed to demolish both the 6th Army and Army Group A.

Now, after that, how fast does Germany lose the war?

Yes, this is very popular theme on the Russian AH boards and forums. It was discussed many times and in the end we (alternativa.borda.ru) concluded that the success of the "Big Saturn" could end the war from 6 months to 1 year earlier than in OTL BUT the success itself was highly unlikely because the Red Army in the end of 1942 simply wasn't ready to undertake so large-scale mobile operation. The army fought too long in the defense stance, the personnel, HQs and logistics wasn't ready for deep breakthroughs as this proposed offensive. The Kharkov offensive earlier that year was the full failure so the Stavka decided not to be too risky.
 
What would happen in the West? I don't think the Western Allies would let the Soviets occupy the whole of mainland Europe...
 
maybe this would increase the chances of coup in germany and a peace with the west?

and so the allies are let into europe instead of fighting their way in through france
the situation would be bizare though... but the wermarht in west europe would ider be disarmed along with the ss probably after some fighting with the more stubborn ss units, or the high comand would change acording to allied preferance and regroup against the soviets, and the german armies in the east would ider just surrender or retreat towards berlin

the soviets would then be expected to stop the atack but staljin definitly wouldnt like that and probably push on towards berlin aniway

the cold war would go a lot diferent, as the red army would be ewen stronger, not suffering from the long fighting with he germans, and the allied peace with germany would make staljin more hostile towards the british and americans, seariously increasing the chances of the cold war newer becoming cold at all, especially since the nuclear threat wasnt there to keep the soviet back till 1945
 
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