WI: Germany launches the first dreadnought?

FBKampfer

Banned
What would the political and military responses be if in 1906, instead of HMS Dreadnought, the world's navies are obsoleted by an SMS Nassau analog?

Clearly there's much of the same scramble in the world's navies to get new competitive designs building so as not to be left behind. I also expect some heads to roll in Whitehall.

But beyond that, what's the political response?
 

SsgtC

Banned
Seeing as most of the major navies in the world were already building Dreadnaught-type ships, I don't see much changing. The IJN Satsuma, though completed as a mixed battery ship, was laid down as an All Big Gun design. The USS South Carolina was an All Big Gun ship that, though completed after Dreadnaught, was actually laid down before Dreadnaught. And several other navies were also exploring the concept. About the only major change is in the nomenclature. In that we don't refer to battleships as pre-Dreadnaughts, Dreadnaughts and Super Dreadnaughts.
 

FBKampfer

Banned
Seeing as most of the major navies in the world were already building Dreadnaught-type ships, I don't see much changing. The IJN Satsuma, though completed as a mixed battery ship, was laid down as an All Big Gun design. The USS South Carolina was an All Big Gun ship that, though completed after Dreadnaught, was actually laid down before Dreadnaught. And several other navies were also exploring the concept. About the only major change is in the nomenclature. In that we don't refer to battleships as pre-Dreadnaughts, Dreadnaughts and Super Dreadnaughts.

Satsuma is a fair point.

However I will point out that Dreadnought was laid down in October 1905 and commissioned December of 1906, vs USS SC being laid down in December of 1906 and commissioned in March 1910.

And again, the premise is this Nassau is laid down approximately May of 1905, and Germany doesn't drag ass finishing her, so she is accepted in December 1906. Approximately concurrent with SC even being laid down.


Surely there's a certain loss of prestige in the RN, as they're monumentally one-upped by a nation they're having a naval race against.


And Germany already being seen as somewhat of an aggressor and constructing the most offensive (in every sense of the word) ship to date, certainly this sours things further between the two.

Perhaps outright UK support for the Entente, instead of conditional support in the even Belgium's neutrality isn't respected?
 
Okay, I'm not an expert on battleships, but is this scenario plausible?

Scenario: Germany launches the first ' all big gun ship' in 1906, several months ahead of the British Dreadnaught. At that time there is an arms race underway, but with an all out war only a theoretical possibility, navy buildup is still pretty much a gentlemen's pastime. However suddenly Germany feels like it just scored the 1-0 goal in the first half and winning is a possibility.

Result: Germany doubles down on building big ships and neglects the development of 'the poor man's clobberstick', the U-boat. WW1 comes around, we will see a completely different battle of Jutland but no convoy raids and no Lusitania. WWII will have to do without the iconic bearded Nazi U-boat 'Ka-leu' and in 2018, model ship building will be a lot less interesting.
In how far the absence of a WW1 u-boat war will influence the Americans leading up to WWII and on is really stuff for alternate history.
 

SsgtC

Banned
Satsuma is a fair point.

However I will point out that Dreadnought was laid down in October 1905 and commissioned December of 1906, vs USS SC being laid down in December of 1906 and commissioned in March 1910.

And again, the premise is this Nassau is laid down approximately May of 1905, and Germany doesn't drag ass finishing her, so she is accepted in December 1906. Approximately concurrent with SC even being laid down.


Surely there's a certain loss of prestige in the RN, as they're monumentally one-upped by a nation they're having a naval race against.


And Germany already being seen as somewhat of an aggressor and constructing the most offensive (in every sense of the word) ship to date, certainly this sours things further between the two.

Perhaps outright UK support for the Entente, instead of conditional support in the even Belgium's neutrality isn't respected?
Crap, I misremembered the info on SC. Still, not much changes. The RN wasn't operating in a vacuum. Multiple navies were still considering/designing/building All Big Gun ships. And even with Germany being first past the post, Dreadnaught will still be revolutionary due to her use of turbines and her high top speed. Nassau and South Carolina both retained triple expansion engines and generally lower speed (20kts for Nassau and 18 for SC.)

So while the RN might lose a little face, I don't think it substantially changes anything. They can still out build everyone. Maybe they decide to speed up construction even more. Or maybe they take a page out of the USN's book and go to superfiring turrets earlier. But I don't think we see anything truly drastic.
 
There will be a panic in the British press at the thought of the RN's Battleships being made obsolete and a temporary rise in Anti German rhetoric but militarily not much changes. Dreadnought is still building and British shipyards will still out build the rest of Europe while also meeting South American and other orders.
 
There will be a panic in the British press at the thought of the RN's Battleships being made obsolete and a temporary rise in Anti German rhetoric but militarily not much changes. Dreadnought is still building and British shipyards will still out build the rest of Europe while also meeting South American and other orders.
It'll be much like the response to Gloire.
Build something vastly superior.
 
Response would vary based on why they are building the first Dreadnought. OTL Germany was limited in size of what it could build by the Kiel Canal, and Tirpitz did not want to expand it on his own as that would come out of his budget, which would hurt naval construction for years

So if Germany is building the first Dreadnought that means one of two things
  1. Kiel Canal expansion has money allocated to it already (or was built bigger), varying reasons could have varying effects. Reasons could be pre dreadnoughts growing faster than OTL and breaking the 20k ton limit, or earlier semi dreadnoughts, or merchant ships getting larger, greater commerce, or just someone decided on a bigger size when built, different reasons would have different effects
  2. Germany decides it doesn't need to be able to move its battleships between the Baltic and North Sea through the Canal. Again exact reason why could have different effects. Could be Denmark is in alliance with Germany, could be Russia collapsed into revolution and no need for large Baltic force, could be Anglo-German alliance, these would of course see different responses
 
Around that time, the RN led the world in both technology and ship-building capability. As a result, their typical process went something like this:

1) come up with some new design that renders half your opponent's fleet obsolete
2) laugh as they panic and start rebuilding half their fleet
3) once they start to get their act together, use massive shipbuilding capacity to outbuild them
4) goto 1)

In this case you haven't mentioned the RN has been drinking lead paint, so I assume Dreadnought is still underway, just finished a little later. It's possible the British wouldn't be too bothered by this - Dreadnought still has turbines, which no other battleship has, so the technological edge is still theirs, and they can still outbuild Germany by a considerable margin. They might try to push forward the next iteration of 1), or find a way to demonstrate 3) even more blatantly, but as Hood and SsgtC say the basic situation has not changed.
 
A German Dreadnought would merely be an existing ship, their last pre-dread, built to DN standard rather than an 'extra' ship. There would be a kerfuffle in Britain, but they and Germany would still build ships at the same rate and Britain would take a couple of years to have more dreads than Germany and WW1 would be fought with Germany having 1 or 2 more dreads at the start than OTL.

But in the end Germany would still have a shockingly bad naval command, the Schlieffen plan would likely still fail to take Paris and lose the Race to the Sea and the Marine Korps Flandern still be starved of naval resources.
 
Around that time, the RN led the world in both technology and ship-building capability. As a result, their typical process went something like this:

1) come up with some new design that renders half your opponent's fleet obsolete
2) laugh as they panic and start rebuilding half their fleet
3) once they start to get their act together, use massive shipbuilding capacity to outbuild them
4) goto 1)

In this case you haven't mentioned the RN has been drinking lead paint, so I assume Dreadnought is still underway, just finished a little later. It's possible the British wouldn't be too bothered by this - Dreadnought still has turbines, which no other battleship has, so the technological edge is still theirs, and they can still outbuild Germany by a considerable margin. They might try to push forward the next iteration of 1), or find a way to demonstrate 3) even more blatantly, but as Hood and SsgtC say the basic situation has not changed.
I think there might still an overreaction.
Everyone in Britain loved thrir battleships. They wanted to build more of these monstrously expensive ships even tho Lloyd George was offering them much better social stuff etc, which ultimately lead to his famous People's Budget.
The Admiralty isn't going to be satisfied with something that's a little bit better than Nassau.
They'll want something that can crush it. I think the likes of the Orion may be the next generation for GB.
They'll want to blow Nassau out of the water.
 
What would the political and military responses be if in 1906, instead of HMS Dreadnought, the world's navies are obsoleted by an SMS Nassau analog?

Clearly there's much of the same scramble in the world's navies to get new competitive designs building so as not to be left behind. I also expect some heads to roll in Whitehall.

But beyond that, what's the political response?
OTL Dreadnought and the 3 Invincible class battlecruisers were ordered in the 1905-06 Navy Estimates.

Dreadnought
Laid Down 02/10/05
Launched 10/02/06
Completed 31/12/1906​

All 3 Invincibles were laid down in 1906, launched in 1907 and completed in 1908.

German's newest battleship was the pre-dreadnought Deutschland the name ship of their last class of pre-dreadnoughts. She was ordered in the German 1903-04 Navy Estimates, laid down in 1903, launched in 1904 and completed in August 1906.

Two battleships were ordered in that programme. The other was Lothringen the last of the Braunchweig class. My spreadsheet says she was laid down in 1902 (but that must be wrong if she wasn't ordered until 1903), launched in 1904 and completed in May 1906.

If the Germans order 2 Nassaus in 1903-04 instead of the pair of OTL pre-dreadnoughts then they are going to order a battle cruiser instead of the armoured cruiser ordered in that year IOTL. This was Roon, the second Yorck class armoured cruiser. She was laid down in 1903, launched in 1904 and completed on 21st November 1905. I doubt that Germany would be able to build a Von Der Tann in her place because AFAIK Germany couldn't make turbines that large so it would have to be built with reciprocating engines.

That would give Germany 6 extra Nassaus instead of the last 6 pre-dreadnoughts and 4 battle cruisers with reciprocating engines instead of Roon, Scharnhorst, Gneisenau and Blücher.

However, the British would simply build more dreadnoughts and battlecruisers to maintain their superiority.

OTL we had the Selbourne programme which was for 3 battleships and 4 armoured cruisers starting in 1903-04. However, that number was only built in 1903-04 and 1904-05. This was cut to one battleship (Dreadnought) and 3 armoured cruisers (which became the Invincible class) due to the heavy Russian losses in their war with Japan. This became the Cawdor Programme of 4 capital ships a year, but only 10 (7 dreadnoughts and 3 battle cruisers (including Australia and New Zealand)) were ordered in the next 3 financial years. However, in 1909-10 there was "We want eight. We won't wait."

So TTL we might see the Selbourne programme being maintained for a few years. Also if British Intelligence works out what the Germans are doing early enough the 2 Lord Nelson class pre-dreadnoughts and 3 Minotaur class armoured cruisers ordered in 1904-05 might be cancelled (or not even ordered in the first place) so that 2 Dreadnoughts and 3 Invincibles could be built in their place.
 
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Also Nassau wasn't a true Dreadnought, like the American South Carolina class battleships it had triple expansion engines rather than the more efficient steam turbines used on the Dreadnought.
 
I think there might still an overreaction.
Everyone in Britain loved thrir battleships. They wanted to build more of these monstrously expensive ships even tho Lloyd George was offering them much better social stuff etc, which ultimately lead to his famous People's Budget.
The Admiralty isn't going to be satisfied with something that's a little bit better than Nassau.
They'll want something that can crush it. I think the likes of the Orion may be the next generation for GB.
They'll want to blow Nassau out of the water.

So, what does the technology of 1905 allow, given Jackie Fisher and a blank cheque? :p
Can he jump up a gun calibre, or would he accelerate battlecruiser development, for a larger, faster Invincible?
 
So, what does the technology of 1905 allow, given Jackie Fisher and a blank cheque? :p
Can he jump up a gun calibre, or would he accelerate battlecruiser development, for a larger, faster Invincible?
Super firing turrets would be useful from the start for British BBs
 
Also Nassau wasn't a true Dreadnought, like the American South Carolina class battleships it had triple expansion engines rather than the more efficient steam turbines used on the Dreadnought.

True; but didn't the Germans use more efficient small tube boilers in their TE engines and the British use less efficient large tube boilers for their turbines, closing the apparent gap somewhat?
 
So, what does the technology of 1905 allow, given Jackie Fisher and a blank cheque? :p
Can he jump up a gun calibre, or would he accelerate battlecruiser development, for a larger, faster Invincible?

The Vanguards might actually get built to the X4 design rather than as half sisters to Dreadnought. Thus 22,500 nominal displacement intended to mean they can transport the same weight of guns and armour as Dreadnought at 25 knots though I suspect the speed would be a little optimistic cf the Queen Elizabeths.
 
OTL Dreadnought and the 3 Invincible class battlecruisers were ordered in the 1905-06 Navy Estimates.

Dreadnought
Laid Down 02/10/05
Launched 10/02/06
Completed 31/12/1906​

All 3 Invincibles were laid down in 1906, launched in 1907 and completed in 1908.

German's newest battleship was the pre-dreadnought Deutschland the name ship of their last class of pre-dreadnoughts. She was ordered in the German 1903-04 Navy Estimates, laid down in 1903, launched in 1904 and completed in August 1906.

Two battleships were ordered in that programme. The other was Lothringen the last of the Braunchweig class. My spreadsheet says she was laid down in 1902 (but that must be wrong if she wasn't ordered until 1903), launched in 1904 and completed in May 1906.

If the Germans order 2 Nassaus in 1903-04 instead of the pair of OTL pre-dreadnoughts then they are going to order a battle cruiser instead of the armoured cruiser ordered in that year IOTL. This was Roon, the second Yorck class armoured cruiser. She was laid down in 1903, launched in 1904 and completed on 21st November 1905. I doubt that Germany would be able to build a Von Der Tann in her place because AFAIK Germany couldn't make turbines that large so it would have to be built with reciprocating engines.

That would give Germany 6 extra Nassaus instead of the last 6 pre-dreadnoughts and 4 battle cruisers with reciprocating engines instead of Roon, Scharnhorst, Gneisenau and Blücher.

However, the British would simply build more dreadnoughts and battlecruisers to maintain their superiority.

OTL we had the Selbourne programme which was for 3 battleships and 4 armoured cruisers starting in 1903-04. However, that number was only built in 1903-04 and 1904-05. This was cut to one battleship (Dreadnought) and 3 armoured cruisers (which became the Invincible class) due to the heavy Russian losses in their war with Japan. This became the Cawdor Programme of 4 capital ships a year, but only 10 (7 dreadnoughts and 3 battle cruisers (including Australia and New Zealand)) were ordered in the next 3 financial years. However, in 1909-10 there was "We want eight. We won't wait."

So TTL we might see the Selbourne programme being maintained for a few years. Also if British Intelligence works out what the Germans are doing early enough the 2 Lord Nelson class pre-dreadnoughts and 3 Minotaur class armoured cruisers ordered in 1904-05 might be cancelled (or not even ordered in the first place) so that 2 Dreadnoughts and 3 Invincibles could be built in their place.
The last French pre-dreadnoughts was the turbine powered Danton class of 6 ships laid down 1907-08 and completed 1910-11. OTL the French gave serious consideration to cancelling the class completely and building dreadnoughts in their place. If Lothringen is built as a Nassau class dreadnought and still completed in May 1905 the extra 6 months might be enough to have the Danton class cancelled and 6 dreadnought (possible more Courbert class) built in their place.

It's also likely that Austria-Hungary would build a trio of dreadnoguhts in place of their last dreadnoughts the Radetzky class. These were laid down 1907-09 and completed 1910-11.
 
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