WI: Germany launched an offensive in Italy instead of on Western Front in spring 1918
If any of you liked my Polish-German war in the 20’s you may enjoy this.
I originally learned of this idea from reading a paper by Historian Hans Delbruck in which he said that it would have been a better idea to knock Italy out of the war with an offensive in spring 1918 instead of launching another offensive in the West. After reading more about this I have concurred with his assessment it probably would have been a better idea to launch an offensive in Italy in spring 1918. In the last battle in the Italian theater, the Battle of Caporetto, in October and November 1917, the Central Powers pushed Italian forces back 62 miles and killed, captured or wounded 300,000 Italian soldiers. Germany then withdrew its seven divisions from the region and redeployed them elsewhere. Italian forces in the battle had been pushed back all the way to the Piave River; at this point in the war Italy had taken a total of 600,000 casualties and moral was extremely low.
Here are some excerpts from Erwin Rommel’s book “Infantry Attacks” that exemplify this point
“With the feeling of being forced to act before the adversary decided to do something, I left the edge of the forest and, walking steadily forward, demanded, by calling and waving my handkerchief that the enemy surrender and lay down their weapons. The mass of men stared at me from the woods, and a retreat under enemy fire was impossible. I had the impression that I must not stand still or we were lost. I came within 150 yards of the enemy! Suddenly the mass began to move and, in the ensuing panic, swept its resisting officers along the downhill. Most of the Italian soldiers threw their weapons down and hundreds hurried to me. In an instant I was surrounded and hoisted on the Italians shoulders. “Evviva Germania!” sounded from a thousand throats. An Italian officer who hesitated to surrender was shot dead by his own troops. For the Italians on Mrzil peak the war was over. They shouted with joy.”
“As we swung around a sharp bend, the view to the left opened up. Before us-scarcely three hundred yards away- stood the 2d Regiment of the Salerno Brigade. It assembled and laid down its arms. Deeply moved, the regimental commander sat at the roadside, surrounded by his officers and wept with rage and shame over the insubordination of the soldiers of his once-proud regiment.”
In a period of twenty-eight hours Rommel’s forces captured 150 Italian officers and 9000 Italian soldiers, while only taking 6 dead and 30 wounded themselves.
If Germany even used just a fraction of the 74 divisions that took part in the Western Front spring offensive I think Italy would have been knock out of the war in spring 1918. Italy from my point of view was at its breaking point. Without doing this Austria-Hungry would be left to take the offensive alone and that lead to the disastrous Battle of Vittorio Veneto in October 1918, which ultimately lead to Austria-Hungry leaving the conflict. Another reason they should have done an offensive in Italy instead of a offensives on the Western front is that during the Spring Offensive Germany would take 400,000 casualties and more American troops are arriving every day.
Central Powers
Austria-Hungry: 61 divisions
Germany: around 7-20 divisions
Allies
Italy: 51 divisions
France: 3-6 divisions
Britain: 2-5 divisions
The offensives objective would be to break the Italian defensive position on the Piave River and advance in the direction of Venice. The Central Powers would use poison gas and infiltration tactics to help the initial break through. The complaint I have read about for launching the offensive is that the area, due to a poor rail network, could not logistically support and supply a huge force, especially if it was rapidly advancing.