WI: Germany doesn't launch operation typhoon

PlasmaTorch

Banned
We all know that the german attempt to seize Moscow in 1941 resulted in their first major defeat of world war 2, a loss that significantly weakened the 3rd reich and its war effort. Even before operation typhoon was launched, there were indications that it was infeasible. When they started marching on Moscow in october of 1941, the germans had been on the offensive for five months. By that point in time, the wehrmacht was tired and bruised, and were already at the culminating point. Moscow itself was simply beyond their effective limit of resupply.

Lets devise a POD (point of divergence) for the war between nazi germany and soviet russia. Its october 22nd, 1941: The battles of bryansk and vyazma have ended in victory for the germans, and the red army has been badly weakened. Instead of continuing with operation typhoon, however, the OKW decides that the logistical and weather challenges facing them are simply too much. They bring a halt to all general offensives, and order the wehrmacht to go on the defensive. This change of plans enables them to consolidate their gains, salvage their motor pool, and stock up on winter supplys. They will simply wait until the spring of 1942 for things to improve.


Heres a couple of pertinent questions:

Short term: If the germans avoid the battle of Moscow, how much better do things go for them during the winter of 1941?

Long term: If they manage to endure the winter without getting mauled, how does the situation in the eastern front change? Are the soviets at greater risk of collapse in 1942?

783px-Eastern_Front_1941-06_to_1941-12.png
 
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Of course the Germans fare better through the winter, both by not suffering further losses during their own final offensive, and during the later Soviet counteroffensive.
The Soviets spare troops when the Germans don't keep pushing, but lose them during their counteroffensive, which is much less successful than in OTL.
So, troops-wise and logistics-wise, the Germans come out ahead.

But the Soviets gain one all-important thing from this change: territory. In OTL, Fall Blau began from the areas of Kursk, Kharkov and Taganrog. IN TTL, the Germans first have to take these regions. OTL's Soviet spring attack towards Kharkov will serve as a spoiling attack. Fall Blau has less chances of success than in OTL. The Germans won't get as far as in OTL.

The Germans could try something else, of course. But a thrust from Orel to Moscow would be what the Soviets expect, an attack straight into the thickest defenses. Other possibilities, such as the destruction of the Kalinin Front's salient, would be feasible but wouldn't threaten the SU with utter defeat.
 

Deleted member 1487

Of course the Germans fare better through the winter, both by not suffering further losses during their own final offensive, and during the later Soviet counteroffensive.
The Soviets spare troops when the Germans don't keep pushing, but lose them during their counteroffensive, which is much less successful than in OTL.
So, troops-wise and logistics-wise, the Germans come out ahead.
Agreed

But the Soviets gain one all-important thing from this change: territory. In OTL, Fall Blau began from the areas of Kursk, Kharkov and Taganrog. IN TTL, the Germans first have to take these regions. OTL's Soviet spring attack towards Kharkov will serve as a spoiling attack. Fall Blau has less chances of success than in OTL. The Germans won't get as far as in OTL.
The advance in the south wasn't part of Operation Typhoon though, so unless OP says otherwise it is more likely than not Hitler keeps the advance their going, as he wanted to secure the resources of Ukraine and take Rostov for next year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Battle_of_Kharkov
Also the Battle of Kharkov was ongoing as of October 22nd, so it would continue until capture. Kursk maybe wouldn't be taken, but no great loss there, while Taganrog also fell pre-22nd of October. Not continuing on to Rostov would be a great boon to the Germans considering the losses in men and equipment they took for that failed operation. Case Blue would actually be much more likely to succeed given the POD.

The Germans could try something else, of course. But a thrust from Orel to Moscow would be what the Soviets expect, an attack straight into the thickest defenses. Other possibilities, such as the destruction of the Kalinin Front's salient, would be feasible but wouldn't threaten the SU with utter defeat.
Why when they would be much strong ITTL than IOTL as of June 1942?
 
It would just delay the inevitable, stopping the advance for the winter gives the Soviets time.Time is not on Germany's side.
 

Deleted member 1487

It would just delay the inevitable, stopping the advance for the winter gives the Soviets time.Time is not on Germany's side.
Normally sure, but the problem is Stalin did not understand the realities of combat and would toss away his reserves, as he had a proven record of doing, going so far as to attack in early November in the mud himself against Zhukov's advice, killing off off heaps of his own men that let the Germans achieve breakthroughs in mid-November they otherwise would not have had Stalin kept on the defensive. We know with hindsight that continuing to attack in November was worse than stopping for the winter, so the assumption OP is making is that the weather convinces Hitler that it is too late and things are going long no matter what.
 

PlasmaTorch

Banned
The advance in the south wasn't part of Operation Typhoon though, so unless OP says otherwise it is more likely than not Hitler keeps the advance their going, as he wanted to secure the resources of Ukraine and take Rostov for next year.

In your opinion, whats the most rational strategy for the germans to pursue when spring of 1942 rolls around? Would they go for Moscow and attempt to decapitate the USSR, or would they go for Stalingrad and Grozny? Is it possible that the soviet union could collapse by the end of the year?

Why when they would be much strong ITTL than IOTL as of June 1942?

True. The germans would be just as mobile as they were in 1941, since they have a whole bunch of motor vehicles that weren't lost in the drive to Moscow.

It would just delay the inevitable, stopping the advance for the winter gives the Soviets time.Time is not on Germany's side.

Well, it was never really inevitable the nazis would lose to the soviets. They wrought terrible damage in the first few months of barbarossa, a level of destruction that threatened the USSRs very existence. But germany was smaller in terms of landmass and population, and she had to fight two other giant empires as well (britain and america). One commenter summarised the course of WW2 like so:

Likely german defeat: After Moscow
Highly likely german defeat: After Stalingrad
Certain german defeat: After Kursk
 
The advance in the south wasn't part of Operation Typhoon though, so unless OP says otherwise it is more likely than not Hitler keeps the advance their going, as he wanted to secure the resources of Ukraine and take Rostov for next year.

The OP says stop all general offensives on October 22. Kharkov fell three days later, Kursk not earlier than November 3. Rostov is likewise not even approached by the Germans (but the Soviets can still launch a counterattack in this area in November).

Note, by the way, that the date provided by the OP, October 22, is at odds with the thread title - Taifun began on October 2, AFAIR.
 

Deleted member 1487

The OP says stop all general offensives on October 22. Kharkov fell three days later, Kursk not earlier than November 3. Rostov is likewise not even approached by the Germans (but the Soviets can still launch a counterattack in this area in November).

Note, by the way, that the date provided by the OP, October 22, is at odds with the thread title - Taifun began on October 2, AFAIR.
Gotcha, still the Kharkov fight was ongoing, so that would continue to culmination, but yes Rostov wouldn't be reached and AG-South would be in a far better position. Kursk is no big deal other than as a road junction. I think in terms of the date, OP is referring to the end as the point where the mud became an insurmountable problem, which led to it being paused until the ground firmed up again in mid-November and it was relaunched. So OP is basically saying let the mud be the end of it for the year.

In your opinion, whats the most rational strategy for the germans to pursue when spring of 1942 rolls around? Would they go for Moscow and attempt to decapitate the USSR, or would they go for Stalingrad and Grozny? Is it possible that the soviet union could collapse by the end of the year?
Case Blue. Moscow was too well defended. I would say that going south for the oil was a necessity and had the best chance to strangle the USSR and push it over the edge in 1942 provided they were smarter in execution of the operation. Attacking Sevastopol was unnecessary IMHO as it would have fallen as the naval base it was supplied from along the Black Sea Coast, Novorossiysk fell. A Russian poster on another forum once told me that the water supply was nearly out due to the natural source being fouled for some reason, so would have fallen in about a month anyway. Beyond that what is going on with the Leningrad situation? On October 22nd 1941 AG-North was in the midst of an offensive against Tikhvin, does that continue to OTL conclusion or is it ordered to pull back on that date? Holding it's ground where it was was pointless, as it was short of the objective and strung out. Depending one what was going on there, I would say that Operation Nordlicht against Leningrad instead of Operation Störfang against Sevastopol was the better idea pre-Case Blue. Case Blue has to happen due to the resource/oil issue that Hitler was obsessed with, so there is no chance so long as Hitler was alive of another Moscow attack in 1942. It is nearly impossible to get the USSR to collapse by the end of 1942 then, but in 1943 it is possible.

True. The germans would be just as mobile as they were in 1941, since they have a whole bunch of motor vehicles that weren't lost in the drive to Moscow.
When in 1941? They wouldn't be as mobile as they were in June, while by late October they weren't really that mobile and the weather would still destroy a lot of vehicles and trains as per OTL, as the degree of cold and lack of heated storage facilities was unknown. The Germans were just not experienced in that level of cold weather operation.
 
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PlasmaTorch

Banned
Gotcha, still the Kharkov fight was ongoing, so that would continue to culmination, but yes Rostov wouldn't be reached and AG-South would be in a far better position. Kursk is no big deal other than as a road junction. I think in terms of the date, OP is referring to the end as the point where the mud became an insurmountable problem, which led to it being paused until the ground firmed up again in mid-November and it was relaunched. So OP is basically saying let the mud be the end of it for the year.

Yeah, thats pretty much what I had in mind.

Case Blue. Moscow was too well defended. I would say that going south for the oil was a necessity and had the best chance to strangle the USSR and push it over the edge in 1942 provided they were smarter in execution of the operation. Attacking Sevastopol was unnecessary IMHO as it would have fallen as the naval base it was supplied from along the Black Sea Coast, Novorossiysk fell. A Russian poster on another forum once told me that the water supply was nearly out due to the natural source being fouled for some reason, so would have fallen in about a month anyway.

Good point. I believe case blue has a greater chance of success than in OTL. If they avoid getting bogged down at Sevastopol, they should be able to launch case blue some weeks earlier. But since their starting lines are different, the germans will need to capture Kursk first. Do you think there would be a major battle there?

Beyond that what is going on with the Leningrad situation? On October 22nd 1941 AG-North was in the midst of an offensive against Tikhvin, does that continue to OTL conclusion or is it ordered to pull back on that date? Holding it's ground where it was was pointless, as it was short of the objective and strung out. Depending one what was going on there, I would say that Operation Nordlicht against Leningrad instead of Operation Störfang against Sevastopol was the better idea pre-Case Blue. Case Blue has to happen due to the resource/oil issue that Hitler was obsessed with, so there is no chance so long as Hitler was alive of another Moscow attack in 1942. It is nearly impossible to get the USSR to collapse by the end of 1942 then, but in 1943 it is possible.

With the siege of Leningrad, I figure it would go on pretty much the same, maybe with an effort to sever the road of life. An actual attempt to seize Leningrad (as in operation nodlicht) would be feasible as soon as the winter ends.

When in 1941? They wouldn't be as mobile as they were in June, while by late October they weren't really that mobile and the weather would still destroy a lot of vehicles and trains as per OTL, as the degree of cold and lack of heated storage facilities was unknown. The Germans were just not experienced in that level of cold weather operation.

Vehicle maintenance would be easier on the defensive, as the vehicles are spending more time stationary (thus reducing wear and tear).
 
...Rostov wouldn't be reached and AG-South would be in a far better position. Kursk is no big deal other than as a road junction.

Well, maybe that's exactly why it's a nice staging area from which to launch your spring offensive?

If you aren't already occupying it, you must stage farther back, and, predictably, you won't be able to go as far as OTL, because you'll have to occupy Kursk, and all the areas you don't occupy, first. Or you may launch the offensive from a narrower frontage - a worse idea.

All in all, I wouldn't say HGS is in a better position to launch Fall Blau. To hold its ground, yes, but the Germans aren't going to win with that.
 
Germany might spare itself considerable losses, particularly due to overstretched logistics, but the problem is that it leaves a very important sector of Soviet industry undisrupted. The Soviets will get a lot more breathing room to reorganize militarily and industrially, and that will negate at least some of the bonus Germany gets by avoiding the crackback from Typhoon
 
German forces far considerably better against the Soviet counter offensive in December. Stalin attempts to deploy more of it's 58 division reserve against the German defenders but calls off the offensive from heavy casualties. Soviet Forces are depleted by the time spring arrives. The first Panzer IV Ausf F.2s arrive in addition to deliveries of mechanized equipment. General Oberst Heinz Guderian's 2nd Panzer Army successfully punctures Soviet lines north of Tula and the German fourth army cross the Oka river. Konev is sacked and Zhukov engages in another counter offensive that fails further depleting his forces. The reasons the Soviets cannot gain any headway is a lack of favourable weather (Springtime/Summer 1942) wasn't idea and they lacked the airpower, numbers or damaged snow bitten Germans to push back. German morale is still high because so far Operation Barbrossa hasn't faced a major setback.

The Germans launch a major operation to capture Moscow after amassing Luftwaffe assets, additional troops, supplies and conducting reconnaissance. Soviet defences are punctured or overrun at several points and the encirclement of Moscow complete when the 2nd Panzer Army meets Model's Ninth. Moscow is placed under siege and after 4 months of urban warfare falls to the Germans. STAVKA is disorganized by the loss of the key communication and logistic point. Hitler is photographed touring the bombed out husk of the Kremlin before the Pioneers demolish it. The Third Reich's banners fly high over the ruined city. Atrocities are rumored to be common in parts of the city where SS units entered. A potential power struggle among Soviet leadership and high command begins to develop.
 
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