WI: Germany does not support Austria-Hungary in WWI?

[mial42]

Not necessarily, I would like to know what happens if Germany avoids going to war because of a Serbian terrorist.

This is basically a no-WW1 scenario then. A-H won't fight Russia without Germany's backing, so you'd get an acceptance of the Serbian response. The July Crisis becomes one more in a long list of war scares.

What the world looks like in the medium or long terms is anyone's guess; no OTL WW1 means an unrecognizable 20th century.

A scenario if you will. France fund an assasination attempt on the Kaiser. The French fund terrorists in Alsace. The Russians rile the poles up against Germans and give weapons and funding. What can Germany do except sit down and take it. If France wants war there’s nothing easier than convincing a few Frenchmen to be willing or unwilling martyrs for the cause and have France step in to protect Frenchmen in occupied territories by demanding Alsace loraine.

Care to provide any examples of the French government of the time actually doing anything analogous to this? Funding terrorism and assassinating foreign heads of state is not as simple as you're making it out to be, and I would question whether or not the French state actually has the organizational capability to do that. Likewise, Russia "riling up the Poles" is extremely unlikely, considering where most of those Poles live.

Granted, I don't think the scenario of Germany carving up A-H in 1914 is remotely plausible since the Dual Alliance was quite strong and the German elite feared being alone in Europe without A-H.

 

[bguy]

This is basically a no-WW1 scenario then. A-H won't fight Russia without Germany's backing, so you'd get an acceptance of the Serbian response. The July Crisis becomes one more in a long list of war scares.

Agreed.

How much of a prestige boost does the Tsar get domestically from Russia having successfully forced Austria to back down?

Granted, I don't think the scenario of Germany carving up A-H in 1914 is remotely plausible since the Dual Alliance was quite strong and the German elite feared being alone in Europe without A-H.

Not to mention that the Prussian nobility that dominated the German Empire at the time really don't want another major Catholic state brought within the German Empire. (The Austrians when added to the other southern German states already within the German Empire would mean a Catholic block within the empire powerful enough to seriously jeopardize Prussian control over the empire.)

 

[Vabasion]

And France doing that will re-initiate the Anglo-French rivalry.

And waging war over Alsace Lorraine will cost France millions and ruin it as a great power. France didn't care. The nationalist education everyone underwent at the time ensured it.

This is basically a no-WW1 scenario then. A-H won't fight Russia without Germany's backing, so you'd get an acceptance of the Serbian response. The July Crisis becomes one more in a long list of war scares.

What the world looks like in the medium or long terms is anyone's guess; no OTL WW1 means an unrecognizable 20th century.

Care to provide any examples of the French government of the time actually doing anything analogous to this? Funding terrorism and assassinating foreign heads of state is not as simple as you're making it out to be, and I would question whether or not the French state actually has the organizational capability to do that. Likewise, Russia "riling up the Poles" is extremely unlikely, considering where most of those Poles live.

Granted, I don't think the scenario of Germany carving up A-H in 1914 is remotely plausible since the Dual Alliance was quite strong and the German elite feared being alone in Europe without A-H.

How could they do it when they're not in similar position of overwhelming power over Germany? Reason wasn't the greatest attribute of pre WW1 European powers. Germans riled up the communists and caused revolution in Russia, then suffered one at home just a bit later.

 

[mial42]

How could they do it when they're not in similar position of overwhelming power over Germany?

Let me put it more precisely: Is there any instance of Third Republic France assassinating a head of state or funding terrorists in any other peer country (by peer I don't necessarily mean Great Power. I mean viewed as "civilized," which mostly means Europe, the US, and maybe Japan if you squint)? This is not a rhetorical gotcha; I'm not an expert on Third Republic foreign policy. If there it is yes, I'd like to know it. If not, then that suggests that the Third Republic either can't or won't do that sort of thing, much like the US doesn't go around threatening Japan with gunboats over trade disputes in the 21st century.

Reason wasn't the greatest attribute of pre WW1 European powers. Germans riled up the communists and caused revolution in Russia, then suffered one at home just a bit later.

1) Germany didn't cause the February revolution in Russia except indirectly through fighting WW1. Germany only very indirectly caused the October revolution by sending Lenin home in a sealed train, and he was very much an autonomous agent (not controlled by Germany). They didn't "rile up" the communists; the war and the failures of the Tsardom did.
2) If you'll note, that was during WW1, ie, when everyone involved was absolutely desperate for some kind of edge. If Russia is in a desperate war with Germany, they might try working with Polish nationalists, as Germany did during WW1 OTL (and I believe the Tsardom promised Polish autonomy, but I might be misremembering). But this is asking the Russians to shoot themselves in the foot over Alsace-Lorraine.
3) The Russians have been dealing with Polish nationalism for decades at this point. They're not funding and arming Polish nationalists knowing full well that the main target of Polish nationalism is Russia. This would be like the Spaniards funding Catalan nationalists or A-H funding Italian nationalists to undermine France. Or the Ottomans funding Armenian nationalists to undermine Russia.

 

[Mikey]

And France doing that will re-initiate the Anglo-French rivalry.

Yeah, that's a scenario that probably would lead to Britain intervening on the same side as Germany; France is essentially a rogue state at this point.

 

[Evil Crusader]

A scenario if you will. France fund an assasination attempt on the Kaiser. The French fund terrorists in Alsace. The Russians rile the poles up against Germans and give weapons and funding. What can Germany do except sit down and take it. If France wants war there’s nothing easier than convincing a few Frenchmen to be willing or unwilling martyrs for the cause and have France step in to protect Frenchmen in occupied territories by demanding Alsace loraine.

When the attack happens, Germany will - unlike A-H - quickly carry the outrage and either demand an humiliating reparation or skip to a punitive attack. No matter what realpolitik says, Nicholas won't fight with those who tried to kill his beloved cousin - a fellow Emperor. And that is if such a behavior by France would be tolerated/happen at all (doubt).
It is presented as an attack on Germany, Italy jumps in with her usual bluster, the UK just ensures the resulting peace doesn't make Germany too strong.
If Sarajevo happens before or in the same timeframe, then Austria is likelier to go ahead alone and/or assume German support, making Serbian prospects much darker.

 

[David Flin]

This is basically a no-WW1 scenario then. A-H won't fight Russia without Germany's backing, so you'd get an acceptance of the Serbian response. The July Crisis becomes one more in a long list of war scares.

What the world looks like in the medium or long terms is anyone's guess; no OTL WW1 means an unrecognizable 20th century.

Well, that presupposes that there won't be another crisis along in a couple of years that does spiral out of control. Plenty of flash-points to choose from.

It's not like the world hadn't become quite experienced in near-misses for the start of WWI (with possible different line-ups depending on where and when the flash-point took place).

It's likely that side-stepping this crisis would mean we would be referring to the Great War of 1919-1924. Or something.

 

[kham_coc]

It's likely that side-stepping this crisis would mean we would be referring to the Great War of 1919-1924. Or something.

Yes and no, because France is less and less able to fight it as time goes on - and the UK is liable to be less and less Germany Phobic as Russia strengthens.

 

[David Flin]

As Russia strengthens, line ups may well alter. Mind you, with the German diplomatic brilliance for which they were noted, it will find a way to piss off Britain. Probably through continuance of building up the HSF. Or maybe something else.

France Russia may become Russia France. The Ottoman Russia Austria-Hungary dance in the Balkans will continue.

Russia Japan Britain in the Pacific, with added USA.

Sooner or later, some crisis will erupt that doesn't get contained. The lineup could well be different, depending on what the trigger is and how things have developed.

 

[Byzantophile with pride]

Austria would back down from attacking Serbia, they know they couldn't beat the Russians, much less the French if they joined.
Germany would become isolated, I find it likely that France and Russia would be the aggressors sometime later than IRL.
The Uk might interfere against France if the Germans prove unable to handle both Russians and French without Austrian support, and I think Italy would be joining Germany, seeing as they were quite close, and they wouldn't be needing to join UK and France like they did IRL since the Austrians weren't against them.
My prediction, Russia signs a white peace from the war earlier than IRL, and the Soviets are stopped, France gets humiliated, losing colonies and paying heavy reparations.
Ottomans and Austria collapse, the latter into serious brutal civil wars, and the former by being torn asunder by European powers.
No Armenian genocide, the Turks wouldn't be as desperately cruel to minorities seeing as they wouldn't be in a war with terrible combat like the Caucasian and Egyptian front.
WWII would probably be the Russians and French trying to get revenge on Germany for lost territories in WWI, not sure who would be an ally to who there.
The interwar would be interesting, France would be furious and attempting to assert their power anywhere they could, Russia would become less monarchist and push that the poorly-lead armies of the Tsar cost Russia its territories, and the USA, not having joined the war, would have a less entangled economy with the world, would cause a less absurd crash of the economy worldwide.
I don't know for sure what would happen after all this, though a near repeat of the first world war would be likely.

 

[mial42]

Well, that presupposes that there won't be another crisis along in a couple of years that does spiral out of control. Plenty of flash-points to choose from.

It's not like the world hadn't become quite experienced in near-misses for the start of WWI (with possible different line-ups depending on where and when the flash-point took place).

It's likely that side-stepping this crisis would mean we would be referring to the Great War of 1919-1924. Or something.

Oh, I agree. When I wrote, "no WW1" I meant "no OTL WW1." An alt-WW1 is entirely probably, but the world would still look completely different.

 

[Aphrodite]

Germany would become a Russian protectorate. It would certainly be better than what happened.

A middle ground would be to tell the Austrians to start being realistic in their foreign policy. They just aren't strong enough to fight the Russians, Serbs, Romanians and the Italians.

They need to reconcile with someone. See if the Tsar will trade Serbia and Albania for Romania and Bulgaria.

If that doesn't work, give the Italians and Romanians whatever they want.

 

[Mikey]

Germany would become a Russian protectorate. It would certainly be better than what happened.

In which scenario here?

 

[M79]

*Germany doesn't give Austria-Hungary a blank check but does offer support and a friend in the crisis

*Austria-Hungary sends demands and as OTL all but one are met

*Prince Henry of Prussia suggests using international council to resolve dispute; LoN born

*Then came the Yankee Flu...

 

[NoMommsen]

...Not to mention that the Prussian nobility that dominated the German Empire at the time really don't want another major Catholic state brought within the German Empire. (The Austrians when added to the other southern German states already within the German Empire would mean a Catholic block within the empire powerful enough to seriously jeopardize Prussian control over the empire.)

... about this "blacks"-scare or this often reffered to alleged catholicism/prussianism antithesis ... let me cite myself

...
In short :
From 1900 onwards anti-catholicism had NO political effect AT ALL.

Long(er) :
It seems often forgotten here around (i.e. also in discussing possible affiliation of parts of Austria to Germany) that the "Kulturkampf" started to end with the first Anti-Socialist Laws by Bismarck 1878 and actually ended in 1882 with diplomatic relations between Germany, Prussia and the Vatikan resumed. 1887 the pope Leo XIII even declared publically the "Kulturkampf" as ended.

At least from the midth 1890ies there WEREN'T any such anti-catholic animosities to speak of.
... not more animosities as there might be between Welsh and Glaswegians, Friesians and Badenians, East-Prussians and Bavarians ... i.e.

The sometimes opposition of the (mainly catholic coined) Zentrum party was that of one of many political parties, as i.e. the different conservative parties as well.
The Zentrum gained historically its position due to the attempted oppression working as "well" - or rather advertising - as the later Anti-Socialist-Laws only helping the SPD to rise to its allembracing 'subculture' and political weight for which the catholic Zentrums parts was shining paragon.

What should have beenand should be taken as an example all around the times and places that oppression DOES NOT WORK and only helps the oppressed opponent.

 

[Niegel]

... about this "blacks"-scare or this often reffered to alleged catholicism/prussianism antithesis ... let me cite myself

Interesting.

Does this mean that the division of Austria-Hungary between Germany, Italy and Russia would be possible? If so, how would subsequent events unfold?

However, I am more interested in the consequences of the normal option where Austria-Hungary refrains from going to war because Germany refuses to get involved in a potentially absurd war conflict.