WI: Germany does not breakthrough Ardennes in 1940

RousseauX

Donor
The Fall of France is one of the great accidents of history, the Germans lost their original war plan for invading France in an airplane crash. The Germans thought the French probably captured the plan and invalidated it. This caused the Germans to change their plan to the infamous "sickle cut" which attacked perfectly into the weak French flank and encircled the Anglo-Franco force in Belgium. This precipitated a political collapse in the French government which caused an early surrender.

What if that plane crash never happened? The original German plan actually attacked into the teeth of French deployment and called for heavy usage of artillery to bludgeon its way past French defenses. The British and French in 1940 actually had an economic advantage over Germany in production and access to raw materials. Meanwhile, Hitler is heavily dependent on his pact with Stalin to keep his armies and economy supplied. What if you had something closer to a war of attrition in Belgium and northern France? Are UK and France able to defeat Germany on its own?
 
The Germans are in deep trouble. It's always possible that they still break through but its not very likely. The original plan minimises the impact of the rather poor French leadership and instead of hitting a lightly held sector protected by second rate troops they would be attacking the best French units and sacrificing their mobility. Add in the limited German logistics and yes the UK and France can defeat the Germans.
 
Have you read The Blunted Sickle yet?

The difference is that Sickle Cut still goes ahead in Blunted Sickle albeit with different results, here it never goes ahead in the first place.

If the Germans had thrown everything into another Schlieffen-esque plan you're looking at a bit of a toss-up for either side. One thing that's a given is that France almost certainly doesn't fall in 1940 in this scenario, although it may get hit so badly as to make it a likely outcome in 1941. Overall a net positive for the Allies either way.
 
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