Yes, this is in the right forum 
Many of us are intrigued by the idea that in the place where there is France and Germany IOTL, there could exists three big political entities.
(Note: "Big" is used here in sense where it does not yet apply to OTL's Netherlands.)
There would have been four excellent opportunities to achieve this:
The first two options enjoy high populariy in this forum.
About the third one, I've seen one fine TL, but not even a discussion about the fourth - I suppose we just know too little about the circumstances to inspire our fantasy here.
But now guess what? - I found a new one.
Second half of the 12th century.
Frederic I. of Hohenstaufen, aka Barbarossa, was elected Holy Roman Emperor in 1152 primarily because he was a relatively weak prince. However, it turned out that he managed to accrue a lot of power in his hands, far beyond what his predecessors had achieved.
In particular, he succeeded in reviving Imperial authority in regions which at his enthronement were merely nominally part of the HRE: Burgundy and the wealthy Northern Italy.
His successful power politics has inspired many people within and outside of this forum to imagine a sustained powerful Staufen rule. There are, however, number of reasons that the regime in Staufen style did not last:
From my point of view, the last point is the least important one, though it is emphasized most when trying to engineer alternate outcomes.
But anyway, I don't envisage the typical Staufen super-Empire; I'm going to follow a complete different approach.
Consider the Welfs, and particularly their current head of family, Henry the Lion. Barbarossa maneuvered between limiting his power, and still saturating him to some degree. Eventually, his attempts didn't prove successful; the dynastic rivalry would survive the two opponents for at least one century.
But if we look closer, we will see that in the first time of his reign, Barbarossa entertained quite a good relationship with Henry. As a striking symbol of it, Henry is said to have saved Barbarossa's life in one of their Italian campaigns.
Their good understanding was also based on the following "division of labour":
Henry was given plenty of rope back home in Germany, in particular, relative to the smaller princes and noblemen. This gave Barbarossa the freedom to take care of the more "Imperial" duties. And as far as territory is concerned, this refers particularly to Italy and Burgundy.
So here's the PoD: Suppose that Barbarossa continues to give more power when Henry gets ever more ambitious. This will eventually rule out Imperial influence on Welfish lands, but at the same time might create a stable system where the Emperor can keep his realms under control.
It wouldn't be the first time that the personal relationship of people would freeze into a political structure which endures for centuries!
To become a bit more concrete here, I imagine that the Welfs will rule their own state, while still nominally part of the HRE. This state would primarily cosist of:
So what remains for the Emperor?
He will retain contol at least over
The ecclesiastic possessions would be under nominal Imperial control, but chances to interfere would still be smaller than with other principalities.
I think even if the Emperor has lost a huge territory, this might very much stabilize his reign, and that of his successors.
Now I can see better chances for more central power to the throne,
and perhaps even inheritance of the crown.
Some further thoughts:
The cities of Frankfurt and Nuremberg will prosper even more than they did IOTL at this time; functioning basically a big duty-free shops between the two realms.
Perhaps the old distinction between "feud" and "possession", which was fading exactly then, may be continued under this scenario.
...
The funny thing, of course is that if the Plantagenets are struggling against the Capetians at the same time. So there is even a chance for four big countries in this part of Europe ...
What do you think?
I'm eager to learn about your ideas!
Many of us are intrigued by the idea that in the place where there is France and Germany IOTL, there could exists three big political entities.
(Note: "Big" is used here in sense where it does not yet apply to OTL's Netherlands.)
There would have been four excellent opportunities to achieve this:
- an enduring Kingdom of Burgundy, established in the 15th century;
- the Angevin Empire split off from France at the end of the 12th century;
- enduring Lotharingia in the 9th century;
- enduring Burgundy (the actual one, i.e. Bourgogne + Provence) as established end of 7th century.
The first two options enjoy high populariy in this forum.
About the third one, I've seen one fine TL, but not even a discussion about the fourth - I suppose we just know too little about the circumstances to inspire our fantasy here.
But now guess what? - I found a new one.
Second half of the 12th century.
Frederic I. of Hohenstaufen, aka Barbarossa, was elected Holy Roman Emperor in 1152 primarily because he was a relatively weak prince. However, it turned out that he managed to accrue a lot of power in his hands, far beyond what his predecessors had achieved.
In particular, he succeeded in reviving Imperial authority in regions which at his enthronement were merely nominally part of the HRE: Burgundy and the wealthy Northern Italy.
His successful power politics has inspired many people within and outside of this forum to imagine a sustained powerful Staufen rule. There are, however, number of reasons that the regime in Staufen style did not last:
- The Staufen family hardly reproduced as extensively as dynastic continuation would have required.
- Barbarossa bought many princes' support by granting them privileges. As such privileges were legally binding for eternity, he bought temporary support at his successors' expense.
- He got on a completely wrong track in trying to exert control over the Holy See.
- By a row of wrong decisions, he made new enemies, including the Welf dynasty in Saxony.
From my point of view, the last point is the least important one, though it is emphasized most when trying to engineer alternate outcomes.
But anyway, I don't envisage the typical Staufen super-Empire; I'm going to follow a complete different approach.
Consider the Welfs, and particularly their current head of family, Henry the Lion. Barbarossa maneuvered between limiting his power, and still saturating him to some degree. Eventually, his attempts didn't prove successful; the dynastic rivalry would survive the two opponents for at least one century.
But if we look closer, we will see that in the first time of his reign, Barbarossa entertained quite a good relationship with Henry. As a striking symbol of it, Henry is said to have saved Barbarossa's life in one of their Italian campaigns.
Their good understanding was also based on the following "division of labour":
Henry was given plenty of rope back home in Germany, in particular, relative to the smaller princes and noblemen. This gave Barbarossa the freedom to take care of the more "Imperial" duties. And as far as territory is concerned, this refers particularly to Italy and Burgundy.
So here's the PoD: Suppose that Barbarossa continues to give more power when Henry gets ever more ambitious. This will eventually rule out Imperial influence on Welfish lands, but at the same time might create a stable system where the Emperor can keep his realms under control.
It wouldn't be the first time that the personal relationship of people would freeze into a political structure which endures for centuries!
To become a bit more concrete here, I imagine that the Welfs will rule their own state, while still nominally part of the HRE. This state would primarily cosist of:
- Saxony (i.e. most of Northern Germany),
- Bavaria, potentially still including Austria and Styria,
- Wendish territories in the East, as far as they are conquered and/or integrated,
- smaller territories around these, which will not be able to resist Welfish pressure.
So what remains for the Emperor?
He will retain contol at least over
- Swabia, his home principality,
- territories along the Rhine, parts of which were already before earmarked as Imperial inheritance, and including dominance of the Palatinate,
- Italy, his primary focus,
- Burgundy, which Barbarossa won through marriage.
The ecclesiastic possessions would be under nominal Imperial control, but chances to interfere would still be smaller than with other principalities.
I think even if the Emperor has lost a huge territory, this might very much stabilize his reign, and that of his successors.
Now I can see better chances for more central power to the throne,
and perhaps even inheritance of the crown.
Some further thoughts:
The cities of Frankfurt and Nuremberg will prosper even more than they did IOTL at this time; functioning basically a big duty-free shops between the two realms.
Perhaps the old distinction between "feud" and "possession", which was fading exactly then, may be continued under this scenario.
...
The funny thing, of course is that if the Plantagenets are struggling against the Capetians at the same time. So there is even a chance for four big countries in this part of Europe ...
What do you think?
I'm eager to learn about your ideas!