I understand that it fell because of opposed Austrian and Russian interests in the Balkans. I just cannot understant why the Germans sided then with the Austrians, other than ethnic affinity.
I mean supporting Pan-Slavism would seem remarkably hypocritical for Germany given how they've got their own Polish regions.
Italy will undoubtedly join the side of Germany and Russia, as she would be able to gain territory from both Austria-Hungary and France afterwards. Which side the Ottoman Empire was on is a much more difficult question. Historically, there had always been an enmity with Russia, and there had been enough wars between them; nevertheless, the bigger threat for the Ottomans was the growing British presence in the region, and reducing this threat might have been a top priority. So if Britain actually participated in the war, the Ottomans would likely join the German-Russian-Italian coalition; if Britain stays neutral, the Ottomans would either stay neutral themselves or join the French-Austrohungarian coalition.The real question is about the Ottoman Empire and Italy.
And if Britain stays neutral, then Austria and France are royally fucked regardless of whether the ottomans join them or not.
Italy will undoubtedly join the side of Germany and Russia, as she would be able to gain territory from both Austria-Hungary and France afterwards. Which side the Ottoman Empire was on is a much more difficult question. Historically, there had always been an enmity with Russia, and there had been enough wars between them; nevertheless, the bigger threat for the Ottomans was the growing British presence in the region, and reducing this threat might have been a top priority. So if Britain actually participated in the war, the Ottomans would likely join the German-Russian-Italian coalition; if Britain stays neutral, the Ottomans would either stay neutral themselves or join the French-Austrohungarian coalition.
Germany can't help because Austria Hungary is in the way.
World War One would still happen. Maybe even because of the same cause, as this won't butterfly all of the Serbian Black Hand members away. The real question is about the Ottoman Empire and Italy. It depends on which side they join. Of course, Russia is now going to be industrializing much faster with an ally on their borders being the greatest power on earth. Austro-Hungary would now be surrounded on three sides, maybe four if Italy joins Germany.
Well, except it seems Austria has things that both the Russians and the Germans want (Slavs and Germans, respectively) and things the Germans and Russians don't want (Slavs and Germans, respectively)...
Granted, breaking up Austria et al the way the powers broke up Poland removes the third party, potential ally, possible buffer that Austria provides, but in the scheme of great power politics?
Seems like carving up Austria would have been an "eastern question" that actually, in a complete realpolitik manner, would have provided dividends for both the Germans and Russians that carving up the Turks was less likely to yield...
Based on (more or less) the dominant ethnicities and languages, the Germans end up with Cisleithenia and the northern Adriatic (maybe they spin Dalmatia off to the Italians?), the Russians end up with their desired slavic states in the Balkans, down to and including Bulgaria, and the Hungarians and Serbians act as buffer states.
It's not perfect, but it seems to provide a win-win situation for the two great powers in the east and at least some agency for the smaller Balkan nations.
Best,
And if Britain stays neutral, then Austria and France are royally fucked regardless of whether the ottomans join them or not.
Italy can't oppose britain. 90% of their coal comes from Britain. Germany can't help because Austria Hungary is in the way.
Germany cannot choose Russia over Austria because if Germany does this Austria comes to terms with Russia and the three emperors league is revived. Austria can oppose one of them with the help of the other but not both. Austrians know this and they are not stupid
blame the german conservatives, the junkers, they wanted a prussian protestant germany, absorbing austria with potentially 20 million catholics? good heaven, NO!!!
they could have made a deal with the italians, hungarians and russians to carve it up back in the 1840s, austrian nationalists wouldnt have really minded that but great britain and france might have objected but to be fair their influence on the outcome of such a deal goes towards 0.
So why did attempts to form an alliance between the three fail? Sure, Russia and Austria-Hungary had conflicting aims, but if A-H was as desperate as you say, then Russia could have pressed A-H to give Russia free hands on the Balkans.
Wilhelm II. didn't like Russia and made a reaprochment impossible. If Germany chooses Austria and backs their claims Russia can't force Austria to anything. Franz Ferdinand wanted to revive the three-emperors league if Russia and Germany ally against Austria, Austria is sourrunded by enemies how is Austria suppposed to defend itself? This is why Germany-Austria and Russia-Austria are possible but Germany-Russia not.