WI: Germany and A-H get involved in the Russian Revolution of 1905

Mario · Nov 13, 2020

Let's consider a scenario where the Russian Revolution of 1905 goes out of control and the Russian monarchy is more seriously challenged, leading to the point of losing control over certain regions of the Russian Empire.

The German Empire (who by 1905 still had good relations with the Tsar) might use the excuse of both ensuring the safety of their common borders and supporting the Tsar in order to intervene in Russia, mostly in Poland and the Baltic area. Austria-Hungary might also follow.

I don't know if this scenario could trigger an anticipated WWI as long as this make no much sense for UK and France to intervene here under such circumstances. France however should be concerned after some eventual German/Austrian expansionism to the East which could strengthen both Empires even more. Or, in the other hand, France may see a 'White' (Bolshevism was not strong enough yet) Revolutionary Russia a better ally against the CP than Tsarist Russia could be at that point.

There is also the perspective of keeping the Romanovs in power based on German support, which certainly would be something quite unpopular in Russia. In any case, this would prevent WWI as we know it, but probably would trigger another Russian Revolution (either white or red) quite soon.

Mario · Nov 13, 2020

1905 Russian Revolution threads are not very popular I see

Corjomc · Nov 13, 2020

May they set up the spectre of communism a decade earlier where when World War I happens the Reds to the East leap upon the opportunity leading to World revolution?

Grand Admiral Thrawn · Nov 14, 2020

Mario said:
1905 Russian Revolution threads are not very popular I see

It seems a bit difficult, as unless the Germans are invited in, it is an invasion, which triggers France into invading (under the treaty obligations), so a 1905 WW1. But if Germany is there to help crush rebellions (like 1848 Austria) then France will grumble at how close they are, UK will decry the authoritative nature of Prussian/Russian leaders, lots of handwringing but no action.

Mario · Nov 14, 2020

Grand Admiral Thrawn said:
It seems a bit difficult, as unless the Germans are invited in, it is an invasion, which triggers France into invading (under the treaty obligations), so a 1905 WW1. But if Germany is there to help crush rebellions (like 1848 Austria) then France will grumble at how close they are, UK will decry the authoritative nature of Prussian/Russian leaders, lots of handwringing but no action.

Maybe Nicky could call Willy for help in a last desperate move in order to save his throne.

This would be such an impopular move, but maybe Nicky could see it as a last chance for saving the throne, if not for him, at least fo his son.

HexWargamer · Nov 14, 2020

I would suggest without the economic collapse caused by Russia's involvement in WW1 the communiststs don't stand a chance (not enough support from the starving down-trodden (about to be sent to the German front) populance) ... especially as the Russian Army is at home (and available to put down the revolutionaries) and not sitting in trenches == and ready to mutiny when told to go over the top and face German artillery and machine guns at the front ...

hirsch91 · Nov 14, 2020

If it triggers WW1 early, then I could see the Japanese reinvading Russia in order to get Karafuto. Many in imperial Japan felt betrayed when they didn't get to annex all of Sakhalin. The Schlieffenplan has just started being drawn so I don't think Germans are willing to bet on it. Also, the Anglo-Russian entente was founded in 1907, so the British stance on this matter is up to debate.

Aghasverov · Nov 14, 2020

Well, one thing to remember about the Anglo-Russian (and Anglo-French, for that matter) "entente" agreements is that they were not military alliances per se, but a settlement of old disagreements and a vague promise to cooperate on certain military (mainly naval) matters. Technically the UK wasn't obligated to join in on France and Russia's behalf in Aug of 1914, although certain persons in Asquith's Government felt otherwise.
In 1905-07, the British would've probably preferred order to be restored in Russia and the throne of Cousin Nicky preserved, even if it meant German and Austro-Hungarian troops swarming in to assist in restoring that order. For their part, Der Kaiser and Der KuK could portray it as "repaying the favour" from Alex I and Nicky I's interventions in western Europe in the days of the "Holy Alliance"...
But yeah, it would be intensely unpopular among the Russian populace, particularly the urban proletariat who would no doubt supply most of the insurrectionists, and probably among certain elements of the Russian Government and military establishment as well - particularly if the Germans and Austro-Hungarians overstayed their welcome. And Japan, still resentful of the Treaty of Portsmouth, is definitely a wild card. I doubt if they'd outright invade Russian territory, but they could definitely take advantage of the chaos in Russia to bolster their position in Manchuria - "we are temporarily 'securing' the Far Eastern Railway, as the Russians are currently unable to do so themselves"