WI Germans took a colony as part of the Peace of Frankfurt in 1871?

If Germany took Cochinchina/Cambodia from France in 1871, which is most likely:

  • a) Germany loses control, unable to suppress a local rebellion that occurs during power transition

    Votes: 5 18.5%
  • b) France takes it back through a colonial/naval war or intrigue over the next decade

    Votes: 4 14.8%
  • c) Germany successfully takes over the French position

    Votes: 11 40.7%
  • d) Germany never expands into the rest of Indochina

    Votes: 5 18.5%
  • e) Germany expands the same amount at the same time as France in OTL

    Votes: 5 18.5%
  • f) Germany has a war with China over Indochina or more (as France later did in OTL)

    Votes: 2 7.4%
  • g) Germany avoids war with China

    Votes: 5 18.5%
  • h) Germany makes Indochina bigger than it was in OTL (adding Siam, or Chinese border areas, etc.)

    Votes: 2 7.4%
  • i) France stays out of Southeast Asia/East Asia

    Votes: 1 3.7%
  • j) France looks for a substitute East Asian colony (Siam, Korea, a piece of greater Japan or East In

    Votes: 7 25.9%

  • Total voters
    27

raharris1973

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Germany takes a colony off of France, which the French had brought up. Germany takes just one colony- not as a replacement for Alsace-Lorraine as the French were hoping, but rather in return for a partial reduction in the indemnity or a retrocession of a few small villages/districts/towns in Lorraine.

Bismarck (or Germany's) key principle is they will take something, but nothing that is too close for comfort for Britain or the United States (ruling out Caribbean islands, enclaves in India, the African bulge or the African horn).

So let's say it's the French position in Indochina, which at this time, is just limited to the colony of Cochin-China and a protectorate over Cambodia.

How do things go from there?

a) Germany loses control immediately, unable to suppress a local rebellion that occurs during power transition (always a risk when switching foreign masters over people who likely don't want a foreign master)

b) France takes it back through a colonial/naval war or intrigue over the next decade

c) Germany successfully takes over the French position

d) Germany never expands into the rest of Indochina

-Note, in OTL, France did not take over northern and central Vietnam until the 1880s, and Laos in the 1890s​

e) Germany expands the same amount at the same time as France in OTL

f) Germany has a war with China over Indochina or more

- Note, France went to war with China in OTL as part of consolidating control over Vietnam and tearing it away from China's tributary orbit, so I am not bringing up a random aggression here.​

g) Germany avoids war with China

h) Germany makes Indochina bigger than it was in OTL (adding Siam, or Chinese border areas, etc.)

i) France stays out of Southeast Asia

j) France looks for a substitute East Asian colony (Siam, Korea, a piece of greater Japan or East Indies)
 
Well...
France is pissed off. Like, a lot.
Britain may not be particularly concerned, but also not very pleased.
In general, the Germans are looking greedy here. In 1871, they have no use for a colony, and almost no navy to connect with it too, so they are either going to renounce to it for something else (but why to take in the first place then?) or put some effort into actually controlling the place, building the required navy etc. That would be a matter of prestige at the very least, but Cochinchina was also lucrative colony AFAIK, so there's going to be economic interest. Germany, of course, would be in a worse position than France to profit from it (again, little naval power to speak of).
So you have a slight change of German priorities, more naval focus earlier, with also a more vindictive France next door, meaning that the resources for the military cannot be reduced in proportion. Relationship with Britain are going to be more problematic for the simple fact that Germany is building a significant oceanic navy, which would worry the British somewhat; it is true that something on the level of the Netherlands or Portugal would suffice to Berlin for colonial purposes, but the Netherlands and Portugal are not Great Powers, and Germany is.
I doubt Germany would expand into Indochina as quickly and eagerly as France did; the political considerations would be completely different; or else, Indochina may turn out the primary or only focus of German overseas expansionism, leading to them confronting Siam and/or China earlier (and still raising eyebrows in London, a lot); this sounds less likely however, at least under Bismarck.
 

raharris1973

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Well...
France is pissed off. Like, a lot.
Britain may not be particularly concerned, but also not very pleased.
In general, the Germans are looking greedy here. In 1871, they have no use for a colony, and almost no navy to connect with it too, so they are either going to renounce to it for something else (but why to take in the first place then?) or put some effort into actually controlling the place, building the required navy etc. That would be a matter of prestige at the very least, but Cochinchina was also lucrative colony AFAIK, so there's going to be economic interest. Germany, of course, would be in a worse position than France to profit from it (again, little naval power to speak of).
So you have a slight change of German priorities, more naval focus earlier, with also a more vindictive France next door, meaning that the resources for the military cannot be reduced in proportion. Relationship with Britain are going to be more problematic for the simple fact that Germany is building a significant oceanic navy, which would worry the British somewhat; it is true that something on the level of the Netherlands or Portugal would suffice to Berlin for colonial purposes, but the Netherlands and Portugal are not Great Powers, and Germany is.
I doubt Germany would expand into Indochina as quickly and eagerly as France did; the political considerations would be completely different; or else, Indochina may turn out the primary or only focus of German overseas expansionism, leading to them confronting Siam and/or China earlier (and still raising eyebrows in London, a lot); this sounds less likely however, at least under Bismarck.

So did you vote for France wins it back in the poll?
 

raharris1973

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That would be a matter of prestige at the very least, but Cochinchina was also lucrative colony AFAIK, so there's going to be economic interest. Germany, of course, would be in a worse position than France to profit from it (again, little naval power to speak of).

Isn't economic profit in peacetime determined by supply and demand for cargos on merchant ships, not naval ships? Germany's merchant marine was getting respectable well before it's navy.

Unless you are saying the German navy was so weak even the natives could beat it and run the Germans out of town themselves.
 

raharris1973

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I voted for C, E, F, H and J, italicized below. I've added explanations for why I think certain things happen or do not happen.

  1. a) Germany loses control immediately, unable to suppress a local rebellion that occurs during power transition (always a risk when switching foreign masters over people who likely don't want a foreign master)

    1. -I do not think this would happen realistically. Prussia-Germany did not have a fleet anywhere near the size of France's or Russia's or Italy's at the time, but it had some modern vessels that did Far Eastern voyages that could bombard the Cochinchinese and Cambodians into submission from the South China Sea coast or Mekong river if they rebel. If Germany takes the annexation, they will make some preparations to make it work. By the middle 1870s Germany was successfully pursing gunboat diplomacy against Latin American countries, they can outmatch and overawe the locals, who live in a small, relatively manageable territory.

      -I'd be interested in seeing how folks think a rebellion would go down and how the new Germany would accept the prestige hit of not sending ships and troops to put natives back in their place.

    b) France takes it back through a colonial/naval war or intrigue over the next decade

    1. -I do not think this would happen realistically. In the first 2-5 years after Frankfurt, France would not do any hanky-panky or sabotage or take-backs in Indochina if the Republic has ceded the land by treaty, even though the French Navy, troops and administrators locally are fully capable of doing so in a physical and logistical sense. Why? Parts of metropolitan France are still under German occupation at this time, and cheating on treaty terms while the Germans are there just threatens the process of getting the Prussians to evacuate.

      After the German occupation is completely ended, France has more options. But even if it is capable of steaming to Cochinchina to take it back in the second half of the 1870s, it would never be worth it for France to do this as a stand-alone expedition, because France has to assume it will have to fight the Germans in their common border in Europe if it grabs German land overseas. I would think France might do an expedition, but only in circumstances where it has decided that it can also fight and win in Europe, and reclaim Alsace-Lorraine. Indochina could be a sideshow campaign for the French at the same time.

    c) Germany successfully takes over the French position

    1. - If Germany accepts/demands the colony as part of the Peace Treaty, it will not tolerate being cheated by the French or defeated by the locals. It is a gross exaggeration to say Germany had no navy prior to Tirpitz, it had some modern warships in 1871 and merchant ships that could go the distance. What it did not have on hand in terms of hardware or crews or supplies it could purchase or hire in Europe and ports of call along the way. Sovereign German ports of call are not needed as long as Germany is at peace with the European powers and local potentates who own them.

    d) Germany never expands into the rest of Indochina

    -Note, in OTL, France did not take over northern and central Vietnam until the 1880s, and Laos in the 1890s

    -In theory this is possible. I just see it as more likely German "men-on-the-spot" would be just as interested as Frenchmen were in developing and securing trade links up the Mekong and Red Rivers to reach the China market.

    e) Germany expands the same amount at the same time as France in OTL


    - Germans will expand as much as the French, or a little more, for reasons of trade. This will not extend into an enterprise to take over Southern China or annex Siam however, because of the intimidating scale and expense of such operations and the offense to Britain it would cause.


    f) Germany has a war with China over Indochina or more


    - Note, France went to war with China in OTL as part of consolidating control over Vietnam and tearing it away from China's tributary orbit, so I am not bringing up a random aggression here.

    - I was tempted to say there would not be a war because the Chinese would not stand in the way of Germany's more fearsome military reputation, and diplomatic skill. But, the Chinese court probably will miss these European nuances and decide they need to put up a fight for their tributary state, and believe they have successfully defied Russia.


    g) Germany avoids war with China

    h) Germany makes Indochina bigger than it was in OTL (adding Siam, or Chinese border areas, etc.)

    -Germany, as a stronger power with a better diplomatic position on the European continent than France in the 1880s, can probably dream a little bigger. It can probably tack Hainan island or Taiwan on to Indochina, and part of Siam's inland plateau, especially if its diplomats arrange a coalition that allows others to profit also, like the Russians in northern Xinjiang, Outer Mongolia and Manchuria, and the Japanese in Korea and possibly Taiwan, and other countries like Italy, A-H, France or Britain in terms of additional coastal treaty ports or leases.


    i) France stays out of Southeast Asia

    j) France looks for a substitute East Asian colony (Siam, Korea, a piece of greater Japan or East Indies)

    - France has the tools and experience to project power into the region, so I think they will try to do so at some point before everything is claimed by others. I do not know exactly where

 
Isn't economic profit in peacetime determined by supply and demand for cargos on merchant ships, not naval ships? Germany's merchant marine was getting respectable well before it's navy.

Unless you are saying the German navy was so weak even the natives could beat it and run the Germans out of town themselves.

No, I was referring to the navy needed for establishing control and defend the territory and perhaps the sea lanes connecting to it, but you are right, they are not directly relevant to profit, once control is established. I don't think that the Vietnamese can defeat the Germans on the sea a this point, but Germany would have trouble projecting power in case of revolt.
 
There were fears in Indochinese establishment at the end of the XIXth century.
It reached a peak during the Mayréna affair where an adventurer carved a kingdom in the highlands of Indochina. There were fears that a Prusso-Siamese alliance was trying to influence the tribes to weaken Indochina.

Cochinchina however was of limited value. Indochina as a whole was valuable for three reasons : Rice, rubber and China
Rice is low value but still useful
Rubber isn't there at the FPW, it's gonna be imported later from Brazil and will flourish there
China, because Tonkin and the Red River were seen as backdoors to the Chinese market. Now you did have some movement there by the FPW, with the Dupuis/Rivière expédition in 1873 but it's a harder sell.

Cochinchina was a recent Vietnamese colony, conquered by Gia Long around 1800 and ethnically different (khmer, not viet). Tonkin is THE core of Vietnam, even if the capital is in Hué by then. If you wanna dominate Tonkin, you need to be ready to flatten the Viets and China. Not impossible but you need strong power projection and a trained colonial military and medical corps. If the German take it, they'd probably stick to Cochinchina for a while longer, probably coordinate more with Siam which would retain the West of the Mekong. They'd have to start from scratch whereas France had at least a common history with Vietnam (although it's been amped by colonial propaganda)
 
What if germany takes it in the peace just to sell it right away to either the highest bidder or simply to Britain. In latter case they might not even ask that much. They could try it as a cheap way to ensure that France and Brittain dont become friends. It might even work.
 

raharris1973

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What if germany takes it in the peace just to sell it right away to either the highest bidder or simply to Britain. In latter case they might not even ask that much. They could try it as a cheap way to ensure that France and Brittain dont become friends. It might even work.

Interesting idea - do you think the British would be in a buying mood? Was it a Disraeli or Gladstone Ministry at the time (1871-1872)
 
The French government will not be happy, although for the French people this will not be as much of a psychological blow as losing the Alsace-Lorraine territory. From a nationalist perspective this may mean slightly lower tensions than OTL. You won't see propaganda like this over losing Cochinchina.

I think France will still try to get involved in Southeast Asia, but not certain where. Maybe Tonkin. Have the Dutch conquered all of Indonesia? Maybe there is an opening there?
 
The French government will not be happy, although for the French people this will not be as much of a psychological blow as losing the Alsace-Lorraine territory. From a nationalist perspective this may mean slightly lower tensions than OTL. You won't see propaganda like this over losing Cochinchina.

I think France will still try to get involved in Southeast Asia, but not certain where. Maybe Tonkin. Have the Dutch conquered all of Indonesia? Maybe there is an opening there?
You still have Cambodia, Siam, Hainan, Korea and bits of Malaysia (not sure on latter)
 
Interesting idea - do you think the British would be in a buying mood? Was it a Disraeli or Gladstone Ministry at the time (1871-1872)

Im not sure about the actual british government at the time but im pretty sure it seems like a great deal to them. They get a hegemonic positon in mainland south east asia kicking out the only power that was considered their rival, and they got all this without fighting at a bargain price. They also got the whole of southern China in the british zone of influence a bit later. And even if they know that this antagonises France, its not like they have been friends and they can think that France will get over it.

Germany assures Brittain that it has no evil intention and creates another rift between London and Paris.

France wil try to seek compensation somewhere. If its in Korea thats a conflict with Japan and Russia as well. They could expand even more in Africa to compensate british Asia but this could lead to more numerous and more intense Fashoda like crisis. Or maybe they will try to take over colonies of weaker powers - Spain or Portogal. Whatever they do they will get into conflicts that will make an OTL antant like alliance system much more difficult to create. And in regards of Brittain im pretty sure that there will be a significant bunch of nationalist who are convinced that the germans are really just the lapdogs of the british and its London who has pulled the strings all along. Might be quite funy.
 
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