WI: Germans capture Amiens in 1918

My guess is that if the German's can take Amien's, they would be in a very good position to negotiate a peace treaty. They aren't likely to get much, but potentially something along the lines of: Brest-Litvosk recognised in the East; no colonies returned to Germany (because they have no hope of reclaiming them); no reparations or war guilt acknowledgement by either side.

The American's would be most willing to negotiate, with Britain being the second most likely, and France highly unlikely being willing to negotiate unless forced to by the other members of the Entente

Why wouldn't they be able to regain their colonies? Granted, South-West Africa and its Pacific colonies are a completely moot point, but German East Africa hadn't surrendered, and Lettow-Votbeck's forces were still fighting on, so I don't see why they wouldn't get German East Africa back at least.

Also, would they be able to coerce the Congo from Belgium?
 
While the French wanted American units under French command to be placed in the lines where needed, these would still be US formations with US staff. What the British wanted was for US soldiers to be sent to the UK, further trained there and then used as replacements in British units! Later on they were OK with whole units - basically at least initially the British wanted to use the US soldiers as a replacement pool - and its unlikely any officers over the rank of 1st lieutenant would be utilized (except medical officers and some other specialists). Needless to say while releasing some US units as line fillers or interspersed in quieter areas for training was OK, the idea of US soldiers being slotted as replacements in UK units was a non-starter
 
Why wouldn't they negotiate?

They just didn't do it. Show me one occasion where the Entente powers agreed to negotiate with the enemy.
Even at Versailles and the other suburb treaties they didn't negotiate with the defeated enemy. The only negotations going on were those between the Entente powers and their associates who would get what piece of the pie.

You need an outright revolution to get France to negotiate, Poincaré chased away by an angry mob, Clemenceau cudgelled to death at his desk, Caillaux dragged out of prison...
But even Caillaux would think twice before starting negotiations. The French politicians knew very well that once they started negotiations, their soldiers were going to stop fighting. And that it would be mere impossible to get them fighting again in case the negotiations failed.
 
They just didn't do it. Show me one occasion where the Entente powers agreed to negotiate with the enemy.
Even at Versailles and the other suburb treaties they didn't negotiate with the defeated enemy. The only negotations going on were those between the Entente powers and their associates who would get what piece of the pie.

That's because their enemies were already defeated. In this scenario, both sides are on roughly equal footing. The Germans have the advantage of controlling the Allies' main logistics centre, and can starve the BEF, and while the AEF is present, it's inexperienced compared to the Allies. So if the Germans offer a reasonable peace treaty (e.g. no reparations or war guilt, essentially bringing the war to a draw), the Allies may just accept it, maybe negotiate if they're in dire conditions.
 
ATL Czar;7805121So if the Germans offer a reasonable peace treaty (e.g. no reparations or war guilt said:
Those German leaders who might have agreed to a status-quo-ante peace are long out of office (Bethmann Hollweg, Falkenhayn). Right now, Hindenburg and Ludendorff are kings of the castle - and they will not offer what the Entente might consider a reasonable peace. Ludendorff was every inch as eager to dictate a peace settlement as were Clemenceau and Lloyd George. And that little bit of reason that Wilson may have had once was gone now with entry into the war.
 
Those German leaders who might have agreed to a status-quo-ante peace are long out of office (Bethmann Hollweg, Falkenhayn). Right now, Hindenburg and Ludendorff are kings of the castle - and they will not offer what the Entente might consider a reasonable peace. Ludendorff was every inch as eager to dictate a peace settlement as were Clemenceau and Lloyd George. And that little bit of reason that Wilson may have had once was gone now with entry into the war.

Well, like you said, any peace treaty that Ludendorff or Hindenburg will propose is likely to be quite outrageous to the Entente; but with both sides wanting an end to the war in this scenario, any peace settlement will come with a lot of negotiating.
 
My guess is that if the German's can take Amien's, they would be in a very good position to negotiate a peace treaty. They aren't likely to get much, but potentially something along the lines of: Brest-Litvosk recognised in the East; no colonies returned to Germany (because they have no hope of reclaiming them); no reparations or war guilt acknowledgement by either side.

The American's would be most willing to negotiate, with Britain being the second most likely, and France highly unlikely being willing to negotiate unless forced to by the other members of the Entente

That resolution sounds plausible. What it does is set up a proto Cold War situation, with France, Britain, and, somewhat, America, lined up against colossus Germany and its various hanger-ons, but both sides afraid to start anything.

How would the Middle East and the Balkans get resolved? There are lots of sticking points out there. That's where I'd also expect the most post-war maneuvering.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Why wouldn't they be able to regain their colonies? Granted, South-West Africa and its Pacific colonies are a completely moot point, but German East Africa hadn't surrendered, and Lettow-Votbeck's forces were still fighting on, so I don't see why they wouldn't get German East Africa back at least.

Also, would they be able to coerce the Congo from Belgium?

The best way to see this is to try to sit down and game out a negoatiated peace, like I did for my TL. You start with list the peoples opening positions. They are not one Entente, but lose allies with different purposes.

1) UK undefeated on Sea. Now has large quality army. Has USA money, so will not go bankrupt in this scenario. While not ideal, a greatly weakened France and a strong Germany is workable. The great game will go on. We can ally with Russia or USA. Why give up our gains (colonies)? We need to say that we won, since UK public sacrificed so much. Bigger empire is nice part.

2) Now Congo for Belgium is common in ATL, but I think a "win" for Germany here is not a big enough win to get the Congo. UK is more likely to get Congo.

3) France is the one that might give up colonies, so a lot is on French morale. If high cause USA is coming, the no. If low, then maybe they give something in West Africa or Pacific back to Germany.

4) If Germany is at table, it mean they know they can't win long war. Food issues. Likely to compromise.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Why wouldn't they be able to regain their colonies? Granted, South-West Africa and its Pacific colonies are a completely moot point, but German East Africa hadn't surrendered, and Lettow-Votbeck's forces were still fighting on, so I don't see why they wouldn't get German East Africa back at least.

Lettow-Vorbeck remains in the field with a small force, but the colony itself is under Allied occupation by this point. The Germans had abandoned their own colony to operate in Portuguese territory.

Also, would they be able to coerce the Congo from Belgium?

Probably not, for the simple reason that the British would have been unwilling for them to have it.
 
Peace of Exhaustion

Taking Amiens would result in an almost immediate Entente counterattack in order to try retake it and it is not a given that the attack fails but assuming that it does it becomes harder for the Entente to seize the initiative and their progress late in the year is smaller. Things are less bad for Germany than OTL but they are not good. Bulgaria and the OE are still knocked out of the war. The Aster Revolution still occurs in Hungary. The war does not end but there is a hard winter. Things are not good in France either though with a series of exhaustion but there is Spartacist agitation in Germany.

By Feb 1919 both Germany and France are very afraid of revolution. Maybe Italy as well. Meanwhile heavily mounting American casualties are starting to erode public support for Wilson. Secret negotiations through a neutral begin in Feb. There is a March Entente offensive that is entirely Anglo-American as French will to attack is next to nil. They make some progress but less than DLG and WW were expecting. Clemenceau's government falls. His successor is obscure weakling. It becomes public knowledge that negotiations are underway.

The Third Military Council resigns after Lewd & Dwarf has a breakdown. A new German leadership negotiates a peace. France gets Alsace-Lorraine. There are mild reparations to be paid to Belgium only. German overseas colonies are forfeit. However there is a grudging Entente acceptance of Brest-Litovsk to Wilson's dismay. There are no restrictions on the German army but the KM must reduce its submarine fleet to a small number.
 

Deleted member 1487

Taking Amiens would result in an almost immediate Entente counterattack in order to try retake it and it is not a given that the attack fails but assuming that it does it becomes harder for the Entente to seize the initiative and their progress late in the year is smaller. Things are less bad for Germany than OTL but they are not good. Bulgaria and the OE are still knocked out of the war. The Aster Revolution still occurs in Hungary. The war does not end but there is a hard winter. Things are not good in France either though with a series of exhaustion but there is Spartacist agitation in Germany.

By Feb 1919 both Germany and France are very afraid of revolution. Maybe Italy as well. Meanwhile heavily mounting American casualties are starting to erode public support for Wilson. Secret negotiations through a neutral begin in Feb. There is a March Entente offensive that is entirely Anglo-American as French will to attack is next to nil. They make some progress but less than DLG and WW were expecting. Clemenceau's government falls. His successor is obscure weakling. It becomes public knowledge that negotiations are underway.

The Third Military Council resigns after Lewd & Dwarf has a breakdown. A new German leadership negotiates a peace. France gets Alsace-Lorraine. There are mild reparations to be paid to Belgium only. German overseas colonies are forfeit. However there is a grudging Entente acceptance of Brest-Litovsk to Wilson's dismay. There are no restrictions on the German army but the KM must reduce its submarine fleet to a small number.

The fall of Amiens doesn't mean the Germans stop. In fact they probably keep attacking because of their increased morale and hope that they can end the war in 1919; they can't sit still because they realize the army cannot handle another year of war any more than the nation can.

So after operation Michael captures Amiens, then Georgette is prepared:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spring_Offensive#Georgette
IOTL Michael was called off on April 5th, while Georgette was launched on April 9th. That's very little down time between offensives, so after the Germans take Amiens, probably in late March, that gives the Allies ~10 days to take back the city before another German offensive breaks on the British lines. They've just lost an entire army in Michael and are pouring reserves into position to retake Amiens, so just like IOTL they will be drawing units off of Flanders to help down south; unlike OTL the British won't have French units stationed there to help them, nor will they be able to get sufficient supplies to the Front without Amiens.

The British are pretty much in some serious trouble and won't be able to participate offensively in France for months. That leaves the French to deal with the Germans on their way to Paris. I don't think the Germans can take Paris, but they can cause the French enough angst to make them potentially drop out of the war or at least ask for an armistice.

There is a good map here I can't link to, check it out.
http://members.kos.net/sdgagnon/milb.html



10633.jpg

stacks_image_3359_1.png


OTL offensives.
Western_front_1918_german.jpg
 
The fall of Amiens doesn't mean the Germans stop. In fact they probably keep attacking because of their increased morale and hope that they can end the war in 1919; they can't sit still because they realize the army cannot handle another year of war any more than the nation can.

So after operation Michael captures Amiens, then Georgette is prepared:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spring_Offensive#Georgette
IOTL Michael was called off on April 5th, while Georgette was launched on April 9th. That's very little down time between offensives, so after the Germans take Amiens, probably in late March, that gives the Allies ~10 days to take back the city before another German offensive breaks on the British lines. They've just lost an entire army in Michael and are pouring reserves into position to retake Amiens, so just like IOTL they will be drawing units off of Flanders to help down south; unlike OTL the British won't have French units stationed there to help them, nor will they be able to get sufficient supplies to the Front without Amiens.

The British are pretty much in some serious trouble and won't be able to participate offensively in France for months. That leaves the French to deal with the Germans on their way to Paris. I don't think the Germans can take Paris, but they can cause the French enough angst to make them potentially drop out of the war or at least ask for an armistice.

I would think that Germany would achieve some sort of victory, or an armistice, way before 1919, possible Autumn 1918. but, I agree that some sort of a German victory is definitely possible in this scenario, whether it would be a truncated, indecisive victory, or more of a draw between the two sides.

Now the real question is, how will both sides negotiate, and what will Germany get in the peace treaty?
 
There is a good map here I can't link to, check it out.
http://members.kos.net/sdgagnon/milb.html


The maps you do give are fine, esp the first one.

It seems to confirm my doubts about a British retirement to Calais if Amiens' loss is followed by that of Hazebrouck. Afaics, that severs the main rail link between Calais and Ypres, so that British withdrawal will have to take a more northerly route. I'd expect the British "redoubt" (if this proves feasible at all) to be at Dunkirk rather than Calais.

This becomes even more likely if Haig takes too long over deciding to abandon Ypres, which by this time seems to have acquired a kind of "iconic" significance for the BEF.
 
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