WI: Germanic Tribes migrate South towards Anatolia and Mesopotamia

[Tosa Inu]

Let's say that during the third century, different series of crisises and events in the Roman Empire left the Western parts of the Roman Empire stayed strong, while the Eastern parts ended up weakened and impoverished.

So Germanic tribes like Franks, Goths, Vandals, Saxons, Angles, and Lombards ended up taking the southern route, moving through Balkans before trying to settle in Anatolia and Mesopotamia (instead of Western Europe).

What is the likely effect of this migration to Eastern Roman Empire instead of the Western parts?

 

[Mars aeternum]

Interesting question.. I have been thinking such a scenario myself. Anglo-Saxons in Greece, Ostrogoths/Visigoths in Anatolia, Vandals in the Levant, Franks in Egypt and Lombards in Moesia.

My first thought is that the threat of Persia may keep Roman / Germanic interests on the same side, thus preventing a total disintegration of ERE.

 

[Metempsychosis]

Hm. Geography seems a bit against it. I mean, the Huns did raid and conquer in that direction, and the Ostrogoths settled in Illyria and Dacia, but for the most part it's kinda iffy...

 

[Tosa Inu]

Hm. Geography seems a bit against it. I mean, the Huns did raid and conquer in that direction, and the Ostrogoths settled in Illyria and Dacia, but for the most part it's kinda iffy...

Well, can't a more solid Western Roman Garrisons along the Rhine ended up repelling the Germanic Tribes, and at the same time weaker Balkan and Constantinople do the trick?

Without the later heavy plows, the soils of Western Europe actually produces less yield than the Balkan and Anatolian soil. Those would be more lucrative to be immediately settled instead of Western Europe, who'll need investments.

 

[Silver01]

can be done if shapur does a lot of damage the goths raided anatolia in the crisis so its possible

 

[NedStark]

Well, can't a more solid Western Roman Garrisons along the Rhine ended up repelling the Germanic Tribes, and at the same time weaker Balkan and Constantinople do the trick?

Without the later heavy plows, the soils of Western Europe actually produces less yield than the Balkan and Anatolian soil. Those would be more lucrative to be immediately settled instead of Western Europe, who'll need investments.

can be done if shapur does a lot of damage the goths raided anatolia in the crisis so its possible

For Levant and Asia Minor, the big obstacle is Constantinople.

Greece was already raided a lot, but its terrain means that Greek cities could be better defended than those in Gaul.

 

[Tosa Inu]

For Levant and Asia Minor, the big obstacle is Constantinople.

Greece was already raided a lot, but its terrain means that Greek cities could be better defended than those in Gaul.

Let's see that somehow Constantinople got sacked, raided, and the Romans there choose to move west to Italy and Gaul. With more "fertile" levant and Mesopotamia open, why not the Germans move there?

 

[Roland Traveler]

For Levant and Asia Minor, the big obstacle is Constantinople.

Greece was already raided a lot, but its terrain means that Greek cities could be better defended than those in Gaul.

If Constantinople facilitates a Germanic migration, say in a war against Persia, that would allow them to cross the Dardanelles and arrive in Asia Minor. Once they’re there, I don’t think anyone will have either the resources or will to make them leave again, especially if they’re arriving with explicit Eastern Roman backing.

 

[NedStark]

Let's see that somehow Constantinople got sacked, raided, and the Romans there choose to move west to Italy and Gaul. With more "fertile" levant and Mesopotamia open, why not the Germans move there?

Even the Persians and the Arabs at their height failed to sack Constantinople. I don't think the barbarian groups can pull it off.

If Constantinople facilitates a Germanic migration, say in a war against Persia, that would allow them to cross the Dardanelles and arrive in Asia Minor. Once they’re there, I don’t think anyone will have either the resources or will to make them leave again, especially if they’re arriving with explicit Eastern Roman backing.

The ERE did use barbarian mercenaries. However, as for WRE-style foederati, then no, as the eastern ERE regions had sufficient manpower. I mean, Anatolia, Levant and Egypt were the most populous regions, the Empire could raise troops there, so it had far less reliance on barbarian troops.

 

[PecuTheGreat]

Let's see that somehow Constantinople got sacked, raided, and the Romans there choose to move west to Italy and Gaul. With more "fertile" levant and Mesopotamia open, why not the Germans move there?

I think Constantinople never gets built is a better POD but honestly feels like the Germnaics would have to utterly conquer Dalmatia, Moesia and neighbouring provinces for a while, which is doable a especially if as a Confederacy of all of them and from there, one by one a disatisfied tribe goes to conquer further.

 

[PecuTheGreat]

Anyhow, three important main differences are a richer and more populous east, more theologically and culturally variant east, and Persia always being a looking threat to the east.

We might actually see each Barbarian Kingdom favour their own flavour of Christianity, if and only if Eastern Rome remains Pagan somehow.

 

[Carter I'm Yog]

I have a tangentially related example, if OP is interested. The city-state of Byzantium grows into an empire through, well, a lot of events. However, through another long series of events, eventually Byzantium falls in the east, and the Byzantine empire lives on with a new core at New Byzantium, which old Byzantium derisively refers to as "Theodosiopolis", after the emperor Theodosius that expanded the walls of the medium-sized city called Rome all the way to Ostia, forming a second city of imperial scale.

大家设计过什么样的架空王朝/政权？ - 知乎

拜占庭帝国（Bayzantine Aftocratoria）注意：不是otl里的东罗马帝国，且与东罗马帝国之间没有联系。这是…

www.zhihu.com

Link to the original, and I translate the related map.

The map of the Med, 1194 years Meta Polis(after the foundation of the city of Byzantium, i.e. 527AD)

Purple: West Byzantine Empire
Gray-Blue: Kdm. of the Franks
Red: Kdm. of the Burgundians
Pink: Kdm. of the Gepids
Green: Kdm. of the Ostrogoths
Blue: Kdm. of the Visigoths
Brown: Iranian Empire
Burgundy: Kdm. of the Vandals

 

[Jürgen]

I have a tangentially related example, if OP is interested. The city-state of Byzantium grows into an empire through, well, a lot of events. However, through another long series of events, eventually Byzantium falls in the east, and the Byzantine empire lives on with a new core at New Byzantium, which old Byzantium derisively refers to as "Theodosiopolis", after the emperor Theodosius that expanded the walls of the medium-sized city called Rome all the way to Ostia, forming a second city of imperial scale.

大家设计过什么样的架空王朝/政权？ - 知乎

拜占庭帝国（Bayzantine Aftocratoria）注意：不是otl里的东罗马帝国，且与东罗马帝国之间没有联系。这是…

www.zhihu.com

Link to the original, and I translate the related map.
View attachment 698452
The map of the Med, 1194 years Meta Polis(after the foundation of the city of Byzantium, i.e. 527AD)

Purple: West Byzantine Empire
Gray-Blue: Kdm. of the Franks
Red: Kdm. of the Burgundians
Pink: Kdm. of the Gepids
Green: Kdm. of the Ostrogoths
Blue: Kdm. of the Visigoths
Brown: Iranian Empire
Burgundy: Kdm. of the Vandals

The Ostrogoth had a Scythian style lifestyle, it would make sense to place them in Anatolia and the Visigoths (who was sedentary farmers) in the Balkans.

 

[Jürgen]

So there three ways to get the Goths into the Middle East.

1: The Iranian/Turkish route expanding east into Central Asia and the expanding south.
2: Moving into northern Caucasus anc from there crossing the mountains into Azerbaijan.
3: Going through Balkans and Anatolia.

Here’s my suggestion. Some Ostrogothic prince convert to Nicene Christianity before the Huns comes along, he lose a civil war and flee with his followers into East Roman Empire, the East Roman Empire have just had war gone bad with Persians and Anatolia have been ravaging Anatolia, so they become settle as confederalis in Anatolia. They do well there and their population expand, helped by other Nicene Goths choosing to migrate to vassal kingdom. This also acclimate themselves to the region and in the aftermath of Hunnish invasions and the migration of the Visigoths into the Balkans, they end. up de facto independent with the East Roman Empire reduced Constantinople, Egypt, Greece and the coastline of Anatolia. The Anatolian Ostrogoth end up waging wars against the Armenians and Persians expanding east and south the push the mountain Iranic people (Kurds) out the southern Armenian Highland, while setting themselves up as the ruling elite of Levant and Mesopotamia.

 

[Tosa Inu]

This also acclimate themselves to the region and in the aftermath of Hunnish invasions and the migration of the Visigoths into the Balkans, they end. up de facto independent with the East Roman Empire reduced Constantinople, Egypt, Greece and the coastline of Anatolia. The Anatolian Ostrogoth end up waging wars against the Armenians and Persians expanding east and south the push the mountain Iranic people (Kurds) out the southern Armenian Highland, while setting themselves up as the ruling elite of Levant and Mesopotamia.

Well, this kind of make some sense.

Gothic migration to Balkans and Anatolia as ruling warrior elites kinda make sense. They could even ended up technically taking over Eastern Roman Empire if they were Nicaean Christians, with Ostro or Visigothic Dynast(ies) replacing one of the original Dynasties down the line.

But what about the other Germanics like Franks, Lombards, and Vandals?

 

[Jürgen]

Well, this kind of make some sense.

Gothic migration to Balkans and Anatolia as ruling warrior elites kinda make sense. They could even ended up technically taking over Eastern Roman Empire if they were Nicaean Christians, with Ostro or Visigothic Dynast(ies) replacing one of the original Dynasties down the line.

But what about the other Germanics like Franks, Lombards, and Vandals?

The Franks can’t be avoided, as they were forcible settled south of the Rhine after being defeated by the Romans, but with Roman control over the Balkans breaking down and the Visigothic migration, this open the Balkans up to Germanic tribes which in OTL was pushed into the West Roman Empire by other tribes. Some regions of the west still falls to Germanic and Alannic migration, but the West Romans keep control over Italy, Iberia and Maghreb.

While the Visigoth set up in Thrace and the Lower Danube, the Arian Ostrogoth settle in Illyria, the Vandals end up neighboring them. The Burgundians without the Hunnic-Roman defeat of them stay in Swabia. The Anglo-Saxons migration are pretty much the same as in OTL, but with out other actors pushing Germanic people across the Rhine (so the Franks get less support form their Transrhine cousins, thereby giving them less man power), the Breton refugees may set up a real successor kingdom up in northwest Gaul.

The Langobards/Lombards are really late comers, who moved into Pannonia in the aftermath of the Hunnic collapse and was push into the Eastern Alps by the Avar invasions and only invaded Italy thanks to the vacuum the Last Gothic War left behind. Their migrations are heavy dependent on external actors.

 

[Carter I'm Yog]

The Ostrogoth had a Scythian style lifestyle, it would make sense to place them in Anatolia and the Visigoths (who was sedentary farmers) in the Balkans.

We need to consider entire event sequences, too. If based merely of living styles, OTL Ostrogoths would do better in Spain and Visigoths in Italy.

The Anatolian Ostrogoth end up waging wars against the Armenians and Persians expanding east and south the push the mountain Iranic people (Kurds) out the southern Armenian Highland, while setting themselves up as the ruling elite of Levant and Mesopotamia.

We'll need the Sassanians doing really bad. Like worse than OTL bad, which is already quite bad (Peroz you stupid sob). But in event of an Iranian collapse, I could see the Goths moving in easily like how Theodoric Amal took out Odoacer - the "Odoacer" might be some Arab client installed by the Sassanians.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

For Levant and Asia Minor, the big obstacle is Constantinople.

A third-century POD would probably butterfly away the foundation of Constantinople.

 

[kasumigenx]

The Franks can’t be avoided, as they were forcible settled south of the Rhine after being defeated by the Romans, but with Roman control over the Balkans breaking down and the Visigothic migration, this open the Balkans up to Germanic tribes which in OTL was pushed into the West Roman Empire by other tribes. Some regions of the west still falls to Germanic and Alannic migration, but the West Romans keep control over Italy, Iberia and Maghreb.

While the Visigoth set up in Thrace and the Lower Danube, the Arian Ostrogoth settle in Illyria, the Vandals end up neighboring them. The Burgundians without the Hunnic-Roman defeat of them stay in Swabia. The Anglo-Saxons migration are pretty much the same as in OTL, but with out other actors pushing Germanic people across the Rhine (so the Franks get less support form their Transrhine cousins, thereby giving them less man power), the Breton refugees may set up a real successor kingdom up in northwest Gaul.

The Langobards/Lombards are really late comers, who moved into Pannonia in the aftermath of the Hunnic collapse and was push into the Eastern Alps by the Avar invasions and only invaded Italy thanks to the vacuum the Last Gothic War left behind. Their migrations are heavy dependent on external actors.

Northern Gaul, Brittania and Roman Germania are lost but Gaul south of Liger/Loire(Occitania) gets retained which I think is basically more manageable.