WI: German-USSR peace deal in 1941

Alcsentre Calanice

Alcsentre Calanice

Imagine Hitler, Himmler and some other lunatic folks of the NSDAP are killed in November or December 1941. A more moderate leadership comes to power, admittedly Nazis, but not as obsessed by "Land in the east" and "Final solutions" as Hitler and Himmler are.

They accept Russian superiority in terms of manpower and industrial ressources, but decide to exploit the German gains until then. While the Wehrmacht fights in front of Moscow, armistice negotiations begin in Sweden.

With the German advance between June and December 1941, how much is Stalin willing to give up? Musts are:
- all of Poland for Germany
- Karelia goes back to Finland
- Romania gains Bessarabia
- Japan gets nothing (little punishment)
 

Deleted member 1487

Maybe if Hitler dies in a plane crash Goering would accept a deal with Stalin, but at that point the US was coming in the war and why would Stalin want peace then? Apparently all of his offers of peace were to buy time anyway. As it was Goering wouldn't accept peace when Germany was winning up to November and after that when Stalin was on the attack and the US in the war Stalin wouldn't accept peace. Unless Hitler dies early and Stalin offers Brest-Litovsk in say August or September, I don't see peace being possible, nor Stalin politically surviving making peace short of victory, especially if it involves giving up territory that the Germans had not yet conquered. Though perhaps Goering swaps parts of Ukraine for the area of Ingermanland around Leningrad to pull back to the Baltics and Pskov.

If the Don/Donets then is the new border, as is Belarus and the Baltics, then Stalin just reorganizes industry and gets ready for round two after the US enters the war or Germany gets worn down enough from its war with Britain. Once the war in the East starts Germany has the tiger by the tail and until he's stabbed it together he cannot let go.
 

altamiro

G.Washington_Fuckyeah said:
Imagine Hitler, Himmler and some other lunatic folks of the NSDAP are killed in November or December 1941. A more moderate leadership comes to power, admittedly Nazis, but not as obsessed by "Land in the east" and "Final solutions" as Hitler and Himmler are.

They accept Russian superiority in terms of manpower and industrial ressources, but decide to exploit the German gains until then. While the Wehrmacht fights in front of Moscow, armistice negotiations begin in Sweden.

With the German advance between June and December 1941, how much is Stalin willing to give up? Musts are:
- all of Poland for Germany
- Carelia goes back to Finland
- Romania gains Bessarabia
- Japan gets nothing (little punishment)
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There are (rather unsubstantiated) claims that Stalin has offered /asked for peace with Germany either two or three times: first time in late 1941 at more or less Brest-Litovsk terms, second time some time late 1942 at Soviet borders of 1938 (leaving all outside it to Germany) and apparently some time later when germany was on the backfoot, offering Germany return to its borders of 1937 but taking everything in between as zone of influence. All have been rejected by Hitler.

Again, I am not sure at all how much truth there is to these claims but they sound at least plausible. If true, in December 1941 Germany has a chance to get back to Brest-Litowsk status, for as long as it will take before the inevitable Round II.

Edit: ninja'ed.

Edit 2: US in the war 1941 was pretty meaningless, nobody would have imagined something like OVERLORD in 1941 - at most defense of UK and a successful naval war with subsequent naval blockade of Germany, but not more. The determination of US was underestimated by friends and enemies alike.
 

Richter von Manthofen

But - if the Germans make peace with the East - would a "sane" German government just try the same with the west (assume US is still out - Germany negotiates with the French government (the only legitimate in Vichy ;))
 

Deleted member 1487

Glenn239 said:
Stalin demanded priority in Turkey and Bulgaria in November 1940 just to buy time? That doesn't make sense.
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No, once the fight started in 1941 the offers of peace were not serious, it was hoped to bog them down until other powers like the US got involved or to at least leverage the US and British to do something because the peace door was open.
 

torten

This is one of my favourite POD's.

The Germans could engage in such a peace if they believe that the USSR will be harder to fight than OTL in the first place, and demand a return to brest Litovsk, lots of cheap oil, and a military tribute, of something like 1000 T-34's a month and 50000 labourers a month in the belief that it will weaken the Soviet Union so they can kick in the door two years later.
 

Glenn239

Emperor Hammer said:
Any sources on these claims?
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http://www.worldfuturefund.org/wffmaster/Reading/Germany/Hitler-Molotov%20Meetings.htm#SOVIET REPLY

It's the November 26th entry.

Extracts w/r to Turkey and Bulgaria, none of which can be explained as "stalling for time" -

The Soviet Government is prepared to accept the draft of the Four Power Pact which the Reich Foreign Minister outlined in the conversation of November 13, regarding political collaboration and reciprocal economic [support [4]] subject to the following conditions:


2) Provided that within the next few months the security of the Soviet Union in the Straits is assured by the conclusion of a mutual assistance pact between the Soviet Union and Bulgaria, which geographically is situated inside the security zone of the Black Sea boundaries of the Soviet Union, and by the establishment of a base for land and naval forces of the U.S.S.R. within range of the Bosporus and the Dardanelles by means of a long-term lease.

Likewise, the draft of the protocol or agreement between Germany, Italy, and the Soviet Union with respect to Turkey should be amended so as to guarantee a base for light naval and land forces of the U.S.S.R. On [am] the Bosporus and the Dardanelles by means of a long-term lease, including-in case Turkey declares herself willing to join the Four Power Pact-a guarantee of the independence and of the territory of Turkey by the three countries named.

"This protocol should provide that in case Turkey refuses to join the Four Powers, Germany, Italy, and the Soviet Union agree to work out and to carry through the required military and diplomatic measures, and a separate agreement to this effect should be concluded.
 

thaddeus

Richter von Manthofen said:
But - if the Germans make peace with the East - would a "sane" German government just try the same with the west (assume US is still out - Germany negotiates with the French government (the only legitimate in Vichy ;))
Click to expand...

G.Washington_Fuckyeah said:
Yes, and? I never understood why Germany never concluded a peace with Vichy...
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there was tabled agreement Paris Protocols https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Protocols

Wiki says French were seeking better terms?

my understanding is that Germans were lackluster in pursuing any agreement (while winning) and French lackluster in pursuing one after invasion of USSR.

there was also issue of Germans using Syria as staging ground to aid rebellion in Iraq causing British invasion and compelling Vichy to allow Japanese into Indochina (in other words colonies falling away under German control.)

any sane German regime would have sought agreement with Vichy France prior to Soviet invasion both for economic reasons and (any possible) military support?
 

Richter von Manthofen

G.Washington_Fuckyeah said:
Yes, and? I never understood why Germany never concluded a peace with Vichy...
Click to expand...

A peace would likely have included the retreat of Germany from France - that was seen as a danger because until Peace with Britain was made the fear of the French joining the anti German side remained.

ANd as it was the French assets could be used to fed Germanys Needs
 
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