WI German soviet peace in 1942

Deleted member 1487

what if in 1942 Hitler killed and the successor makes peace with the soviets in 1942,how does that change ww2 and post ww2?
http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/06/...ler-ukraine-and-the-baltics-euromaidan-press/
Stalin supposedly made the offer early in the invasion, in July 1941. Supposing it is true there doesn't seem to have been an offer again in 1942. Even with a new leader would Stalin still be willing to make peace once the US was in?

Edit:
[URL]http://www.ukrweekly.com/old/archive/2002/430215.shtml[/URL]
This 2002 article from another Ukrainian paper claims there was a meeting in February 1942 that came to nought.

Assuming this happens, say Hitler is killed in a car accident or plane crash over winter and Goering takes over and cuts a Brest-Litovsk type deal ceding the Baltic states, Belarus, and Ukraine as well as the USSR providing large amounts of resources like oil, then a few things happen: Lend-Lease stops, but the USSR is then able to recover in peace and build up for round 2, the Allies are now in a tough position until the USSR is able/willing to rejoin the war and assuming they don't get involved in some other capacity like joining in the war in some capacity on Germany's side (part of Stalin's offer in 1942 according the article above), and Germany now has enormous savings of manpower and equipment as well as potentially getting promised oil, which would fix their fuel problems, something that would be especially dire as of 1942 IOTL.

That said Germany now has to garrison the East while Stalin would be seeding with partisans and supporting them from the remaining Soviet territory. It isn't just occupation, but also retaining a large armed force capable of dealing with the Soviets attacking. They have probably only about 1-2 years before Stalin is going to be looking for revenge. With the US in the war it is highly unlikely that they would be able to pull off a victory over the UK in the meantime, but now Germany does have the excess equipment, manpower, and supplies to send to Rommel, which makes 1942 in the desert very interesting. I'm sure Allied moral would take a sizeable hit, but without L-L they have more production capacity and shipping for their own needs.

Malta probably falls ITTL thanks to extra resources available to the Axis to blockade it and IOTL it was already a hair's breadth away from surrendering due to convoys to relieve it being stopped until part of the last one got through. However Germany will also be plowing major resources into the East to make the captured territory economically productive, which would take some time and IOTL started to bear fruit in summer 1943 right before the most important areas were lost in Ukraine. Perhaps ITTL they are ready sooner and start generating some returns for the investment. IOTL a significant factor fostering lack of collaboration with the Axis, besides the atrocities, was the feeling that Stalin was coming back, so working with the occupiers was going to make them suffer; if there is peace deal perhaps more people would be willing to work with what would look like the new regime, especially if it got them off the chopping block and a privileged position in the post-war regime.

It is tough to say with any sort of certainty about what would happen due to when or whether Stalin breaks the deal and attacks again as well as how things go in the Mediterranean in 1942 with the extra assets the Axis will have as well as the lack of losses the Axis minor allies would face ITTL (I'm assuming the peace deal happens before Sevastopol is attacked and long before the Stalingrad disaster happens), which for the Italians is pretty important, as the Italian military commitment to the East was pretty hefty for what they were capable of. So with that army returned along with it's equipment (not really a reason to keep it there with the war over) that is a lot of veterans and equipment that could either be used somewhere else or demobilized to help the economy, same with the Romanians minus the active fronts.

With the Japanese in the war and the European Axis focused on the British, the Brits will have a rough go in 1942, especially if the bulk of the Luftwaffe comes home, refits, and focuses on Britain again. I doubt Britain is going to get knocked out, but if the Soviets are out of the war, Japan is in, and Britain suffers OTL defeats, but worse with say Malta falling, then things could get interesting politically.
 
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It seems the best deal the Germans could make is in October-November 1941, before USA entry. A Brest-Litovsk type peace as wiking mentions above. (More likely if the Germans get close enough to Moscow to put it under artillery fire, I could see Stalin then wanting a deal if both Moscow and Leningrad were under siege). The deal would be have to be more like August 1918 Brest-Litovsk with the Germans getting the Kuban and Maikop as well, in exchange for pulling back from Leningrad and Moscow (I can't see Hilter making a deal unless some oil source would be under his control).

Once 1942 rolls around, the USA is in, maybe the Soviets would settle for their 1938 boundaries. Hitler won't settle for this, (perhaps he would if he could keep the Nikopol nickel mines, and the grain of the western Ukraine, Stalin wouldn't settle for that, unless he was much worse off).

Post Stalingrad its 1941 boundaries. Hitler won't settle for this.

Post Kursk until early 1944, its 1914 boundaries. (soviets getting old Austrian Galacia, Poland). Hitler wont settle for this.

But really after USA entry, all Stalin has to do is go Nationalist China mode and remain nominally in the war until the USA wins victory, even if doing much worse than OTL.
 
While the USA and the UK would love to see Stalin jump back in after a peace/armistice, I expect if and when he does LL is going to be stingier and more controlled. If the US/UK want shuttle bombing under THEIR conditions it will happen or else. I doubt there would be any deals with Stalin about "influence" in Eastern Europe as there were OTL, as it would be blindingly obvious that any agreement with Stalin is not worth the paper it is written on. I expect that, as far as the Red Army advances they will do their best to plant communism, and this may result in some of the countries that went red after WWII having the same fate, but not all of them. Absent the drag of the Eastern Front full on, it is likely the Germans are the first recipients of instant sunshine to bring the war to an end.
 

Deleted member 1487

Once 1942 rolls around, the USA is in, maybe the Soviets would settle for their 1938 boundaries. Hitler won't settle for this, (perhaps he would if he could keep the Nikopol nickel mines, and the grain of the western Ukraine, Stalin wouldn't settle for that, unless he was much worse off).

Post Stalingrad its 1941 boundaries. Hitler won't settle for this.

Post Kursk until early 1944, its 1914 boundaries. (soviets getting old Austrian Galacia, Poland). Hitler wont settle for this.

But really after USA entry, all Stalin has to do is go Nationalist China mode and remain nominally in the war until the USA wins victory, even if doing much worse than OTL.
The POD is Hitler dies at some point though, which leads the armistice.

While the USA and the UK would love to see Stalin jump back in after a peace/armistice, I expect if and when he does LL is going to be stingier and more controlled. If the US/UK want shuttle bombing under THEIR conditions it will happen or else. I doubt there would be any deals with Stalin about "influence" in Eastern Europe as there were OTL, as it would be blindingly obvious that any agreement with Stalin is not worth the paper it is written on. I expect that, as far as the Red Army advances they will do their best to plant communism, and this may result in some of the countries that went red after WWII having the same fate, but not all of them. Absent the drag of the Eastern Front full on, it is likely the Germans are the first recipients of instant sunshine to bring the war to an end.
I could see the Allies, specifically the US, allowing the USSR to make unrestricted purchases, but I have a hard time seeing congress allowing the USSR to continue to get any L-L now that the US has to bear a much higher burden of the war. I'm sure they'd love to see Stalin back in, but in the meantime they will be getting the brunt of the Axis warfighting potential and in early 1942 the US public is in a panic about the Pacific theater. Long term is hard to say what happens, especially if the Soviets are out and not viewed as a trustworthy partner even if they do come back in at some point.
 
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