WI German-Soviet Peace Before Pearl Harbor

Bumping thread. Is anyone willing to speculate on how the Malta siege would go with the extra aircraft I listed earlier? What would the effects of the island being neutralized in the late 1941-early 1942 timeframe be?
 
Malta was neutralised in early 1942. Fliegerkorps II arrived in December and rapidly eliminated Malta's striking power. British air superiority and striking power was only regained in May.

With additional Luftwaffe forces, that will be delayed or prevented. This will depend on the capacity of the airbases within striking range of Malta, which may prevent application of Luftwaffe power against the island, and the ability of the Luftwaffe to interdict convoys such as Harpoon-Vigorous and Pedestal.

The latter is probably more easily done than the former, given that Pedestal was a close-run thing. But continuing Club Runs will bleed Luftwaffe strength through the spring and summer, before, assuming an interdicted Pedestal, Malta surrenders via lack of food in August.
 

Seems a substantial improvement. How many more forces could be supplied with Malta out of the picture then from early 1942 on then?

Another idea. With the war with the USSR over and the FW 190 coming in, could it be possible to renew the BoB, win air superiority, and go after the ports on the British west coast used by the Atlantic convoys, and the convoys themselves as they come in to dock?
 

Deleted member 1487

Seems a substantial improvement. How many more forces could be supplied with Malta out of the picture then from early 1942 on then?
No idea.

Another idea. With the war with the USSR over and the FW 190 coming in, could it be possible to renew the BoB, win air superiority, and go after the ports on the British west coast used by the Atlantic convoys, and the convoys themselves as they come in to dock?
It was possible to renew it in 1942, but I doubt the fundamentals changed enough to win it. The West Coast ports are only accessible by night and by 1942 the Mosquito and better GCI and AI radar are on hand so it would be highly costly to try, but perhaps if they really experimented with Düppel they could do it; during the Baby Blitz in 1944 they used chaff to really disrupt Allied radar, but didn't have the numbers to use it the way the RAF did along the entire path of the bombers and still have the necessary payload to inflict sufficient damage on the target. However if they tried to do an aerial offensive by day and night perhaps they could distract the Allies long enough to get the uboats to do their job before US production could come into effect. Its really unlikely given the production disparity of the Allies and Germany even in 1942; as it was the Germans were able to leverage the advantage of the strategic defensive to inflict disproportionate casualties in the air through 1943, but on the offensive the situation would be reversed and Germany simply could not afford it like the Allies could.
 
It was possible to renew it in 1942, but I doubt the fundamentals changed enough to win it. The West Coast ports are only accessible by night and by 1942 the Mosquito and better GCI and AI radar are on hand so it would be highly costly to try, but perhaps if they really experimented with Düppel they could do it; during the Baby Blitz in 1944 they used chaff to really disrupt Allied radar, but didn't have the numbers to use it the way the RAF did along the entire path of the bombers and still have the necessary payload to inflict sufficient damage on the target. However if they tried to do an aerial offensive by day and night perhaps they could distract the Allies long enough to get the uboats to do their job before US production could come into effect. Its really unlikely given the production disparity of the Allies and Germany even in 1942; as it was the Germans were able to leverage the advantage of the strategic defensive to inflict disproportionate casualties in the air through 1943, but on the offensive the situation would be reversed and Germany simply could not afford it like the Allies could.

What if, as LordKalvert speculated, the Germans have been able to talk the Japanese into not attacking the US and thus the latter isn't in the war?
 
Interesting! How much would the North Africa supply situation improve in this scenario?

Taking Malta would slightly help the Axis and slightly hinder the UK, however the bigger factor to the Axis was the limited port facilities in Libya creating a bottleneck and then having to transport all the supplies to the front becoming more difficult the further the front moved east. There is no quick/easy solution to that since it would require building a lot of new infrastructure.

For Germany to "win" North Africa I think they would need to capture Alexandria intact and then use its port facilities.
 

Deleted member 1487

What if, as LordKalvert speculated, the Germans have been able to talk the Japanese into not attacking the US and thus the latter isn't in the war?
Total game changer. In both directions. The US is still sending LL and are still patrolling their zone of the Atlantic and may well provoke an incident with the Germans that starts a shooting war. However come 1942 if the US isn't in the war then there is no Paukenschlag and loss of over 3 million tons of US shipping, so the Uboat offensive starts falling off a year early. However the Germans have an advantage against the British alone, as they have to garrison the Far East against Japan, the Mediterranean against Italy, and also fight Germany in Europe. They are pulled in a bunch of directions, so even with a production advantage over Germany they still are at an overall deficit while trying to counter Italy and to a degree Japan. Things in Africa are less in their favor than IOTL, while there is no hope of winning in Europe now that the USSR is out and the US can't DoW Germany without activating the Axis pact and suffering the political consequences of provoking a war with Italy and Japan at the same time (which FDR was not willing to risk; he wanted the Axis to DoW him so he got the patriotic boost in public opinion, but the US public, despite being willing to risk war by supplying Britain with LL was not willing to declare it, something FDR lamented in late 1941 before Pearl Harbor).

Likely with the USSR defeated in 1941 and no war with the US by early 1942, then Britain probably start to consider peace as Rommel pulls his Gazala victory and invade Egypt, especially if Malta falls around the same time. In early/mid-1942 the Mosquito isn't around yet and night bombing of Liverpool is certainly possible. Without hope of US entry I think Britain exits the war during 1942 due to no hope of victory.
 
Total game changer. In both directions. The US is still sending LL and are still patrolling their zone of the Atlantic and may well provoke an incident with the Germans that starts a shooting war. However come 1942 if the US isn't in the war then there is no Paukenschlag and loss of over 3 million tons of US shipping, so the Uboat offensive starts falling off a year early. However the Germans have an advantage against the British alone, as they have to garrison the Far East against Japan, the Mediterranean against Italy, and also fight Germany in Europe. They are pulled in a bunch of directions, so even with a production advantage over Germany they still are at an overall deficit while trying to counter Italy and to a degree Japan. Things in Africa are less in their favor than IOTL, while there is no hope of winning in Europe now that the USSR is out and the US can't DoW Germany without activating the Axis pact and suffering the political consequences of provoking a war with Italy and Japan at the same time (which FDR was not willing to risk; he wanted the Axis to DoW him so he got the patriotic boost in public opinion, but the US public, despite being willing to risk war by supplying Britain with LL was not willing to declare it, something FDR lamented in late 1941 before Pearl Harbor).

Likely with the USSR defeated in 1941 and no war with the US by early 1942, then Britain probably start to consider peace as Rommel pulls his Gazala victory and invade Egypt, especially if Malta falls around the same time. In early/mid-1942 the Mosquito isn't around yet and night bombing of Liverpool is certainly possible. Without hope of US entry I think Britain exits the war during 1942 due to no hope of victory.

I suppose Germany would then go after the USSR again in the mid-forties. The question then becomes would Britain have the strength/willingness to renew the war, because if not the Soviets are going to lose for sure.
 

Deleted member 1487

I suppose Germany would then go after the USSR again in the mid-forties. The question then becomes would Britain have the strength/willingness to renew the war, because if not the Soviets are going to lose for sure.
They'd probably turn on the USSR in 1943 right after getting peace with the UK. I doubt the UK would want to immediately restart a war then if the US isn't getting involved.
 
They'd probably turn on the USSR in 1943 right after getting peace with the UK. I doubt the UK would want to immediately restart a war then if the US isn't getting involved.

Okay, then. What would happen with the UK? It would seem to me that with all the resources the Germans now control and the new submarines Britain's chances of survival in a round two in the mid-to-late forties depend on how much assistance the US is willing to give.
 

Deleted member 1487

Okay, then. What would happen with the UK? It would seem to me that with all the resources the Germans now control and the new submarines Britain's chances of survival in a round two in the mid-to-late forties depend on how much assistance the US is willing to give.
Depends. All the debt they took on internally will start coming due, Labor will probably demand elections and win big in them and start on their agenda, India will want immediate independence and the colonies and commonwealth will want their own way, etc. Britain will have a lot of issues to sort out, not least of which is the threat of a victorious German dominating Europe and setting up a continental tariff they are excluded from, while the US is going to demand payment for LL. If the US is willing to give large low interest loans things are somewhat better, but if not Britain is in financial trouble. They probably start resembling the state in the book "1984".
 
I wonder, would it be possible for a defeated Soviet Union to invade Japanese occupied China in an effort to acquire Chinese volunteers to take on the Germans at a later date.
 
I wonder, would it be possible for a defeated Soviet Union to invade Japanese occupied China in an effort to acquire Chinese volunteers to take on the Germans at a later date.

Its possible, but I doubt the cautious Stalin would approve of such an idea. The USSR's problem in this situation isn't lack of manpower, its lack of industrial and agricultural production following the loss of Ukraine. But if the Soviets became desperate enough, I can see him perhaps asking the Chinese Communists to provide what 'volunteers' they could.
 
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