WI: German SAM's lead to earlier space race?

Now, a train of thought entered my brains...

WI, instead of V-2 Germany focuses on shorter range tactical missile, with roughly 100nm range. ie. enough to reach London from occupied France. While this missile is being developed, by 1942 a need for new kind of aerial defence surfaces to replace AAA as American and British aerial offensives intensify. Thus the missile is developed both for anti-aircraft and tactical missile duties.

Enter mid-1944 and the Wasserfall-ite missile enters service. While not capable of stopping the Allied bomber offensives, it inflicts substantial casualties and require a number of sorties to be redirected towards SEAD duties. Meanwhile, a smaller tactical missiles manage to hit London, although not as in many numbers as the V-2's of OTL.

Now, the WW2 ends roughly as in OTL with atomic bombs finishing Japan. USA, UK and USSR all know that while bombers can get through they will be vulnerable compared to missiles as methods of atomic bomb delivery. Could this result in faster development of IRBM's and ICBM's, perhaps with satellites already in late 1940's and men in orbit by early 1950's?

As a historical comparison I would put forward the RN & USN reaction to threat that Soviets might fully deploy German Type XXI, resulting in radical investment in new ASW technology.
 
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Deleted member 1487

Not sure how that would help compared to the V-2, but IOTL a major problem was the death of Walter Thiel in the bombing of Peenemunde in 1943:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Thiel
He was arguably the most important of the scientists working on the V-2 and the SAM version, the Wasserfall missile.

Have him survive and his recommendation to ditch the V-2 be taken, with the focus then put on the Wasserfall.
 
The Henschel Hs 117 Schmetterling, that was both an AAM and SAM, would probably be the best of the lot at being
  • cheap to manufacture
  • sufficient accuracy, having command guidance and proximity fuzing
That bomber losses high enough to give 8thAF pause, and without the V-2(Sorry VB,you get sidelined in this TL) and V-1 pulse jets still do a lot of damage to SE London

So the future looks to be cruise missiles, especially since VE Days is close to OTL, Germany collapsing before the Bomb could be dropped on them, but not before the Germans are able to get example to Japan, who are able to get a few SAM sites going that do get a few B-29s kills before august, 1945

So the War is over, and even the B-29 is not immune to SAMs

Problem is, the Soviets have in the Occupation Zone, some of the facilities that built the Schmetterling, so they have that tech, and the factories to make them.

So the Manned Bomber probably won't get thru in the future.

Now how to deliver Atomic Bomb?

That's almost OTL thinking.

From the wiki

Army planners began planning for a wide variety of post-war missile systems that varied from short-range ballistic missiles to long range flying bombs. After considerable internal debate among Army branches, in August 1945 these were codified in a classified document outlining many such systems, among them a variety of nuclear-armed cruise missiles, essentially V-1s with extended range and the greater payload needed to carry a nuclear warhead.[3] There were three broad outlines depending on range, one for a missile flying 175 to 500 miles (282–805 km), another 500 to 1,500 miles (800–2,410 km), and finally one for 1,500 to 5,000 miles (2,400–8,000 km). Both subsonic and supersonic designs would be considered.[4]


Competing designs
The various proposals were sent to seventeen aviation firms on 31 October 1945. Of the many proposals received, six companies were granted development contracts. Submissions for the longer-range requirements were all based on cruise missile designs, while the shorter-range examples were a mixture of designs. These were assigned designations in keeping with the USAAF's Experimental Engineering Section's "MX" series.

NAA chief designer, Dutch Kindelberger, was convinced missiles were the future, and hired William Bollay from the US Navy's Bureau of Aeronautics to run their newly formed research laboratory. Bollay had previously run the Navy's turbojet development. Bollay arrived to find the Army proposals, and decided to submit a short-range design based on a winged ballistic missile based on the German A-4b design (sometimes known as the A-9), a development of the basic V-2. On 24 March 1946, NAA received letter contract W33-038-ac-1491 for this missile, designated MX-770. The initial design called for a range of 500 miles (800 km) with a 2,000-pound (910 kg) payload, but on 26 July this was increased to 3,000 pounds (1,400 kg).[5]

A number of other designs were also accepted, but these were all cruise missile designs to fill the longer range requirements. These were Martin's MX-771-A for a subsonic missile and -B for a supersonic version, MX-772-A and -B from Curtiss-Wright, MX-773-A and -B from Republic Aircraft, and MX-775-A and -B from Northrop. It was intended that one subsonic and one supersonic design would be put into production, and these were granted the designations SSM-A-1 and SSM-A-2, respectively.[4] The only ballistic missile in the group, MX-774, went to Consolidated-Vultee.[2]


So OTL the armed forces were looking that way, but somewhat sidelined by the new SAC and the Bomber Mafia, but the

MX-770 North American B-64 Navajo surface-to-surface cruise missile
MX-771 Martin B-61 Matador surface-to-surface cruise missile
MX-774 Convair HiRoc test vehicle , that led to the B-65 Atlas
MX-775A Northrop B-62 Snark surface-to-surface cruise missile

Note: they were given 'B' designations, as in Bomber

OTL, the MX-772 Curtiss-Wright surface-to-surface missile and MX-773 Republic surface-to-surface missile never made it past draftboard studies.
This TL, maybe they put more effort into it

But this TL gets us a lot of slow and fast cruise missiles, with only one ballistic missile, from Convair. OTL Atlas was greenlit just for the delivery time being in minutes, rather than hours to the USSR.

So without the V-2 being deployed, doesn't really get you into space any faster that I can tell from more SAMs in 1944 in their place
 
So without the V-2 being deployed, doesn't really get you into space any faster that I can tell from more SAMs in 1944 in their place

But with SAM power demonstrated, would the British go on funding for four different kind of jet bombers, but instead, say, two kind of V-bombers and two kinds of MRBM? After all, British AAA and German SAM's would demonstrate the possible vulnerability of cruise missiles as well.

Or, in case of US, would there be more interest in funding a MRBM and ICBM earlier, thus not cutting MX-774 at early stage? Considering there were multiple bomber projects at the time, could one be cut in favour of earlier ballistic missiles?

How about, as a side effect, the effect on fighters? Would there be more effort towards various SAM projects in the US (for USAF, USN and US Army), Britain (all three services) and the Soviet Union? British rocket interceptor saga might be sidelined...
 
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But with SAM power demonstrated, would the British go on funding for four different kind of jet bombers, but instead, say, two kind of V-bombers and two kinds of MRBM? After all, British AAA and German SAM's would demonstrate the possible vulnerability of cruise missiles as well.

Or, in case of US, would there be more interest in funding a MRBM and ICBM earlier, thus not cutting MX-774 at early stage? Considering there were multiple bomber projects at the time, could one be cut in favour of earlier ballistic missiles?

Since bombers would be seen as far more vulnerable, you would see them transition to being haulers of Stand Off Cruise missile far sooner, for the Rascal (that was originally tagged a B-64) and the Hound Dog for the US, and the Soviets with their Mig-15 based cruise missiles for their Tu-4s, plus their versions of the Navaho long range, high Mach Cruise missile
ru_iccm.gif
being 8500km range missiles
OTL these lost out to the SS-6/R7 ICBM much as Navaho lost out to the Atlas.

I'd see the Brits putting more emphasis on Blue Steel.

And in the US, yes, it's likely the B-36 is curtailed with more $$$ tossed at cruise missiles, and Convair to finish off their rocket.

The Atlas could not have gone on without the Navaho, that supplied the motor family.
It's likely that this TL would see 'Big Atlas' a five motor cluster, and be similar in capacity to the Soviet SS-6, and would be useful for a later manned Space program.
mx1953.jpg
This was because from the various delays, it was estimated that by 1958 when Atlas would be flying, the weight of H-bombs would be reduced.

Without those delays, Atlas would be set to loft an 8000 pound warhead over to the USSR
 
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OTL these lost out to the SS-6/R7 ICBM much as Navaho lost out to the Atlas.

I'd see the Brits putting more emphasis on Blue Steel.

And in the US, yes, it's likely the B-36 is curtailed with more $$$ tossed at cruise missiles, and Convair to finish off their rocket.

The Atlas could not have gone on without the Navaho, that supplied the motor family.
It's likely that this TL would see 'Big Atlas' a five motor cluster, and be similar in capacity to the Soviet SS-6, and would be useful for a later manned Space program.

I think intercontinental cruise missiles would still head to same problems as in OTL, thus the ICBM would win, but ITTL faster than OTL. With miniaturization of warheads arriving with OTL schedule the Western missiles (perhaps with OTL like split British MRBM and American ICBM) would have to be heavier. Incidentally, this would help manned missions and with slightly earlier schedule for manned spaceflight we might see other manned spy platforms than historical Almaz, as presumably electronics development would go with their OTL schedule.
 
I think intercontinental cruise missiles would still head to same problems as in OTL, thus the ICBM would win, but ITTL faster than OTL. With miniaturization of warheads arriving with OTL schedule the Western missiles (perhaps with OTL like split British MRBM and American ICBM) would have to be heavier. Incidentally, this would help manned missions and with slightly earlier schedule for manned spaceflight we might see other manned spy platforms than historical Almaz, as presumably electronics development would go with their OTL schedule.


With fewer big Bombers, there would be more and improved rocket engine technology for the Intercontinental cruise missiles that would pass over to a Space program, but that time will still be in the late '50s.

Might even see the IGY Satellite attempt from an air launch from a Bomber for a hopped up Stand off Missile, rather than from a US Atlas or Sov SS-6.

Maybe the Brits get the prize for putting up a Vanguard sized beeping Softball from a rigged two stage Blue Steel from a Valiant
 
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