WI:German-Russian War 1880's

What if a war between Russia and Germany broke out in the 1880's? Who would win? Who would the other powers in Europe side with?

General Background

In the aftermath of the Franco-Prussian War, Germany felt that it needed to secure its eastern flank. Russia was seen as a new enemy, that if allied with France, could destroy Germany. To deal with this Bismarck helped established the League of Three Emperors in 1873 with Russia and Austria-Hungary, thus establishing peace.

By 1878 though tensions had grown between three powers and the alliance was disbanded. Germany then signed the dual alliance with Austria-Hungary, in 1879.

Now in OTL the alliance of Three Emperors was resigned in 1881, establishing peace again. My question is what if it wasn't and tensions between Germany and Russia boiled over?

I know that von Moltke the Elder had already drawn up plans for an eastern war and that General Alfred von Waldersee was pushing for action against Russia.
 

Cryostorm

Monthly Donor
Well Austria is almost certainly going to side with Germany since it has the alliance, not to mention a major defeat of Russia would lessen its influence in the Balkans. France is likely in no real position to fight against Germany so soon after its last defeat. Italy may think about fighting against Austria but I do not see it entering the fight unless Russia is winning. The Ottomans may jump in for some revenge of the Crimean War. The big wild card will be what Britain does, it has reasons to be against the expansion of either party but is likely to be more anti-Russia do to their history and proximity to each other.

I personally think Germany and Austria would win which would strengthen both nations, weaken the only threat to the east, and likely result in a Eastern Europe similar to post WWI which would make France's desire for revenge nearly impossible without the Russia as a second front.
 
But Russia might become as revanchist as France did OTL. That might mean considerable effort to modernize their armed forces, and seeking new allies (possibly even Japan. )
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Austro-German intervention in 1877-78 Russo-Turkish war?

Austro-German intervention in 1877-78 Russo-Turkish war?

Best,
 
The big wild card will be what Britain does, it has reasons to be against the expansion of either party but is likely to be more anti-Russia do to their history and proximity to each other.

Given it was during this time that the word "jingoism" was coined in relation to British reaction to sending the Fleet into the Black Sea I know who the Tory government and the population were going to back.

Britain and Russia where squabbling over Afganistan where as the Queen's oldest daughter was the wife of the German heir apparent.....

My guess would be German push through Poland, the Austrians push through the Balkans and Britain supports with Naval blockades of Black Sea , Baltic and Artic ports to stop re-supply / support. Also working diplomatically to stop the French from joining in.

Massive butterflies now appear, at the very least WWI disappears as Germany no longer feels threatened by Russia and the Balkans are more firmly in the Austro-Hungarian sphere of influance.
 
If Austria-Hungary was in such a state that it felt itself strong enough to intervene, surely it would have intervened on Russia's side.

Certainly not after the Peace of San Stefano in 1878.
Austria had two big interests in the Balkans in that time:
a) keeping the Danube down to the Black Sea free from overwhelming Russian control
b) keeping the option of Austrian expansion into Serbia, Macedonia and towards the port city of Salonica open
The Treaty of San Stefano offended both Austrian goals by creating a Greater Bulgarian puppet of Russia.

img1_3.jpg


So a war would probably need the Russian empire not backing down *and* at the same time interpreting Bismarck's efforts (to replace San Stefano with a commonly acceptable revision) as casus belli.
That would probably bring the UK into the war on the Austrian-Hungarian/German/Ottoman side, with France uneasily neutral: They had threatened war against Russia as well in 1878, but allying with Germany is politically impossible (and allying with Russia against Germany and the UK suicidally insane).
Expect widely differing war aims: The UK will be content to see Russian influence in the Balkans and the Caucasus reduced, Austria will hope for an informal hegemony over Romania, Serbia and Macedonia, whereas Germany ... well what will Bismarck want? Certainly less insane stuff than his sucessors in 1914+, but what? Breaking Russia's power (to the extent that even a French-Russian alliance cannot hurt Germany) sounds very attractive, even without direct annexations, but will the UK accept a cordon sanitaire from Reval to the Crimea? Sounds unlikely.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Yes, that was sort of my thought

The Austrians have ambitions on the Adriatic coast south to Greece; the Russians have ambitions in the Balkans from the Black Sea as far west and south as they can get.

The Russians also have ambitions in eastern Anatolia, which is the Ottoman/Turkish heartland, if anything is...what are the Turks willing to give up to bring a Christian ally into the field against Russia in order to protect Anatolia?

The Germans, Austro-Hungarians, and Russians all have conflicting ambitions in north-central Europe (today's Poland, etc.); the Germans and Russians have conflicting ambitions in the Baltics.

Are the Ottomans willing to make a deal with the Austrians in the Balkans to prevent a Russian "win" that could lead to Russian penetration of Anatolia?

If so, are the Germans willing to come to agreement with the Austrians mutual spheres in (for lack of a better term) "Russian" Poland in return for their involvement?

Obviously, none of the above were deep enough conflicts to lead to a wider war in 1877-78, but given that all parties had been at odds with one or the other over the previous quarter century, certainly doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility.

If the Germans do get involved in a war with the Russians, do the French (and, potentially, the Danes) see a chance to reexamine the results of their previous conflicts?

And if so, do the British remain in splendid isolation? Do their interests in the low countries and/or propping up the Ottomans come into play?

It has always struck me that the period 1850-80 was probably the most likely for a major European conflict in the century (or so) between Waterloo and Sarajevo, precisely because of the consolidation of Germany and Italy and the three-cornered competition over the Balkans between Austria, Russia, and Turkey.

Best,
 
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